Thursday, February 7, 2019

Tonight -Decreasing clouds and frigid cold.  Low: 8-12

Friday- Sunny but cold. High: 21-25

Friday night - Clouds clearing. Low: 18-12

Saturday - Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by sunset. High: 32-36

Sunday- Cloudy with chance for snow showers and wintry mix. High: 30-34

Thanks to for the icons!

An active night including freezing rain, freezing fog, and thunderstorms across mid Missouri has given way to an icy, cloudy Thursday with gusty winds and plummeting temperatures. These weather features are all thanks to a cold front passing through the area Thursday. While cloud cover will clear out this evening temperatures will continue to drop into the single digits for overnight lows. Friday morning will greet us with sunny skies and very cold temperatures. The overnight temps will aid in potentially making road surfaces slick so caution is advised for the morning commute into work/school. Temperatures will rebound slightly into the low 20's during the afternoon before returning back to the single digits for yet another cold night. High pressure over the central Plains will lend to a sunny, slightly warmer Saturday. The quiet weather will be short lived however as cloud cover will increase Saturday evening ahead of a developing weather system to the regions west. The cloud cover and southerly winds will help to keep low temperatures Saturday night in the upper 20's. Sunday holds the possibility for another round of winter weather as this system treks over the Midwest. Right now, accumulations of snow are low at around half an inch with a potential for some icing. Afternoon highs will climb again into the low 30's Sunday afternoon.
Forecasters: Bongard & Hirsch
Issued: 2:46 p.m., February 7, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Surface winds over the area have veered around to the west northwest as a cold front blasts through the region today. Aloft, a southwesterly oriented 170+ knot jet streak will drape itself over southeastern Missouri by 06Z Friday. Precipitation chances will come to an end this afternoon as the cold fropa clears out moisture knocking down PWAT values and clearing skies overhead. Strong cold air advection and lack of cloud cover insulation will drop temperatures into the single digits.

A surface high pressure system will develop over the Panhandles by 06Z tonight and will be responsible for the sunny skies Friday. Cold air advection will continue as the region finds itself in a post frontal regime for the majority of the day. The high pressure system will aid northerly winds as mid Missouri finds itself in the high pressure systems eastern flank for the rest of Friday and Friday evening. This will help to keep temperatures modestly cold in the low 20's Friday afternoon before plunging low temperatures Friday night back into the single digits.

Upper level charts promote a zonal flow over the region for the vast majority of the weekend. The high pressure center will traverse Missouri early Saturday morning and flip low level winds around to the south as we wake up Saturday morning. This will serve to warm temperatures Saturday into the 30's and steer some Gulf moisture northward into the Midwest by days end. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday afternoon as this moisture enters the region from the southwest. The Gulf moisture will be the catalyst for potential winter weather Sunday as a shortwave ejects off the Front Range and a low pressure system develops to the west over Kansas Saturday night. Models are in general agreement that precipitation in the form of freezing rain and scattered showers will form over the region Sunday morning around 15Z as the shortwave propagating across Missouri interacts with some of this moisture. SREF and GEFS plumes agree with NAM & GFS accumulation predictions of less than 0.5 inches of snowfall over Columbia with better chances for freezing rain accumulations to the east and south of the area through Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs Sunday will rise again into the 30's. 

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