Thursday, November 21, 2019

Thursday - Cloudy skies. High: 58-62
Thursday Night - Cloudy Skies. Low: 32-36
Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 40-44
Friday Night - Cloudy, rain showers possible. Low: 30-34
Saturday - Morning clouds, afternoon clearing. High: 42-46

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Today, we have already topped out for our high temperature, since we have a cold front moving into our area. Rain will stick around into the morning to afternoon hours.  A cold front cam through this morning and temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Tonight, clouds will stick around, but winds will be switching to the north. Friday, temperatures will not be as warm as we have seen from the last few days. Scattered clouds in the morning to afternoon. Clouds will then move in overnight giving us a possibility for rain. Saturday, temperatures will remain chilly with partly sunny skies. 

Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Pauley
Issued:  10:00am: November 21, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions at Sanborn have us at 52 degrees under overcast skies with WSW winds at 13mph, gusting to 20mph at times. 

WPC recommends a 00z ECMWF and UKMET, and an 18z GEFS mean for temperatures. The GFS and GEFS were used thing morning because it reaches out to the end of our forecast period. 

This morning, we had a cold front pass through the area at 13Z which is bringing us a change in wind direction from the SW to NW and with the frontal passage temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Going into this afternoon and evening, we will begin to see a trough that is currently set up over the desert SW make its way into the area. This trough will give us a backing wind profile which will switch out winds to out of the NW overnight giving us CAA which will drop out temperatures overnight. This cold front looks to be relatively dry as the 06Z soundings show the column dry from 850mb down to the surface. Friday, skies look to clear out as well as we will have high temperatures below seasonal average. as the front has passed through the area drying us out for the afternoon. However, Friday night looks interesting as we will have a shortwave pass through the area which will give us the possibility of rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Current indications are that any rain we receive will be light in nature as the 06Z sounding shows the column becoming saturated from 250mb down to 850mb, yet there is a dry layer just above the surface. It appears that there may be enough moisture from the upper levels to punch through that dry layer. Saturday looks to be once again cooler than seasonal values as also skies will begin to clear out into Saturday afternoon. Lastly, nothing is set in stone just yet, however a possibility of a changeover from rain to snow can't be ruled out for Saturday morning. Refer to the later forecast shifts for more information.

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