Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 42-46

Wednesday Night - Starting off cloudy, with clouds clearing. Low: 22-26

 Thursday - Partly cloudy, clearing to clear later. High: 38-42

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22

Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 40-44

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Wednesday will start to see our winds come out of the southwest, bringing our temperatures up a good amount, but not for long.  A cold front is expected to pass overnight Wednesday, bringing northerly winds back into the area, and lowering temperatures.  No precipitation is expected with this front.  Columbia will be under the influence of high pressure after this front passes for most of the day Thursday, with the high passing overhead on Friday.  Temperatures are expected to bump up on Friday slightly.

Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  9:00am. November 13, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC indicates a general model blend, and as such we will be using the GFS for this forecast, with the SREF for temperature forecasting.

Temperatures are starting off quite cool Wednesday, with Sanborn Field reporting a temperature of 22 degrees.  Winds are already out of the south, so temperatures are expected to rise considerably through the day.  Wednesday will definitely be the warmest temperature of the forecast period given the strong WAA expected during most of the day.   Temperatures will start to cool off Wednesday night, as a cold front is expected to pass, along with clearing out of clouds.  Some clouds will hang around, however, and as such, temperatures have been left a couple degrees higher than if it were clear. 

Thursday will see Columbia come under the influence of a surface high behind the cold front that passed Wednesday night, keeping us in CAA through most of the day.  The few clouds remaining from the previous night are also expected to clear out, as soundings open up quite a bit during the day Thursday due to a lack of moisture at all levels.  Thursday night is expected to be the coldest day of the week, as clear skies and the tail end of the CAA is expected to happen overnight. 

The day Friday will see the surface high somewhat weaken while passing directly over Columbia, setting us into WAA around noon on Friday.  Soundings indicate high saturation between 200mb and 300mb.  No precipitation is expected during the forecast.

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