Thursday, November 7, 2019

Thursday - Early morning clouds, late morning clearing. High: 36-40.

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22.

 Friday - Sunny Skies. High: 38-42.

 Friday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 28-32

Saturday - Passing AM Clouds, Sunny in the Afternoon. High: 55-59.

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Clouds will start to move out of the area during the morning hours. We will continue to see unseasonable cold temperatures throughout today and tonight due to the cold frontal passage that came through early this morning. Along with the cold air, we will see some gusty winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. These winds mixed with the cold air today into tonight will give us wind chills in the mid 20s this afternoon and low 10s overnight. The skies will remain clear Friday and temperatures will warm a few degrees as winds will begin to shift and come out if the east. Friday night, our temperatures will start to moderate some as the winds will start to shift out of the south and southwest which will warm the temperatures up to more seasonal conditions for Saturday. We also have the potential to see some cloud cover Saturday morning, but whatever morning clouds we see, will move out for Saturday afternoon.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Pauley, Munley
Issued:  10:00am. November 7, 2019.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  
Current observations from COU is overcast skies and temperatures in the low 30s and winds out of the North at 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph giving us wind chill values in the low 20s.

The main topic for today's forecast is when will the skies clear out, and how cold will the gusty winds make it feel outside. So to start off, the WPC recommends going with the NAM 00Z model for this forecast. Starting off this morning, we are in the post frontal zone of the passing cold front which is giving us our gusty winds this morning, so the CAA that we are receiving from this frontal passage will persist throughout this afternoon into tonight. This afternoons high temperature could be anywhere from 15-20 degrees below the 30 year climatological average for this day, so well below average. The skies will remain clear as well which will lead to radiations cooling which will drop our temperatures into the upper 10s to low 20s and those gusty winds will give us wind chill values in the low 10s. Tomorrow, the skies will remain clear, however we will begin to see a wind shift due to a high pressure moving off to our east bringing us easterly winds. Those winds will warm our temperatures by a few degrees, but will remain well below seasonal values. Friday night however, winds will begin to shift out of the south and eventually southwest which will bring us some WAA which will moderate our low temperatures to more seasonal values. The southwest winds will continue into Saturday which will warm our temperatures us to more seasonal values for this time of year. 00Z NAM soundings look to give us the potential of some early morning cloud cover due to the column at 850mb becoming nearly saturated. However, the column widens for Saturday afternoon, giving us mostly sunny skies for the rest of Saturday.

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