Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Tuesday - Clear skies and cold. High: 22-26

Tuesday Night - Clear and cold. Low: 14-18

Wednesday - AM sun, PM increasing clouds. High: 42-46

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy skies. Low: 26-30

Thursday - AM mostly cloudy, afternoon clearing. High: 38-42

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This morning has brought us record low temperatures and clear skies. Those clear skies will continue throughout this afternoon. However, the temperatures will remain well below average. Tomorrow we will see a warm up due to a change in wind direction from the southwest as high pressure moves to the east. However, the winds will change direction again and shift out of the northwest overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as we will have another cold front pass through the area. This front however looks to be weaker and lacks moisture, so at most we will have cloudy skies Wednesday night. Temperatures don't appear to drop significantly either.

Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley, Travis
Issued:  10:00am. November 12, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions are sunny skies and temperatures between 10-12 degrees with winds from the northwest at 4-7 mph giving us wind chill values of 3-5 degrees.

The model preference was a general model blend for the forecast period, so a blend of NAM and GFS was used.

The main topic of discussion for this forecast period is a potential warm up and how long that warmup will last. When looking at the 250-mb winds, it shows that there is a trough off to the east and a ridge off to the west. The exiting longwave trough to our east has allowed for a strong arctic air mass to infiltrate the central CONUS. RH values at 700mb are in the single digit percentile meant clear skies and strong radiational cooling overnight. This combined with northwesterly flow at 850mb from the high to our west has resulted in extreme cold. This cold and dry air will continue into tonight as once again we will see low temperatures well below seasonal values. However Wednesday, we will see a change in wind direction due to the aforementioned ridge making it's way into the area. This ridge will give us a wind direction change to winds out of the southwest. This wind change will also bring us some brief WAA which will warm our temperatures nearly twenty degrees warmer than today. We will also start to see some clouds making their way into the area into Wednesday evening. This is because our RH values at 700mb will increase to 55 to 60%. However, we will see another wind direction change as another cold front will move into the area. The models are in good agreement that the passage of this front will be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and while there will be a wind shift to the northwest once again, there will not be as much CAA associated with this cold front, so we will see a drop in temperatures for Thursday, but not as extreme as the previous frontal passage.

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