Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Sunny. High 62-66

Wednesday Night - Becoming cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54

Thursday - Cloudy with early morning rain. High: 58-62

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The cloud cover that we experienced early this morning has since moved on and we will be experiencing mostly sunny skies throughout the rest of the day. Along with the sunny skies, we will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 50's. These warmer temperatures are due to winds starting to shift out of the SW as a ridge of high pressure makes it's way into the area. Overnight, we expect to have some mid level clouds with the low reaching the lower 40's. The clouds will clear out once in the morning and we will have another sunny day Wednesday with a high in the lower 60's. Overnight Wednesday, clouds and rain will move ahead of a cold front with a low in the low 50's. The rain will clear out late Thursday morning and we will begin to see some afternoon sun as we expect temperatures to rise back to the upper 50's.

Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00AM.  November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Current conditions at Sanborn Field are mostly sunny skies and 49 degrees with winds out of the west at 7-9mph gusting to 13-15mph.

WPC model preference is a general model blend, but leaning more toward the NAM.

The main topic for this forecast period is how much it will warm up and when the rain will move into the area.

The cloud cover that we had early this morning has moved out of the area. This is due to a current NW flow at all levels. This will lead to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. Along with the clearing skies, we will have a shift in winds out of the SW which will give us a veering wind profile giving us WAA warming our temperatures to near 60 degrees this afternoon. The SW winds will continue into tomorrow and actually pick up to 15-20 kts. This will warm out temperatures up to the middle 60's which is nearly 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Clouds will begin to make their way back into the area Wednesday night as RH values at 700mb will begin to increase. Along with that, we will have PWAT values increase also overnight up to 1 inch and increasing upward vertical motion Wednesday night as well. All those ingredients show a high possibility of rain that night. The rainfall looks to continue into Thursday morning. Along with the rain, we will have a cold front start to pass through the area. This will lead to a backing wind profile giving us CAA which will drop our temperatures throughout the day Thursday.

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