Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 43

 

 

Wednesday: Partly Sunny. High: 61
 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 34

 

Thursday: Increasing Clouds. High: 52

Thursday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Breezy. Low: 35

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:

Mild temperatures will continue on Wednesday before a weak cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon, leading to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Our next weather system will move in from the south Thursday evening resulting in rain Thursday night. The rain could be heavy at times with very breezy conditions as well. At this time, a switchover to snow Friday morning is possible, so keep up with the most recent forecast as this event gets closer.

- Peine

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smith

Date Issued: 02/28/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 18Z GFS model was utilized for this forecast due to the consistency of temperatures and precipitation amounts forecasted by previous model runs. The primary focus for this forecast period is a strong surface low pressure system that will affect the central CONUS Thursday evening into Friday. 

 

At 250 mb, quasi-zonal flow is dominant for the CONUS, helping to keep conditions relatively calm for central Missouri this afternoon with lots of sunshine and temperatures near 60 degrees. Overnight on Tuesday, the pattern aloft will begin to shift more to the southwest as a potent mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the desert southwest. Cloud cover tonight will be minimal, yet the dominant pattern aloft will keep low temperatures into the low 40s (avg. low 31). Late tonight into early tomorrow morning a weak cold front will push through the region from the northwest. The aforementioned front is associated with an area of low pressure that will move across the northern plains Wednesday morning. High temperatures will not be affected too much behind the frontal passage with most guidance suggesting afternoon temperatures in the upper-50s to low-60s. The aforementioned trough will continue to deepen across the southwest CONUS on Wednesday and begin to pick up speed. Wednesday night conditions look to be mostly clear as the trough is still over portions of Arizona and New Mexico. With limited cloud cover and light northerly winds at the surface, low temperatures should be near average for this time of the year. 

 

On Thursday, the trough will be even stronger due its negative tilt, favoring more divergence aloft and stronger pockets of vorticity out ahead of it. Cloud cover will gradually increase throughout the day from south to north and help keep high temperatures in the low 50s out ahead of the powerful surface low pressure system. This low will continue to deepen heading into the evening hours and this is when we expect rainfall to begin for central Missouri. Confidence is still relatively low on the track that this system will take, but as of now the center will be located near northwest Arkansas Thursday evening. With the low forecasted to track near our region, wind gusts over 40 mph are not out of the question for Thursday night. The low pressure will close off over eastern Missouri and help advect moisture and provide strong ascent. The current forecast would favor higher rainfall totals for our area with an 1”-1.5” possible Thursday night. The low pressure will continue to push off to the northwest overnight as the center should be in west-central Illinois by Friday morning. Confidence is very low as to the possibility of seeing accumulating snow on the backside of the low with temperatures forecasted to be in the mid-30s Friday morning.

 

Future forecast shifts should monitor the track of the approaching low pressure system and pay attention to the possibility of snow Friday morning. 

-McCormack 

 

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 63

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 43
 

Wednesday: Partly Sunny. High: 57

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 34

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

 

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

Mild temperatures along with few clouds will be prevalent for this week. A weak cold front is expected to pass through Wednesday afternoon which may impact the high temperature Wednesday. However, the cold front is expected to be very weak meaning that precipitation won't occur Wednesday.

- Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier

Date Issued: 02/28/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

For this forecast period, dry and mild weather is expected to persist for the next few days. Central Missouri will have a cold front passage during the day Wednesday which will have to be monitored. At this point in time, it appears to be a dry frontal passage. However, daytime high temperatures will be affected from north to south in Missouri as the front moves through. Both the GFS20 and NAM12 models were utilized for this forecast due to the similar temperature differences from this morning. 

Zonal Flow aloft will dominate the CONUS for the rest of Tuesday. This will allow for calm and tranquil weather both aloft and at the surface. A strong subtropical jet will be positioned over Missouri today and into tomorrow which will pave the way for the next storm system later this week. Later this evening, a warm front is expected to pass through. Some clouds are possible with the passing of this front, but precipitation won't be a factor due the lack of rising motion and any sustainable moisture aloft. 

Wednesday will have a slight shift to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching long-wave trough on the west coast. Although, Wednesday should still be warmer than average for this time of year, daytime highs are expected to be slightly cooler as weak cold front will sag south. Both models were in agreement with the passing of this front occurring around midday which would hinder temperatures reaching into the 60s by afternoon. Once again, not much moisture will be prevalent for Mid-MO until you get to far SE Missouri where moisture will be enhanced.

The upper-level low associated with the long-wave trough to our west will become cutoff Thursday morning over the Mountain West. The low is expected to eject off the southern Rockies and into the Newtexlahoma region during the day Thursday. It will strengthen rapidly as it moves through Oklahoma Thursday afternoon which will bring us upper air divergence late Thursday afternoon. Cloud cover will move in rapidly during the day Thursday as well as a strong easterly wind ahead of the strengthening surface low.

While the rain is expected to hold off until Thursday evening, it is important to note that rising motion and increased moisture will be getting added to Mid-Mo around Friday 00z. Although this is the cutoff point of our forecast period, the next group should monitor the speed and track of the surface low as it will impact precipitation chances and timing for Thursday/Friday.

-Simmons

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 36

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 63

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 41

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear with increasing clouds Low: 34

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

Spring-like conditions continue through the week with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds will be generally calm making things rather comfortable for late February so enjoy them while you can!

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 2/27/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Above average temperatures and clear conditions are the main story for the first half of the week. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal with generally sunny conditions giving us a nice taste of spring. For this forecast we primarily used the GFS over the NAM due to it having a better handle on surface temperatures due to the development of the surface high situated to our north. 

The weak upper-level riding currently residing overhead is continuing to move to our east as we see a trough begin to dive down across the pacific northwest. A large blocking high situated over the southern Caribbean has locked the subtropical jet across the CONUS which, as the trough across the Continental divide pushes further south, will couple with the sub tropical jet parking a jet streak directly over central Missouri through the entirety of the forecast through Thursday. As we head into Tuesday we see a weak low-level high pressure develop across the Central Plains, this will leave us with generally clear skies with light winds. Temperatures will hinge on the progression of the disturbance that moves through Tuesday afternoon which will slowly push a lack luster warm front through the state. Poor saturation throughout the atmosphere will prevent anything in the way of precipitation, however a few upper-level clouds are expected. 

We will see a feeble shortwave traverse along the jet-stream as we move into Wednesday morning. This is in connection to a low-level low pressure will move off the upper Rockies into the northern plains. This will swing a moisture starved cold front through the area which will bringing nothing more then a slight wind shift from the southwest to the northwest which will keep our Wednesday slightly cooler than Tuesday but still above average. As prior mentioned, there will be nothing in the way of moisture across all levels of the atmosphere so no clouds are expected let alone any precipitation leading to dry FROPA. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will feature another subtle wind shift to an easterly direction as another lacking surface high will develop over Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

Future forecasters should make notice of the passage of the warm front Tuesday as that may cause temperatures to under preform current expectations. Additionally, strong confidence across all major models that the deepening trough located across the Pacific Northwest will dive south bringing a powerful low-pressure system into the region which needs to be closely monitored.

-Russell

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 
 

Monday: Decreasing clouds. High: 63

 

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 36

 

Tuesday: Sunny. High 63

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 41


 
  

Wednesday: Sunny: High: 58

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

Hold on to your hats! Monday will be a very windy day with gusts into the 50 MPH range. Tie down any loose furniture because it could blow away with the wind. The rest of the week looks to be calm with above average temperatures.

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Forecasters: Herion, Jones

Date Issued: 2/24/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Overall the beginning part of the week will be quiet with pleasant temperatures reaching into the mid-60s for high due to southerly winds driving up the warm air. Today both the GFS20 and NAM12 were in good agreement with placements of front but the GFS20 was chosen for its track record with moderate weather. 

 

Today on the 250mb map the upper level jet and the subtropic jet appear to be coupling as a high ridge covers the Midwest. Divergence aloft is relatively non-existent contributing to the quiet conditions at the lower levels. At 500mb the LPS that was over the CWA is being pushed off to the Northeast leaving behind zonal flow that will remain for the rest of this forecast. 700mb remains quiet as well with no moisture entering the area. The 850mb has high humidity into the afternoon today but with none of the other components things will stay dry this afternoon. At the surface there are strong southerly winds blowing from 20-30kt pushing the warm air from the south giving the CWA a high of 63. 

Tuesday the jet streak move over mid Missouri at 18:00z for the remainder of the forecast. Winds aloft will be around 160kt. At 500mb and 700mb much remains the same with strong zonal flow and little vorticity. Off to the SW over Nevada there is a start of a building troup which will bring changes in the forecast towards the end of week. Relative humidity remains low but a strong band of WAA hits the CWA at 18:00z Tuesday. 850mb is quiet with all humidity gone by Tuesday, a weak HPS replaces the LPS that will be moved out completely by 03:00Z Tuesday. Surface winds start westerly on Tuesday but transition clockwise into southerly winds by 18:00Z. These winds will drive warm southern temperatures into the area giving us another day in the low 60s.

Wednesday looks to be a repeat of Tuesday with the jet streak continuing to stay over the CWA. Zonal flow is continued to be seen at the 500mb keeping things quiet. The 700mb map shows a LPS moving to the North of Missouri pushing down bring CAA around 18:00. 850mb doesn't show any humidity entering the area for the remainder of the forecast shift. At the surface a LPS covers the area and winds will shift from the south to the North around 15:00z. Temperatures will be cooler as a result with a high of 58. 

Future forecaster should pay close attention to the deep trough building to the SW which is looking the bring cooler temperatures and some possible precipitation. 

- Jones

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 
 

Friday Night: Overcast Clouds with a chance for mixed drizzle and freezing drizzle Low: 30

 

Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 52

 

Saturday Night: Overcast Clouds. Low: 42

Sunday: Overcast Clouds. High: 61


 
  

Sunday Night: Overcast Clouds with rainfall. Low: 52

 

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Discussion: 

A slight chance for freezing drizzle may freeze elevated surfaces on Friday night. Temperatures will warm up afterwards until a strong low pressure system arrives, bringing around 0.5"-1" of rain into the region Sunday night into Monday morning.

-Sausen

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Forecasters: Sausen, Thomas, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/24/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

 

Drizzle, with the potential for some very light freezing precip, is expected tonight, and significant rainfall totals along with a chance for some rumbles of thunder will occur Sunday night into Monday morning.
For this forecast, we chose the GFS as it handled the placement of the surface low off the coast of California marginally better than the NAM.
A mid to upper level trough with a slight negative tilt is forecasted to make its’ way across the forecast area tonight. Current radar is already showing scattered precip over NW MO, slowly migrating southeast.Weak but present vertical velocity aligned with the plume of near surface moisture should be sufficient to produce scattered drizzle, though the precipitation type is in question. GFS soundings show a very significant dry layer close to the surface that takes its’ time to erode, though the 700-850mb level is quite moist by the start of the evening. The DGZ looks to remain quite dry, however surface temps should be hovering around freezing. Have gone with mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle for tonight, with precip chances ending before sunrise tomorrow.
Could see some light rain around 03z Sunday, as temps look to stay uniformly above freezing far up into the 700mb layer associated with a second weak shortwave trough, though it’s unlikely that we’ll see more than a trace, as the moisture content is mostly concentrated in the upper levels, with very weak forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave.
The main problem of the forecast period is the looming low pressure system, currently centered over California at the surface. A weak shortwave is progged to follow just out ahead of it, separating some of the Gulf moisture away from the larger low. 700mb WAA is present in conjunction with the shortwave, pushing surface temps up into the 60’s on Sunday. With a moist surface to 850mb layer, widespread low level clouds and light rainfall seem likely until the evening as mid level moisture surges in with the main system. Widespread cloudiness during the day will severely limit destabilization, though the GFS shows MUCAPE values of around 300-400 j/kg, so cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two Sunday evening.
Going into Sunday night, PWAT values increase significantly, topping out at about 1.3 inches by midnight. With building 700mb vertical velocity overnight, significant rainfall is possible. Looking at NBM QPF outputs, have gone with a higher end precip amount for the period.

Thomas

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Friday: Few upper level clouds, increasing clouds in the evening. High: 40

  

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 30

 

Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 52

Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 42


 
  

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 59

 

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Discussion: 

Highs for this weekend are once again above average for the season. Friday night the winds shift from the east to the north which will have our low slightly below freezing, however Sunday the winds will back to the south which will help bring up our temperatures into the upper 50's. 

-Allen

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Forecasters: Sallot, Allen, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/23/2023 10:20 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

 

The main concern of this forecast is the possibility for precipitation Friday night and the incoming low pressure system at the end of the forecast period.


The forecast area sits in the right entrance region of a jet streak until about Sun 21Z. For Friday, this jet streak position encourages divergence aloft. At 500mb, a shortwave passes through northern IA overnight from about Fri 21Z to Sat 6Z. While this shortwave is north of the forecast area, it will bring upper level clouds and light precipitation Friday night.


Despite the upper level clouds and plentiful moisture at 700mb and 850mb on Friday night, there is a significant dry layer in the mid levels of the atmosphere and a dry layer near the surface. As such, any precipitation Friday night will likely be very light, if it reaches the surface at all. This saturation and possible precipitation is expected around 00Z to 03Z on Saturday. Above freezing soil temperatures Friday morning, coupled with a daytime high of 40F, the ground temperature will not be cold enough for freezing rain, so the expected precip type is rain. Confidence is low in any of this precip reaching the surface due to the dry near surface layer.


A weak high pressure system in IA and southern MN on Friday leads to northeast flow at the surface for the forecast area all day on Friday and overnight into Saturday. This wind flow will keep temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s on Friday.


Upper level flow remains fairly zonal until about Saturday 12Z, when it shifts to a more southwesterly component. In the lower levels, a high pressure system over FL brings even more southerly flow to the forecast area. This should raise temperatures into the 50s on Saturday.


The next main concern for the forecast period is a deep trough approaching from the southwest US. As this trough approaches, flow at all levels becomes more southerly, bringing warm air into the forecast area, warming temperatures into the upper 50s on Sunday. The approaching trough and its associated cold front will reach the forecast area overnight into Monday. However, precipitation is expected to accompany this front, which may begin around 00Z on Monday. The next forecasting shift should be aware of this incoming through and precip.



Sallot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

  Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 23

 

   Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 40

 

 

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy. High: 40

Saturday: Partly Sunny. Low: 30


 

   Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

Cooler temperatures will remain the common trend going into Friday. Going into the weekend the warmer air returns bring out highs into the 50s! Clouds building through the weekend bringing with it a chance of rain Friday night into Saturday morning.

-Labit

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Forecasters: Labit, Easter, Macko

Date Issued: 2/23/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Clear skies and colder temperatures have made a comeback this afternoon after a cold frontal passage yesterday brought storms into the region. This passage advected cold air into the region and cooled our temperatures down to the 30s this afternoon. A high-pressure system over Florida and a low-pressure system in the pacific Northwest is keeping our upper-level flow meridional as we head into the weekend. 

 

Friday afternoon at 18Z we start to see a shift in the upper-level flow to more of a zonal flow as that low-pressure moves off to the northeast. Zonal flow will stay until the end of the forecast period. Divergence is also present aloft due to jet-streak coupling over the area producing off and on waves of upper-level divergence throughout the forecast period as well. 9Z on Friday, moisture enters the upper-levels as warm air advects into the area and saturates us aloft until 21Z. However, we don't become saturated near the surface until 03Z Saturday. Due to the timing of the moisture not aligning in all levels, precipitation is not expected in our area. Any precipitation that occurs will be located south of our region. The GFS does resolve some showers possibly getting close to the region late night on Friday into early morning hours on Saturday however any precipitation that falls will have to overcome significant amounts of dry air keeping the precipitation very light. Due to the warm air advection and warming surface temperatures, any precipitation that falls will be rain. Lower-level saturation stays mainly confined to southern Missouri throughout the remainder of the forecast period with the upper-levels remaining dry. We should see clouds start to clear up through out Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. 

 

The next forecasting shift might want to take note of the large low-pressure system moving our way off the coast of California which has the potential to cause severe weather to the west of the region in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday.

 

-Easter

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 41

Thursday Night: Clouds moving in. Mostly Clear. Low: 23

 

 

 

 

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 40

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 30



 

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

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Discussion: 

After Wednesday's showers, expect colder temperatures today and tomorrow with a high of 41 and 40 degrees respectively. However, at the end of the period on Saturday we will get warmer weather, reaching into the fifties!

-Samson

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Forecasters: Hefner, Samson, Macko

Date Issued: 2/23/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

After the rain Wednesday, a cold front passed through Columbia leading to colder temperatures and clearer skies for Thursday. For our forecasting shift, the GFS20 model was favored due to its better handling of current weather conditions.

At the 300mb level for Thursday, Columbia will begin on the east side of a positively-tilted trough centered over the Pacific Northwest United States. As this trough begins to dissipate, the Columbia area will begin to transition into zonal flow; however, this will not come to fruition until Friday night. Additionally, upper-level wind divergence is sparce both Thursday and Thursday night, and it should not have an effect on curent weather. Similarly, vorticity analysis at the 500mb level suggests any intense circulation will remain to the north and west of Columbia. The largely uneventful period in the atmosphere continues down to the 700mb level which for Thursday and Thursday night as negative Omega values are rather low, and the atmosphere is mostly dry, although overnight Thursday moisture will roll into our atmosphere from 09Z to 12Z Friday and continue on into Friday. This moisture will lead to some cloud cover at the 700mb layer. The 850mb level, just as the 700mb level, is expected to remain dry; however, at the 850mb level there will not be any overnight moisture for Thursday night. The GFS does resolve a low-level jet forming to the south of Columbia in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Down at the surface, winds will shift from the west to the north bringing in colder air from the north and lowering temperatures even further.

For Friday and Friday night, at the 300mb level, we will transition from meridional into zonal flow overnight Friday. Still no discernible amounts of wind divergence. Similarly down at the 500mb level there is no circulation affecting Columbia. However, down at the 700mb level, the high relative humidity values overnight Thursday will continue on until about 09Z Saturday. The mositure here will  result in cloud cover at the 700mb level. At the 700mb level the CAA will transition to WAA from 15Z Friday to 09Z Saturday. At the 850mb level moisture will not be noticeable until overnight Saturday 03Z to 12Z. Thus, more cloud cover will build in throughout the night. Furthermore, the WAA will begin at 15Z Friday and last until 09Z Saturday, leading into rising temperatures. The winds at the surface coincide with the change in temperature advection as they transition from a northerly component to an easterly component around 21Z.

Rounding out the forecast for Saturday at the 300mb level, Columbia will be in zonal flow to end, and the GFS resolves wind divergence around Columbia at 18Z Saturday until the end of the period. At the 500mb level, there still is not much circulation occuring over Columbia. However, a small band of circulation will reach into southern Missouri towards Saturday night. At 700mb, there is some negative Omega resolving from 00Z Saturday reaching into 15Z Saturday. Additionally, the atmosphere is dry during Saturday. Furthermore, there will be a small pocket of CAA from 09Z until 15Z before transtioning back to WAA for the rest of the period. Going down to the 850mb level, moisture will reach Columbia as the low-level jet will begin to affect it at 21Z Saturday and continue on for the rest of the period. Therefore, there will still be cloud cover for Saturday. Additionally, the temperature advection is similar to the 700mb level. CAA will occur from 09Z Saturday to 15Z, then it will transition into WAA from 15Z to the end of the period. Concluding with the surface, winds will switch to the north at 06Z Saturday; however, by the end of the period, a surface low will move over Columbia causing a brief period of calm winds.

Future forecast shifts should be aware of potential precipitation for Sunday. GFS soundings show saturation occuring at the 850mb level at 21Z Saturday to 03Z Sunday; however, the dry layer appears to be too large to support precipitation. Furthermore at 06Z Sunday the surface temperature and dewpoint values are very close together. Potential drizzle or light precipitation could happen.

 

-Samson