Friday, November 22, 2019






Friday Night - Cloudy skies with isolated showers . Low 30-34 


Saturday- Partly Cloudy. High: 44-48 
Saturday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 28-32
Sunday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 52-56


Monday -  Partly Cloudy.  High: 52-56

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Discussion: 
A low pressure system passes through Missouri Saturday morning bringing with it colder temperatures.  By Sunday, we are no longer under the influence of this system and our temperatures for this weekend are at its highest.  We expect similar temperatures to persist into Monday as well.   
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Forecasters: Balkissoon, Travis, Heaven, Munley
Issued:  5pm, November 22, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From 250hPa winds we observe there is a 250mb low pressure system coming in from the West of Missouri.  We sit on the trough of this system on Saturday at 12Z.  Looking at lower levels of the atmosphere, we see that from the 500hPa vorticity, there is associated areas of max circulation from Saturday 3Z to Sunday 3Z. Looking at the RH map at 700hPa, even though we see high values of RH associated with this system throughout Missouri, in Columbia there is significant vertical motion seen around Saturday 0Z; this is when we expect precipitation.

This is confirmed using the GFS sounding which showed a saturated atmosphere from 3am to 9am on Saturday.  We expect under a quarter of an inch of rainfall.  From the NAM run, the skew-t analysis showed similar characteristics indicative of precipitation at the aforementioned time.  On the early hours on Sunday however, the soundings generated by the NAM indicate that we are expecting fog.

Friday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 40-44
 
Friday Night - Mostly Cloudy with possible overnight mixed precipitation. Low 30-34 

 
Saturday- Mostly Cloudy. High: 44-48 
 
Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 28-32
 
Sunday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 52-56

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Discussion:  

Today will be breezy and chilly in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday. Another weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. We could see trace amounts of mixed precipitation, however it should have little impact on Saturday plans. Clouds persist throughout the weekend, with Sunday being the warmer day.
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Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10am, November 22, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Today, conditions behind the frontal passage remain cool and cloudy. Tonight, another system will impact the area. A positively tilted, vertically stacked trough will move through around 00Z Saturday. This positive tilt indicates that this is a weaker system which is evident as a drastic temperature change is not present.  Precipitation with this system is minimal at best due to lack of moisture and a substantial dry layer close to the surface.

There is a lack of model consensus when it comes to the amount of available moisture for this system. Skew-T analysis shows NAM is supporting the presence of more moisture reaching the surface, whereas the GFS is outputting less available moisture and significant dry layers at the lower levels. It is the presence of this dry layer and evaporation that leads us to believe that precipitation at the surface will be minimal.

The rest of the weekend will feature cooler and cloudy conditions, but will remain fairly calm ahead of the next system that is set to impact Missouri at the beginning of next week.

Thursday, November 21, 2019




Thursday Night - Cloudy skies. Low: 32-36 

Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 40-44 




Friday Night - Cloudy with possible rain showers. Low 30-34 


Saturday - Cloudy, rain, and possible snow showers. High: 44-48 


Sunday - Morning clouds, afternoon clearing. High: 52-56

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Discussion:  
Tonight will be cold and cloudy, as there are still some impacts from the front that has passed to the east of the Columbia area. Friday will be nice as conditions start to improve. However, that will not last as another front from the Rockies will move through mid-Missouri and bring potential snow late Friday night into Saturday morning, but do not expect this to stick due to warm ground temperatures. This front will move out of Central Missouri and fair conditions will return by Sunday. 

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Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued:  1500: November 21, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The current model of choice is a combination of the SREF, HREF, SREF Plums and NAM Skew-ts.

Conditions through Friday afternoon are primarily being influenced by the FROPA that has occurred during the prior forecast period. While there is some cloud cover remaining post cold front these are currently tracking to the East of the Columbia region. As such there will be weak high-pressure dominating the region and conditions will temporarily become fair.

For Friday night into Saturday morning, conditions will deteriorate. Currently, the SREF and HREF are progging that a Colorado Low will form along the Rocky Mountains. Right now the models are progging the first impacts of this moving into the region on late Friday night. Currently, NAM Skew-t is showing the conditions Friday night to be relatively dry in the lower levels, and RH values in the 90% at 700mb. As precipitation falls from this system, the lower levels will become more saturated and cooler. At 0300Z on Saturday the temperature becomes less than 0 degrees and the column is saturated up to the 500mb level. While these conditions still need to be monitored, there is a possibility of snow.

SREF and HREF are still progging the Colorado Low to move out of the central Missouri region on late Saturday afternoon. Once the system moves to the East Saturday evening then conditions will revert back to Thursday/Friday as fair weather.

 
Thursday - Cloudy skies. High: 58-62
 
Thursday Night - Cloudy Skies. Low: 32-36
 
Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 40-44
 
Friday Night - Cloudy, rain showers possible. Low: 30-34
 
Saturday - Morning clouds, afternoon clearing. High: 42-46

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Discussion:  
Today, we have already topped out for our high temperature, since we have a cold front moving into our area. Rain will stick around into the morning to afternoon hours.  A cold front cam through this morning and temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Tonight, clouds will stick around, but winds will be switching to the north. Friday, temperatures will not be as warm as we have seen from the last few days. Scattered clouds in the morning to afternoon. Clouds will then move in overnight giving us a possibility for rain. Saturday, temperatures will remain chilly with partly sunny skies. 

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Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Pauley
Issued:  10:00am: November 21, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions at Sanborn have us at 52 degrees under overcast skies with WSW winds at 13mph, gusting to 20mph at times. 

WPC recommends a 00z ECMWF and UKMET, and an 18z GEFS mean for temperatures. The GFS and GEFS were used thing morning because it reaches out to the end of our forecast period. 

This morning, we had a cold front pass through the area at 13Z which is bringing us a change in wind direction from the SW to NW and with the frontal passage temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Going into this afternoon and evening, we will begin to see a trough that is currently set up over the desert SW make its way into the area. This trough will give us a backing wind profile which will switch out winds to out of the NW overnight giving us CAA which will drop out temperatures overnight. This cold front looks to be relatively dry as the 06Z soundings show the column dry from 850mb down to the surface. Friday, skies look to clear out as well as we will have high temperatures below seasonal average. as the front has passed through the area drying us out for the afternoon. However, Friday night looks interesting as we will have a shortwave pass through the area which will give us the possibility of rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Current indications are that any rain we receive will be light in nature as the 06Z sounding shows the column becoming saturated from 250mb down to 850mb, yet there is a dry layer just above the surface. It appears that there may be enough moisture from the upper levels to punch through that dry layer. Saturday looks to be once again cooler than seasonal values as also skies will begin to clear out into Saturday afternoon. Lastly, nothing is set in stone just yet, however a possibility of a changeover from rain to snow can't be ruled out for Saturday morning. Refer to the later forecast shifts for more information.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019


   

 Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 52-56 


Thursday - Mostly cloudy. Rain ending mid-morning. High: 58-62 



Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  32-36



Friday -  Cloudy. High: 40-44



Saturday - Cloudy, skies clearing throughout the day. High: 42-46

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Discussion:  
Tonight, rain will develop after midnight, ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be mild overnight with a low in the low to mid fifties. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the region, causing temperatures to continually drop throughout the day into Thursday night. Winds will continue to come from the north on Friday keeping temperatures down along with cloud cover. Cloudy skies Saturday morning, will eventually clear in the afternoon.

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Forecasters: Munley. Heaven, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00p.m. November 20, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics discussion indicates a general model blend for the current forecast period and system, and as such it will be used for this forecast period.  The models used are the GFS and the SREF.

Tonight, WAA continues over the area due to a low located over the Central Plains that will move into Iowa overnight. This, along with cloudy skies, will allow temperatures to stay in the fifties overnight. Rain is expected to begin to develop ahead of a cold front after midnight. Rainfall total is expected to be between a quarter and a half inch.

On Thursday, the low will move from Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes, and thus will cause WAA to transition to CAA. Cold frontal passage is expected to begin mid-morning. Rain is expected to end at approximately the same time. This will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day and into the overnight hours. In the afternoon, the low over the Great Lakes will move too far away to exert influence, and a high located over the Northern Plains will begin to act upon the area. After this point, CAA is expected to weaken and should end overnight Thursday.

Friday, cloudy skies will prevent temperatures from warming up beyond the mid forties. There is a possibility for precipitation Friday morning; however, we do not have confidence at this time that this will occur. We will be tracking any changes and will revise the forecast if necessary.

Finally, Saturday will bring rain in the early morning and cloudy skies. Skies are expected to clear throughout the day, which will allow temperatures to rise a little more than it will on Friday.
 
 
 Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High 62-66
 
 
 
 
 Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 52-56 
 
 
 
 
 Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Early morning rain. High: 58-62 
 
 
 
 
Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  30-34
 
 
 
 
Friday -  Cloudy. High: 40-44

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Discussion:  
Wednesday will see southerly winds throughout the day ahead of an approaching system of low pressure.  This will keep temperatures up during the day, to a rather nice mid 60s.  Rain is expected to begin ahead of a cold front to the west late Wednesday night.  Precipitation is expected to taper off Thursday morning, as the cold front passes overhead.  This cold front will drop temperatures starting around noon, and continually dropping them through Thursday night.  Winds will remain out of the north on Friday, once again keeping temperatures down, along with the expected cloud cover.
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Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  10:00a.m. November 20, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics discussion indicates a general blend for the current forecast period and system, and as such it will be used for this forecast period.  The models used are the GFS and the SREF.

Wednesday temperatures are expected to get quite warm, as a stationary front just off to the northeast has finally started to advance to the northeast as a warm front.  WAA behind the front is quite strong, with decent surface winds out of the south, and an 850mb jet pushing 60 knots.  This WAA helps to set up the rainfall event that is expected overnight into Thursday.  Soundings in the last few model runs have been picking up on around 50 MUCAPE and no CIN, enough to get some rumbles of thunder out of this rainfall.  Vertical velocities at 700mb seem to have increased also, indicating some convective precipitation is very possible.  This precipitation is expected to be quite widespread through Thursday morning, with SREF and GFS both indicating about half an inch of precipitiation.

Thursday morning will see our rain start to end, and the looming cold front finally pass around noon.  The high temperature on Thursday is expected to happen in the morning, as the afternoon will have CAA keeping temperatures down quite a bit.  This CAA behind the cold front is expected to be quite strong, pushing temperatures down into the 30s Thursday night.  Precipitation has been taken out of the forecast for Thursday, as SREF and GFS both seem to have removed rain for the most part; soundings also indicate that a large dry layer has appeared at the surface that cannot be eroded, along with less overall saturation than the previous forecast soundings indicated. 

Friday will see the coolest temperatures of the week, as it will be the first full day in CAA behind the cold front from Thursday.  Temperatures are not expected to get out of the mid 40s, as Columbia will be cloudy and have CAA.  Precipitation seems rather unlikely at the time this forecast was made for Friday, however future shifts will need to keep an eye on possible precipitation.  There are hints at precipitation, however nothing too convincing yet. 

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

 
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42 
 
 
 
Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High 60-64
 
 
 
Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54 
 
 
 
Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Early morning rain. High: 58-62
 
 
 
Friday -  Cloudy. Rain late. High: 38-42

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Discussion: 

Tuesday night will be partly cloudy as the back end of the high pressure system moves through, bringing warmer temperatures into Wednesday. A low pressure system moves in Wednesday leading to rain late into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Clouds will continue from Thursday into Friday with a cold front moving in as temperatures drop significantly due to a high pressure system moving in.
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Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool, Savoy, Lujan
Issued:  5:00pM. November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostic discussion prefers a general model blend, excluding the 12z NAM. We will be relying on the 12z GFS, with consideration also given to the 18z HRRR and the 15z SREF.

The surface analysis at 18z 11/19 shows a surface high centered over the Midwest. Columbia is right in the middle of this high, which is contributing to light winds out of the WNW. A warm front stretched roughly from Duluth, MN to Urbana, IL. A developing low was located in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle region, with a stationary front running just east of Amarillo, TX to Pueblo, CO.

For tonight, one last calm night is expected as the sfc high shifts east. Winds will switch to the southwest towards dawn, helping to advect warm air into the region. As a result, temperatures will stay a bit warmer tonight than they have in recent nights. Tomorrow into tomorrow night, the aforementioned low in TX/OK panhandle region will develop and kick out into Kansas. A shortwave disturbance will precede this low, providing vertical lift starting late evening and early overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Ample moisture advection in combination with favorable lift will provide an excellent chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with qpf (as indicated by the GEFS) between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Instability does not look great at this time, but would not even rule out a rumble or two of thunder for the predawn hours Thursday morning.

On Thursday, the surface low will pass by about 400 miles to our north. Rain will move out as moisture is depleted and the dry slot moves into central MO. Cloudy skies remain on Thursday, with a cold front moving in by mid to late afternoon. The air behind the front is of a pacific origin (therefore not overly cold or dry) so temperature drop shouldn't be too extreme. Still, the front will mark a clear contrast between the much warmer temperatures of Tuesday and Wednesday. For Friday, temperatures will struggle to make it into the 40s in central MO. Model soundings support cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Another system looks to eject into the central plains by Friday afternoon and evening, which may provide our next chance of precipitation. Therefore, we have introduced a mention of rain into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on the evolution of that system, as a few models indicate temperature profiles that may support some wintry precip nearby Friday night into Saturday morning.















Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 


Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Sunny. High 62-66

Wednesday Night - Becoming cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54

Thursday - Cloudy with early morning rain. High: 58-62

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Discussion: 

The cloud cover that we experienced early this morning has since moved on and we will be experiencing mostly sunny skies throughout the rest of the day. Along with the sunny skies, we will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 50's. These warmer temperatures are due to winds starting to shift out of the SW as a ridge of high pressure makes it's way into the area. Overnight, we expect to have some mid level clouds with the low reaching the lower 40's. The clouds will clear out once in the morning and we will have another sunny day Wednesday with a high in the lower 60's. Overnight Wednesday, clouds and rain will move ahead of a cold front with a low in the low 50's. The rain will clear out late Thursday morning and we will begin to see some afternoon sun as we expect temperatures to rise back to the upper 50's.

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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00AM.  November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions at Sanborn Field are mostly sunny skies and 49 degrees with winds out of the west at 7-9mph gusting to 13-15mph.

WPC model preference is a general model blend, but leaning more toward the NAM.

The main topic for this forecast period is how much it will warm up and when the rain will move into the area.

The cloud cover that we had early this morning has moved out of the area. This is due to a current NW flow at all levels. This will lead to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. Along with the clearing skies, we will have a shift in winds out of the SW which will give us a veering wind profile giving us WAA warming our temperatures to near 60 degrees this afternoon. The SW winds will continue into tomorrow and actually pick up to 15-20 kts. This will warm out temperatures up to the middle 60's which is nearly 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Clouds will begin to make their way back into the area Wednesday night as RH values at 700mb will begin to increase. Along with that, we will have PWAT values increase also overnight up to 1 inch and increasing upward vertical motion Wednesday night as well. All those ingredients show a high possibility of rain that night. The rainfall looks to continue into Thursday morning. Along with the rain, we will have a cold front start to pass through the area. This will lead to a backing wind profile giving us CAA which will drop our temperatures throughout the day Thursday.