Wednesday, November 20, 2019


   

 Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 52-56 


Thursday - Mostly cloudy. Rain ending mid-morning. High: 58-62 



Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  32-36



Friday -  Cloudy. High: 40-44



Saturday - Cloudy, skies clearing throughout the day. High: 42-46

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Discussion:  
Tonight, rain will develop after midnight, ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be mild overnight with a low in the low to mid fifties. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the region, causing temperatures to continually drop throughout the day into Thursday night. Winds will continue to come from the north on Friday keeping temperatures down along with cloud cover. Cloudy skies Saturday morning, will eventually clear in the afternoon.

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Forecasters: Munley. Heaven, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00p.m. November 20, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics discussion indicates a general model blend for the current forecast period and system, and as such it will be used for this forecast period.  The models used are the GFS and the SREF.

Tonight, WAA continues over the area due to a low located over the Central Plains that will move into Iowa overnight. This, along with cloudy skies, will allow temperatures to stay in the fifties overnight. Rain is expected to begin to develop ahead of a cold front after midnight. Rainfall total is expected to be between a quarter and a half inch.

On Thursday, the low will move from Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes, and thus will cause WAA to transition to CAA. Cold frontal passage is expected to begin mid-morning. Rain is expected to end at approximately the same time. This will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day and into the overnight hours. In the afternoon, the low over the Great Lakes will move too far away to exert influence, and a high located over the Northern Plains will begin to act upon the area. After this point, CAA is expected to weaken and should end overnight Thursday.

Friday, cloudy skies will prevent temperatures from warming up beyond the mid forties. There is a possibility for precipitation Friday morning; however, we do not have confidence at this time that this will occur. We will be tracking any changes and will revise the forecast if necessary.

Finally, Saturday will bring rain in the early morning and cloudy skies. Skies are expected to clear throughout the day, which will allow temperatures to rise a little more than it will on Friday.
 
 
 Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High 62-66
 
 
 
 
 Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 52-56 
 
 
 
 
 Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Early morning rain. High: 58-62 
 
 
 
 
Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  30-34
 
 
 
 
Friday -  Cloudy. High: 40-44

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Discussion:  
Wednesday will see southerly winds throughout the day ahead of an approaching system of low pressure.  This will keep temperatures up during the day, to a rather nice mid 60s.  Rain is expected to begin ahead of a cold front to the west late Wednesday night.  Precipitation is expected to taper off Thursday morning, as the cold front passes overhead.  This cold front will drop temperatures starting around noon, and continually dropping them through Thursday night.  Winds will remain out of the north on Friday, once again keeping temperatures down, along with the expected cloud cover.
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Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  10:00a.m. November 20, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics discussion indicates a general blend for the current forecast period and system, and as such it will be used for this forecast period.  The models used are the GFS and the SREF.

Wednesday temperatures are expected to get quite warm, as a stationary front just off to the northeast has finally started to advance to the northeast as a warm front.  WAA behind the front is quite strong, with decent surface winds out of the south, and an 850mb jet pushing 60 knots.  This WAA helps to set up the rainfall event that is expected overnight into Thursday.  Soundings in the last few model runs have been picking up on around 50 MUCAPE and no CIN, enough to get some rumbles of thunder out of this rainfall.  Vertical velocities at 700mb seem to have increased also, indicating some convective precipitation is very possible.  This precipitation is expected to be quite widespread through Thursday morning, with SREF and GFS both indicating about half an inch of precipitiation.

Thursday morning will see our rain start to end, and the looming cold front finally pass around noon.  The high temperature on Thursday is expected to happen in the morning, as the afternoon will have CAA keeping temperatures down quite a bit.  This CAA behind the cold front is expected to be quite strong, pushing temperatures down into the 30s Thursday night.  Precipitation has been taken out of the forecast for Thursday, as SREF and GFS both seem to have removed rain for the most part; soundings also indicate that a large dry layer has appeared at the surface that cannot be eroded, along with less overall saturation than the previous forecast soundings indicated. 

Friday will see the coolest temperatures of the week, as it will be the first full day in CAA behind the cold front from Thursday.  Temperatures are not expected to get out of the mid 40s, as Columbia will be cloudy and have CAA.  Precipitation seems rather unlikely at the time this forecast was made for Friday, however future shifts will need to keep an eye on possible precipitation.  There are hints at precipitation, however nothing too convincing yet. 

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

 
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42 
 
 
 
Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High 60-64
 
 
 
Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54 
 
 
 
Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Early morning rain. High: 58-62
 
 
 
Friday -  Cloudy. Rain late. High: 38-42

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Discussion: 

Tuesday night will be partly cloudy as the back end of the high pressure system moves through, bringing warmer temperatures into Wednesday. A low pressure system moves in Wednesday leading to rain late into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Clouds will continue from Thursday into Friday with a cold front moving in as temperatures drop significantly due to a high pressure system moving in.
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Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool, Savoy, Lujan
Issued:  5:00pM. November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostic discussion prefers a general model blend, excluding the 12z NAM. We will be relying on the 12z GFS, with consideration also given to the 18z HRRR and the 15z SREF.

The surface analysis at 18z 11/19 shows a surface high centered over the Midwest. Columbia is right in the middle of this high, which is contributing to light winds out of the WNW. A warm front stretched roughly from Duluth, MN to Urbana, IL. A developing low was located in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle region, with a stationary front running just east of Amarillo, TX to Pueblo, CO.

For tonight, one last calm night is expected as the sfc high shifts east. Winds will switch to the southwest towards dawn, helping to advect warm air into the region. As a result, temperatures will stay a bit warmer tonight than they have in recent nights. Tomorrow into tomorrow night, the aforementioned low in TX/OK panhandle region will develop and kick out into Kansas. A shortwave disturbance will precede this low, providing vertical lift starting late evening and early overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Ample moisture advection in combination with favorable lift will provide an excellent chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with qpf (as indicated by the GEFS) between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Instability does not look great at this time, but would not even rule out a rumble or two of thunder for the predawn hours Thursday morning.

On Thursday, the surface low will pass by about 400 miles to our north. Rain will move out as moisture is depleted and the dry slot moves into central MO. Cloudy skies remain on Thursday, with a cold front moving in by mid to late afternoon. The air behind the front is of a pacific origin (therefore not overly cold or dry) so temperature drop shouldn't be too extreme. Still, the front will mark a clear contrast between the much warmer temperatures of Tuesday and Wednesday. For Friday, temperatures will struggle to make it into the 40s in central MO. Model soundings support cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Another system looks to eject into the central plains by Friday afternoon and evening, which may provide our next chance of precipitation. Therefore, we have introduced a mention of rain into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on the evolution of that system, as a few models indicate temperature profiles that may support some wintry precip nearby Friday night into Saturday morning.















Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 


Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Sunny. High 62-66

Wednesday Night - Becoming cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54

Thursday - Cloudy with early morning rain. High: 58-62

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Discussion: 

The cloud cover that we experienced early this morning has since moved on and we will be experiencing mostly sunny skies throughout the rest of the day. Along with the sunny skies, we will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 50's. These warmer temperatures are due to winds starting to shift out of the SW as a ridge of high pressure makes it's way into the area. Overnight, we expect to have some mid level clouds with the low reaching the lower 40's. The clouds will clear out once in the morning and we will have another sunny day Wednesday with a high in the lower 60's. Overnight Wednesday, clouds and rain will move ahead of a cold front with a low in the low 50's. The rain will clear out late Thursday morning and we will begin to see some afternoon sun as we expect temperatures to rise back to the upper 50's.

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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00AM.  November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions at Sanborn Field are mostly sunny skies and 49 degrees with winds out of the west at 7-9mph gusting to 13-15mph.

WPC model preference is a general model blend, but leaning more toward the NAM.

The main topic for this forecast period is how much it will warm up and when the rain will move into the area.

The cloud cover that we had early this morning has moved out of the area. This is due to a current NW flow at all levels. This will lead to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. Along with the clearing skies, we will have a shift in winds out of the SW which will give us a veering wind profile giving us WAA warming our temperatures to near 60 degrees this afternoon. The SW winds will continue into tomorrow and actually pick up to 15-20 kts. This will warm out temperatures up to the middle 60's which is nearly 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Clouds will begin to make their way back into the area Wednesday night as RH values at 700mb will begin to increase. Along with that, we will have PWAT values increase also overnight up to 1 inch and increasing upward vertical motion Wednesday night as well. All those ingredients show a high possibility of rain that night. The rainfall looks to continue into Thursday morning. Along with the rain, we will have a cold front start to pass through the area. This will lead to a backing wind profile giving us CAA which will drop our temperatures throughout the day Thursday.


Monday, November 18, 2019




 


Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 40-44



Tuesday - Sunny. High: 56-60


Tuesday Night-  Clear. Low: 36-40



Wednesday - Sunny, becoming cloudy late. High: 62-66 


 Thursday -  Cloudy with rain. High: 58-62





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Discussion: 

Today, we had broken clouds up until midday, when clouds set in. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures tonight and tomorrow. However, the cloud blanket will move out to our east Tuesday, and we should have lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 50's. Clear skies will remain until Wednesday, until a cold front is expected to pass through Thursday - bringing clouds and rain. 


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Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm.  November 18, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The GFS was primarily utilized for this forecast along with SREF and SHARPpy. Today, a warm from was expected to move across the state of Missouri, however it seems to have stalled over Kansas City; letting the cold front catch up with it. WPC predicts that this will cause an occluded front to be positioned over Mid-Missouri 06Z Tuesday. By 12Z Tuesday, it is expected to move out to our east.

This morning, Columbia saw partly cloudy skies which transitioned into cloudy skies as moisture associated from the warm front to our west set in. It is expected to remain cloudy tonight, which will contribute to warmer low temperatures in the 40's. There is quite a large dry layer on the soundings for tonight, so if any precipitation were to occur, it would evaporate before reaching the ground.

Sunny skies will return Tuesday through Wednesday as the fronts will be out of the area, and temperatures will be warmer than average for this time of year. Soundings indicate little to no moisture Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be minimal advection with lines of 1000-500 mb thickness parallel to MSLP.

On Wednesday night, Missouri will see increasing cloud cover as the night progresses, and Thursday soundings indicate clouds and rain throughout the day.




Monday - Becoming cloudy. High: 50-54   

Monday Night - Cloudy. Slight chance for sprinkles. Low: 40-44 


Tuesday - Sunny. High: 54-58
 

Tuesday Night-  Clear. Low: 34-38


Wednesday - Sunny, becoming cloudy late. High: 60-64 




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Discussion: 
A warm front is scheduled to move through Columbia midday today allowing us to be on a warming trend for the next few days. Moisture will funnel in today in the form of cloud cover with a slight chance for some sprinkles overnight--if the droplets don't evaporate before reaching the ground. Otherwise, the moisture will move to the east tomorrow allowing for clear conditions from Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon. Increased sunshine will help temperatures rise above average mid-November conditions.
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Forecasters: Lieberman, Clemons, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00am.  November 18, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
We used a general model blend for this forecast. Looking at the 250mb winds, a jet max is over the Pacific NW. Currently, we are under a trough, and this will allow for the jet to steer moisture towards us this afternoon. The jet also has a factor in steering a warm front towards us today, as well. A warm front stretching all the way from southern Canada is off to our west in eastern Kansas; FROPA will occur in Columbia around 15-18Z allowing for WAA, and moisture will allow for cloud cover this afternoon into the evening. 12Z soundings from this morning suggest saturation overnight, but a dry layer exists from the surface to 850mb. If any rain occurs tonight, it is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground. Cloud cover, however, will persist through the night. Radiational cooling will occur, but cloud cover will allow for heat to stay close to the surface and temperatures to be warmer overnight.

Moisture quickly moves out of our region tomorrow morning--this is due to the fact that our moisture was limited as it funneled in from the Pacific NW instead of the Gulf. Clear conditions persist through Tuesday both day and night. Increased sunshine allows for temperatures to increase, but clear skies overnight will allow radiational cooling to fully occur. This will cause cooler temperatures Tuesday night. Moisture looks limited on Wednesday, as well, and southerly winds and clear skies will allow us to see temperatures in the lower 60s, about 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average for Mid-November in Columbia. However, thanks to the southerly winds, moisture from the Gulf will enter Missouri. Soundings also suggested lift in the mid-troposphere. Future forecasters will need to watch for cloud cover increasing Wednesday afternoon/evening and the potential for rainfall overnight.

Friday, November 15, 2019






Friday Night - Scattered Clouds.  Low: 26-30



Saturday - Scattered Clouds. High: 46-50




Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 30-34




Sunday - Overcast Skies.  High: 46-50



Monday - Overcast Skies.  High: 46-50




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Discussion: 

This Saturday, we expect warmer temperatures as we will still be under the influence of a high pressure system which is moving out to the northeast of Missouri. Clouds begin building overnight Saturday ahead of a low pressure system that will move in the area early Sunday morning. With this system, we are expecting light showers Sunday morning.
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Forecasters: Taylor, Balkissoon, Travis, Heaven, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm.  November 15, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From the 850 hPa height and wind map, we can see that we are currently under a high pressure system which is responsible for the warmer temperature which are experiencing tonight into Saturday night. We also notice a low pressure system just SE of Missouri which moves further south on Saturday. Though we are not under the influence of this system, we expect to be affected by another low pressure system which will begin to develop NW of Missouri around 21Z on Saturday.  We observed the highest range of absolute vorticity at 500 hPa on Sunday around 21Z, where we sit in the trough of this system.  From this GFS run, we expect this low pressure system to leave the area around 6Z on Monday.  


From the GFS map of  RH at 700 hPa, this is also verified as we see high levels of RH from Sunday through Monday.  However, we will have upward vertical motion around 15Z on Sunday.  It is at this time, the GFS soundings show the possibility for drizzle with PW values a little under an inch; these values are fairly low, but still look to support showers in central US.  The KI was 21, just 4 shy away from the required value for possible showers.  We expect traces of precipitation around this time in Columbia and a max of 0.1 inches 21Z east of Columbia.  From the NAM run we also get traces of precipitation Sunday 15Z.




Friday - Mostly clear. High: 44-48



Friday Night - Clouds build overnight. Low: 26-30



Saturday - Partly cloudy in the am with clouds clearing in the afternoon. High: 46-50



Saturday Night - Clouds build in overnight. Low: 30-34



Sunday - Overcast with showers in the late morningHigh: 46-50





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Discussion: 

A high pressure system will dominate the area most of the weekend. This will give us clear skies with more seasonal type temperatures. Saturday will be the day to get outdoors and enjoy since there will be warmer temperatures and plenty of sunshine. On Sunday clouds move in keeping us slightly cooler. There is a chance for light showers late morning.
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Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10:00am. November 15, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)


A high pressure system will remain in place over the area for the next two days. Because of this, Friday will clear and we will start a warming trend. The 21Z GFS sounding shows that overnight Friday we see an increase in moisture in the upper level . This leads to mid to upper level clouds. We see this moisture decrease in late morning on Saturday which will allow for the clearing skies on Saturday.   

An upper level trough moves through the area Sunday. Associated with this upper level trough is an increase in moisture that will lead to overcast skies and a windshift from south to northwest. This windshift, in addition to the cloud cover, will keep us slightly cooler. Skew-T's show saturation for a brief period in the morning. In  addition to this saturation we also see an increase in vorticity  at the 500mb level on the GFS ran model. Therefore, there is a possibility for light showers. At this time confidence is high that there will be rain showers instead of sleet or freezing rain due to the warmer temperatures.