Thursday, November 14, 2019

Thursday Night - Fog overnight. Low: 18-22

Friday - Fog in the morning and clear skies after sun up. High: 44-48

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 26-30

Saturday - Mostly Clear. High: 46-50

Sunday - Partly CloudyHigh: 48-52

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With high pressure dominating over the Central Missouri Region, the weekend will be rather pleasant. While there will be fog overnight on Thursday, this will dissipate after sunrise on Friday morning. 

For the Veterans Day Mizzou Football game, the crowds will not get the real military experience as there will be mostly clear skies and light winds. This will lead into Sunday, in which there will be partly cloudy skies, but overall nice conditions. 
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued:  10:00am. November 14, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

With a Shortwave Trough moving downstream of the region, the primary forecast challenges this weekend will be Fog overnight, winds and cloud cover over the weekend. As such the RAP Skew-t is the model of choice (MOC) for the Thursday night / Friday forecast and the SREF/HREF is for the Saturday / Sunday forecast.

Over the course of Thursday evening, into Friday morning there will be a radiation inversion setting up. The lower levels will also be saturated with RH values from 84-90%. As such this will cause fog conditions, which will also cause marginal impacts to roads as visibility will be expected to decrease down to under 2NM. Fog will be expected to dissipate by 0900(L) / 1500Z as RH values decrease under 80%.

Current Friday and Saturday conditions are still expected to be fair as the model RAP, SREF, and HREF are still showing high pressure dominating Central Missouri through both days. The HREF and SREF are showing a small short wave trough moving into the area late Saturday evening, to early Sunday morning. While we have dried out slightly over the weekend there will still be Omega values of less than 3 and less than 6 over the area, currently being progged at 10%. As such any remaining low-level moisture can still be pushed up to a point where it will cool and condense.,

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