Thursday, February 28, 2019




Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 24-28.


 
 Friday - Mostly cloudy  High: 42-46.



 Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26


 
Saturday - Cloudy. High: 34-38.


Sunday- Cloudy with snow through the afternoon. Total accumulation: 4-6 inches     High: 32-34.



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Discussion:
Hope you haven't packed away those snow shoes just yet! Tonight will be a continuation of today keeping temperatures well below freezing and skies remaining covered with clouds. Tomorrow we will see warmer temps giving us just a slight tease of incoming spring as well as minor breaks in cloud cover. Unfortunately this will be short lived as a cold front moves through Columbia Friday evening bringing cold air from the north and clouds remaining overhead into Saturday. Saturday keeps the clouds looming overhead and brings us snow beginnning later Saturday evening that will continue and worsen later in the night. Sunday keeps the snow rolling until noon with a total accumulation of 4-6 inches.


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Forecasters: Doll, Myers, and Bongard
Issued: 4:35 p.m., February 28, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
Overnight tonight we are expecting our flow to stay zonal across the region.  We do have a polar jet setting to our north across southern Minnesota. We have moist air near the surface which will keep cloud cover overnight, but we are relavitely dry at 700 mb.  Our winds are staying out of the west which paired with the expected cloud cover will keep our temperatures warmer than previously predicted.  The high pressure that will be moving into our area tomorrow will help kick off a dry start to the day.  We do moisten up slightly but we don't expect to see any precipitation for Friday due to the high pressure system providing divergence at the surface. Upper level flow remains zonal throughout the day with model agreement for the NAM and the GFS.  Low level southwesterly winds will help our temperatures stay warmer than today. The models start to disagree for Friday evening in regard to the timing of a frontal passage.  Looking at the 12Z model soundings, the NAM is keeping us a lot more moist with a low level southwesterly wind direction while the GFS swings winds out of the northwest sooner as a result of the cold front moving in a lot earlier with temperatures cooling off and the atmosphere drying out quicker. After the frontal passage Friday night, a zonal ridge will come through at 250 mb and bring with is a jet max that will sweep through Missouri. Low level northerly winds bring in much colder temperatures overnight. We do have some vorticity associated with the large system over central Canada staying to our north overnight. 

For Saturday, we wake up to a low level dry layer in the morning. Both models agree on the fact that we will stay zonal in our upper atmosphere as a ridge moves over the central Plains. During the mid morning we are seeing some convergence forming in the mid layer but we still are seeing divergence at the surface. Around noon the GFS has winds at 850 mb veer to the southwest which will start to bring in Gulf moisture. In general, the GFS has us mositening quickly during the afternoon. In contrast, the NAM is taking its time with this and has us slowly moistening over the course of the day. We have slight vorticity at 500mb but in general we aren't seeing a whole lot of vorticity with this system. One thing to note is that our moisture at 700mb is building in from the northwest while our moisture at 850 mb is coming from the Gulf which may aid in precipitation development overhead.  The GFS has a light dusting of snowfall around midnight whereas the NAM has no precipitation reaching the surface for Saturday evening.  

Sunday starts off with the GFS snowfall consistent throughout the morning into the early afternoon.  Our max vorticity aligns with our heaviest snowfall amounts around 6 am with a gain of around 3 inches in 6 hours. The GFS also has a low pressure system developing over Arkansas at daybreak. The NAM is showing us very different outcomes. The low pressure system forms over western Missouri but then treks east quickly. Snowfall will start early Sunday morning and continuing into the early afternoon. NAM is taking a more southerly track with the bulk of the snowfall over the southern part of the state and pushing this system through a lot faster than the GFS. Both models have snowfall stopping in the early afternoon and drying out quickly.  The GFS is having us receive close to 4-6 inches of snowfall while the NAM has us getting under 2 inches.  
  

Wednesday, February 27, 2019



Tonight - Cloudy . Low: 18-22.


 
 Thursday - Mostly cloudy  High: 34-38.



 
Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26.

 
Friday - Cloudy. High: 42-46.



Saturday- Cloudy with snow overnight into Sunday. High: 32-36.



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Discussion:
Cloudy skies will linger for the forecast period. A cold front has made its way through the area making our temperatures much cooler than what we experienced yesterday. We will see a slight warming of temperatures on Friday as a high pressure system will influence our area. Winds out of the south will help bring our temperatures up as well as increase the moisture in the atmosphere. This warm spell will be short lived however, as we brace for another blast of arctic air that will bring cold temperatures, strong winds and even snow. A cold front will move into the area overnight Saturday, this will be our next chance for precipitation. Further monitoring of this system will be needed for snowfall amounts as we are still too far out from the event to accurately predict totals.

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Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall and Hirsch
Issued: 2:49 p.m., February 27, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
Zonal flow presides over the forecast area overnight tonight as a subtle ridge begins to sets up over the southwestern CONUS by 12Z Thursday morning. Marginal vorticity will creep into the northern Plains including northwest Missouri in response to a shortwave ejecting out of the northern Rockies trekking into the Plains by morning. Closer to Columbia, low level winds will help to drive overnight lows into the upper teens. Moisture profile is tricky as both NAM and GFS both depict a warm inversion and a moistening up of these levels (700-850 mb). NAM is bullish on a chance for snow over central MIssouri though with minimal accumulation. GFS is void of precipitation for the area at this time.
Thursday will be a dry day for central Missouri as a dry layer near the surface will prevent any of the moisture in the low levels attempting to advect into the area from the south from developing sufficient precipitation at the surface. While low level clouds will keep the region overcast through 21Z Thursday the atmosphere will be hard pressed to generate enough precipitation to penetrate the aformentioned dry layer. A relatively weak zonal flow keeps things moving along in the upper levels. The shortwave over the northern Plains will carry moisture through southern Iowa but will not impact the forecast area. Despite northerly winds at the surface temperatures will struggle into the mid 30's for afternoon highs. Model charts show southerly winds over southern Missouri so if the quasi-stationary warm front to our south does lift far enough north we could see a bump into afternoon highs.
Light winds will swing from a northerly course closer to southeasterly by Friday morning. Zonal flow continues aloft though amplified ridging over the southwestern CONUS houses a building jet streak that will place the area in its left exit region by 12Z Friday morning. Yet another shortwave ejects off the front range and heads into the central/northern Plains by daybreak. A dry night for the area is in store as model soundings promote a moisture deficient profile promoting only scattered to broken clouds through the evening. With some cloud cover and light winds temperatures will drop slightly into the mid 20's for overnight lows.
The ridge out west begins to influence the forecast area with the nose of its axis based jet streak creeping into eastern Kansas through the day Friday. To our north over central Canada a large trough and associated low pressure center will drag a cold front through the northern Plains Friday and Friday night. Impacts of this cold front will be minimal Friday besides a wind shift occurring late Friday night before 06Z Saturday. Closer to the surface, low level southerlies will help to increase temperatures into the mid to upper 40's Friday afternoon while also advecting moisture up into southern Missouri that could touch off some precipitation there while central Missouri looks dry for Friday.
Saturday is a tale of model disagreement as the profiles for GFS and NAM take dramatic turns over the course of the day. GFS moistens up quite a bit in the mid to afternoon hours Saturday promoting a chance for snowfall. Meanwhile, NAM promotes a significant dry layer holding snow off until later Saturday night or even Sunday morning. Temperature profile will be below freezing in response to the cold front the Canadian trough dragged through the Midwest early Saturday morning. Northerly surface winds will keep temperatures cold for Saturday in the 20's.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019



Tonight - Becoming cloudy with light rain after midnight. Low: 30-34.


 
 Wednesday - Light rain then mostly cloudy after noon. Light  High: 37-41.



 Wednesday Night - Increasing clouds then light snow. Low: 17-21.

 Thursday - Wintery mix then clearing skies in afternoon. High: 32-36.

 

Friday - Partly sunny then rain. High: 38-42.



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Discussion:

It was a bright sunny day here in mid-Missouri and a very seasonal day with respect to temperatures. However, todays high will most likely be the warmest temperatures we will see over the next week. Our temperatures overnight will likely hold to be right around freezing. A cold front will push through overnight and behind it may come a little drizzle or sprinkles. The ground will likely be too warm for this precipitation to freeze, even if the air temperature is below freezing, but we can't rule out the possibility of a few slick spots. Over the next few days, the jet stream is going to shift to the south, this will funnel in colder air from the artic region and drop our temperatures much below the average for the end of Feburary/early March. While we have this dip in the jet, a few systems are going to pass through the region and give us possibilities for some wintery precipitation. The first system to move in will likely be Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be well below freezing, allowing for possible snow turning to wintery mix as we warm up to just above freezing into the late morning/early afternoon on Thursday. Precipitation could last into the late afternoon on Thursday. The next batch of moisture to move in is expected to enter the region on Friday afternoon/evening and since temperatures will be in the upper 30's or lower 40's, this precipitation will be in the form of rain.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., February 26, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
Columbia has enjoyed a well deserved last couple days with sun, blue skies, and light winds.  The jet stream during the forecast for this forecast package. This afternoon and onto this evening winds will shift from an easterly component to more of a southerly component.  The southerly winds willl allow WAA into the column, introducing moisture into the column this evening as well.  Clouds will begin to build up late afternoon and on through the evining.  GFS soundings suggest some low level moisture being introduced into the column around 06Z Wednesday.  The depth of the moisture is up to only about 740mb level, suggesting drizzle to a light rain.  As time goes on into 12Z Wednesday the moisture profile begin to dry out through the column.  We have forecasted lows to be 30-34 degrees and while confidence of freezing drizzle is low, certainly allow a few extra minutes in the morning and take it easy on the roads in your morning commute.  The cause of the precipitation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday is due to a stationary boundary that is off to our south currently and pushes up toward the area overnight in the form of a warm front Tuesday night.  The low pressure system associated with this stationary front is in its early stages of its life.  This system will be getting its act together and pushing off to the east promoting the light precip behind it and cooler temperatures because our area is going to be effected in the ways of a cold front.  Any precipitation Wednesday morning should subside by around 15-16Z.

 Clouds persist throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday. A short wave trough passes to our north in northern Iown during the day on Thursday.  Low forcing, lack of moisture between the surface and 850mb and a dry layer about 200mb deep in the DGZ persists throughout the column Thursday during the day, confidence of snow during the day is low, but if we do receive any snow the amounts will be a trace at best.  Clearing skies Thursday night into Friday.  We will enter the left exit region of the next long wave trough that is going to effect our area Friday afternoon, bringing our next chance of widespread rain, but will differ timeing to future shifts.   

Monday, February 25, 2019



Tonight - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 28-32.

Tuesday - Mix of sun and clouds. High: 52-56.

Tuesday Night - Becoming cloudy with light rain possible after midnight. Low: 38-42.

Wednesday - Cloudy with light rain possible before noon. High: 42-46.

Thursday - Wintry mix possible in the morning and afternoon. High: 38-42.



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Discussion:

After a mostly sunny and average February day, clouds will be on the increase tonight. However, sky conditions will not become completely cloudy until late Tuesday. Lows tonight will be near 30, and highs tomorrow will jump into the mid-50s amid southerly winds. Our next system then comes into the picture late Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, this is not anticipated to have a major impact on the region as our precipitation type would primarily be light rain if any precipitation occurs. Lows overnight Tuesday will be around 40, and there will not be much of a rebound during the day Wednesday. Another system is on tap for Thursday, and as of now appears to bring the threat of a wintry mix for the morning commute.

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Forecasters: Brown and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., February 25, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
The main focus of this rather active forecast period is narrowing down our seasonable temperatures. Went with a primarily GFS and GEFS guidance as the large spread in the SREF 2m temperature is cause for some concern. 


For tonight, soundings indicate a deep saturated layer from 250hPa to 400hPa. High clouds present will allow for less radiational cooling than was seen Sunday night into Monday morning. The result will be significantly warmer morning lows. Lows are expected to bottom out right around 30, considerably warmer than the 16 low that Sanborn Field recorded this morning just after sunrise. Partial cloudiness sticks around into Tuesday day with soundings pointing to the exit of high clouds with a drying out of the upper troposphere. Brief clearing looks to occur from 18Z to 21Z Tuesday. High clouds are quickly replaced, though, with a smaller saturated layer just above 850hPa. Southwesterly flow at 850hPa, and the persistent veering profile of the winds will lead to enough WAA to bump our temperatures up into the low 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures have the potential to creep higher depending on the extent of the clouds during prime diurnal heating hours

Skies become completely cloudy Tuesday night as the mid level clouds remain, and high clouds return between 250 and 350hPa. Thick cloud decks will help trap enough outgoing LW radiation to keep temperatures well above freezing into Tuesday night.

Early Wednesday morning brings our first chance, though slight, for precipitation this forecast period. Soundings favor a saturated layer below 880hPa all the way down to the sfc, with a sliver of negative omega values. Therefore, can't rule out the possibility for some early morning drizzles Wednesday morning. With the temperatures well above freezing, expect only liquid precipitation with no impacts on the morning commute. FROPA on Wednesday morning will set the stage for our next round of precipitation.  There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Wednesday prior to the next system passing to the south of the area. A shallow cold airmass should be in place Thursday morning due to Wednesday's FROPA. Warm air advection around 850hPa will lead to a persistent warm nose that will be the primary driver of our precip type. Today's guidance suite tends to favor a more shallow warm layer which will lead to a primarily sleet event throughout the morning and afternoon on Thursday. However, with very subtle changes in the strength of this warm nose leading to drastic swings in the precip type, will have to defer to later shifts to pin down the exact nature of the warm air and resultant precipitation.

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 42-46.




Monday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 28-32.




Tuesday - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High: 52-56.




Tuesday Night - Becoming cloudy with light rain possible after midnight. Low: 38-42.




Wednesday - Cloudy with light rain possible before noon. High: 42-46.



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Discussion:

Sunshine will be in order throughout the day today with high temperatures in the mid-40s. We will see an increase in clouds tonight, although sky conditions will not become completely cloudy until late Tuesday. Lows tonight will be near 30, and highs tomorrow will jump into the mid-50s. Our next system then comes into the picture late Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, this is not anticipated to have a major impact on the region as our precipitation type would be light rain if any precipitation occurs. Lows overnight Tuesday will be around 40, and there will not be much of a rebound during the day Wednesday.

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Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, and Hirsch
Issued: 10:00 a.m., February 25, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
The main focus of this rather forecast period is narrowing down our seasonable temperatures. Went with a primarily GFS and GEFS guidance as the large spread in the SREF 2m temperature is cause for some concern. 

Monday, sunshine returns as the sfc cyclone that dominated mid-Missouri weather this past weekend has moved off to the to the Northeast and into Newfoundland. Winds have since since died down and high pressure has begun to creep down from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cold dry air will infiltrate the Midwest bringing our temperatures back down to normal for late February. Monday afternoon, according to GFS soundings, a backing profile of the wind will gradually shift to a veering profile hinting at some minor WAA. This will allow for temperatures to get just above average into the mid 40s. 

Monday night soundings indicate a deep saturated layer from 250hPa to 400hPa. High clouds present will allow for less radiational cooling than was seen Sunday night into Monday morning. The result will be significantly warmer morning lows. Lows are expected to bottom out right around 30, considerably warmer than the 16 low that Sanborn Field recorded this morning just after sunrise. Partial cloudiness sticks around into Tuesday day with soundings pointing to the exit of high clouds with a drying out of the upper troposphere. Brief clearing looks to occur from 18Z to 21Z Tuesday. High clouds are quickly replaced, though, with a smaller saturated layer just above 850hPa. Southwesterly flow at 850hPa, and the persistent veering profile of the winds will lead to enough WAA to bump our temperatures up into the low 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures have the potential to creep higher depending on the extent of the clouds during prime diurnal heating hours. Will defer to the afternoon shift with updated model guidance to gauge the need for adjustment. 

Skies become completely cloudy Tuesday night as the mid level clouds remain, and high clouds return between 250 and 350hPa. Thick cloud decks will help trap enough outgoing LW radiation to keep temperatures well above freezing into Tuesday night.

Early Wednesday morning brings our only chance, though slight, for precipitation this forecast period. Soundings favor a saturated layer below 880hPa all the way down to the sfc, with a sliver of negative omega values. Therefore, can't rule out the possibility for some early morning drizzles Wednesday morning. With the temperatures well above freezing, expect only liquid precipitation with no impacts on the morning commute. Will defer to subsequent shifts to determine if the potential for drizzle Wednesday morning sticks around.

Friday, February 22, 2019





 
Friday Night - Remains cloudy with likely scattered showers. Low 38-42



Saturday - Thunderstorms likely early in the morning. Then lingering isolated storms and showers moving out in the evening. This will leave clouds behind. High: 54-58



 Saturday Night - Cloudy and breezy. Low 28-32



Sunday - Clouds clearing out in the morning leaving sunny skies. High: 38-42


Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 38-42

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Discussion:

Tonight we expect isolated showers with some thunder likely early Saturday morning. These isolated storms and showers should move out Saturday evening, when a cold front moves through. This dries us out and brings in colder temperatures. Saturday night clouds persist with windy conditions. Skies will clear Sunday morning leading us to mostly sunny skies into the beginning of next week.

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Forecasters: Johnston, Rojas, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:58 p.m., February 22, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
Aloft, at 300 mb the trough located southwest of the CONUS is moving northeastward, the jet streak associated with the trough axis will traverse our area in the following hours, this will put Columbia in the middle of two divergence zones which will explain the lower values of precipitation around 0.34 to 0.39'' compared to southeast of MO where near 2" is expected for TN, this is what we will experience late tonight through Saturday. The southwesterly flow will be responsible for the moisture advection that associated with some upward motion will set up the storms and showers for after midnight according to the cross section of GFS and NAM.


Soundings for Saturday morning shows a CAPE of 606 J/kg and a potential unstable conditions in the mid level troposphere, also a maximum 3km shear of 18.9m/s. Severe conditions is not something to be concerned about, because of being in the winter season and the SPC keeps the severe risk in southeast MO. But will expect thunderstorm likely.

South westerly wind and WAA will linger on Saturday. The winds will strengthen as the low pressure system passes and even after that. Despite a model disagreement in the temperature on Saturday, we think that temperatures would slightly increase as the SW flow will bring warm air and the condensation process will release enough latent heat to the atmosphere. As the rain finishes toward late evening, a cold front will pass through dragging dry conditions behind it. The pass of the front will define the clear skies on Sunday and also the decrease in temperatures especially Sunday night as is usual at the first night after the FROPA. The temperature on Monday produces another disagreement in the model as a warm front appears that day, but considering the colder conditions of the night before, we could expect a slightly warming. These conditions need to be monitored toward the next week. We expect zonal flow as we start the next week.
 

Thursday, February 21, 2019







 
Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 28-32

 

Friday - Cloudy. High: 40-44



 Friday Night - Remains cloudy with likely scattered showers. Low 38-42



  Saturday - Cloudy with rain coming later in the evening. High: 52-56


Sunday - Clouds clearing out throughout the day. High: 42-46

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Discussion:
We have an active weekend ahead of us.  For tonight, we have cloud cover hanging out into Friday but we won't see any precipitation tonight as the main chunk of moisture is staying south of us and our winds are out of the southwest.  Friday will stay cloudy with temperatures in the mid 40s as we have moisture continuing to build in anticipation for even showers. Low pressure moves into our area on Saturday.  The main chance for rain would be Saturday as we expect to see .25" - .5" of total precipitation for this system.  As a cold front passes through Columbia early Sunday morning, we expect our temps to drop slightly as we see conditions really dry out. Skies will clear through the day Sunday leading us into the beginning of next week.

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Forecasters: Myers, Doll and Bongard
Issued: 4:00 p.m., February 21, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The weather continues keeping us active heading into the weekend with precipitation on the way but some warmer temperatures before then. For tonight, we compared the NAM and GFS models and saw that NAM had quite a bit more moisture advection in southern MO as well as scattered showers across central Missouri. We're leaning towards the GFS model as we don't see a chance for precipiation tonight with winds staying southwesterly and most of the moisture staying near the Springfield, MO area. Currently we sit in the path of an incoming meridional trough that will bring in potential wet weather Friday and Saturday. The trough doesn't move much overnight however with no decent steering force to carry it into Missouri we don't believe it will impact the area before tomorrow night. The GFS sounding keeps the mid atmospheric levels moist throughout the night keeping clouds overhead through the night.

Friday, we see the incoming trough that turns into a more zonal flow as the day continues on bringing vorticity along with it that appears stronger on the NAM model compared to the GFS. Both models have plenty of moisture through the day keeping us cloudy. With winds continuing to come from the southwest, we will see warmer temps Friday as well as ongoing cloud cover into Friday night. The NAM model shows a small chance for rain in the late afternoon with stronger moisture advection coming from the trough while GFS gives us a good chance for precipitation later on into the night. We are leaning more with the GFS model delaying the likely chance of precipitation till later Friday night. The trough will be in a zonal flow by the time it reaches us keeping the precipitation window short tomorrow night while most of the moisture will be remaining to the south of us in the upper jet.

Saturday shows much more promise for precipitation with a low pressure system coming into central Missouri bringing rain throughout the day and Saturday night. GFS shows a chance for a break in the precipitation with stronger winds at the 850 mb bringing in more dry air from our southwest while NAM has the low pressure system coming through earlier as well as further south keeping us moist throughout the period. Additionally, with the system being slightly further to the south, NAM has Columbia in the rain shield through the late evening but as that cold front passes, it will finish the precipitation period by changing into snow Sunday morning. GFS has us consistently keeping to rain throughout the period bringing in totals of .25"-.5" throughout the entirety of the weekend.

With the passing of the low pressure system and rain, Sunday looks a bit more relaxed with winds remaining westerly at the 250mb throughout the day and a zonal flow across the CONUS. Winds near the surface at 925mb shift to northwesterly Sunday morning and stay consistently there throughout the day bringing colder temps than experienced Saturday. GFS shows the atmosphere relatively dry later on in the morning throughout the day bringing in some new fresh sunlight throughout the day, making the day not to bad for a recent frontal passage.