Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 52-56
Thursday - Mostly cloudy. Rain ending mid-morning. High: 58-62
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Tonight, rain will develop after midnight, ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be mild overnight with a low in the low to mid fifties. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the region, causing temperatures to continually drop throughout the day into Thursday night. Winds will continue to come from the north on Friday keeping temperatures down along with cloud cover. Cloudy skies Saturday morning, will eventually clear in the afternoon.
Forecasters: Munley. Heaven, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued: 5:00p.m. November 20, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC model diagnostics discussion indicates a general model blend for the current forecast period and system, and as such it will be used for this forecast period. The models used are the GFS and the SREF.
Tonight, WAA continues over the area due to a low located over the Central Plains that will move into Iowa overnight. This, along with cloudy skies, will allow temperatures to stay in the fifties overnight. Rain is expected to begin to develop ahead of a cold front after midnight. Rainfall total is expected to be between a quarter and a half inch.
On Thursday, the low will move from Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes, and thus will cause WAA to transition to CAA. Cold frontal passage is expected to begin mid-morning. Rain is expected to end at approximately the same time. This will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day and into the overnight hours. In the afternoon, the low over the Great Lakes will move too far away to exert influence, and a high located over the Northern Plains will begin to act upon the area. After this point, CAA is expected to weaken and should end overnight Thursday.
Friday, cloudy skies will prevent temperatures from warming up beyond the mid forties. There is a possibility for precipitation Friday morning; however, we do not have confidence at this time that this will occur. We will be tracking any changes and will revise the forecast if necessary.
Finally, Saturday will bring rain in the early morning and cloudy skies. Skies are expected to clear throughout the day, which will allow temperatures to rise a little more than it will on Friday.