Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 31-35.

Thursday - Cloudy, with skies clearing in the afternoon. High: 36-40.

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22.

Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 38-42.

Saturday - Sunny. High: 55-59.

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Tonight, a cold front is expected to begin before midnight shifting winds from southerly to northerly. Thursday will be cloudy with skies clearing in the afternoon with temperatures being much cooler. Friday will be partly cloudy and slightly warmer as a high pressure moves into Missouri causing the winds to change from northerly to southerly. As the high pressure moves to the east, the winds will become southwesterly bringing clear skies and warmer temperatures on Saturday.
Forecasters: Heaven, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00 p.m. November 6, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  

WPC model diagnostics recommends a general model blend, and the forecast will be made primarily using the GFS.  The SREF will be used for temperature forecasting.

Heading into tonight, cold frontal passage is expected to begin before midnight, shifting winds from southerly to northerly. A slight possibility for rain exists; however, model soundings only indicate saturation from the surface to 800 hPa. We do not believe that this will support rain. At the same time, a surface high located over the Northern Plains will bring weak CAA over the area, but will soon fizzle out as the atmosphere moves from barotropic to baroclinic. Cloudy skies will help to mitigate these two mechanisms from dropping temperatures too low.

Moving into Thursday, the surface high previously located over the Northern Plains will move into Iowa Thursday morning, which will maintain northerly flow over the area. Saturation in the upper levels of the atmosphere, mainly between 200 to 400 hPa, will cause skies to be cloudy, but a widening between temperature and dew point in the afternoon will lead to clearing skies. Thursday night, clear skies coupled with northerly flow will allow for temperatures to drop significantly, possibly into the teens.

Friday, the surface high will move into Missouri, and, at this point, will begin to elongate over the northeastern mid-Mississippi Valley. This will cause variable winds as it eventually veers from northerly to southerly. The high will continue to elongate as it moves east, and thus will exert less control over the area as time passes. Model soundings indicate small areas of saturation in the upper atmosphere causing skies to be partly cloudy.

Saturday will be substantially warmer as southerly flow continues, and is assisted by a surface low located over the Northern Plains that will help to warm up the area. Sunny skies are expected, as model soundings indicate no areas of saturation in the atmosphere.  

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