Friday, November 15, 2019

Friday Night - Scattered Clouds.  Low: 26-30

Saturday - Scattered Clouds. High: 46-50

Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 30-34

Sunday - Overcast Skies.  High: 46-50

Monday - Overcast Skies.  High: 46-50

Thanks to for the icons!


This Saturday, we expect warmer temperatures as we will still be under the influence of a high pressure system which is moving out to the northeast of Missouri. Clouds begin building overnight Saturday ahead of a low pressure system that will move in the area early Sunday morning. With this system, we are expecting light showers Sunday morning.
Forecasters: Taylor, Balkissoon, Travis, Heaven, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm.  November 15, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From the 850 hPa height and wind map, we can see that we are currently under a high pressure system which is responsible for the warmer temperature which are experiencing tonight into Saturday night. We also notice a low pressure system just SE of Missouri which moves further south on Saturday. Though we are not under the influence of this system, we expect to be affected by another low pressure system which will begin to develop NW of Missouri around 21Z on Saturday.  We observed the highest range of absolute vorticity at 500 hPa on Sunday around 21Z, where we sit in the trough of this system.  From this GFS run, we expect this low pressure system to leave the area around 6Z on Monday.  

From the GFS map of  RH at 700 hPa, this is also verified as we see high levels of RH from Sunday through Monday.  However, we will have upward vertical motion around 15Z on Sunday.  It is at this time, the GFS soundings show the possibility for drizzle with PW values a little under an inch; these values are fairly low, but still look to support showers in central US.  The KI was 21, just 4 shy away from the required value for possible showers.  We expect traces of precipitation around this time in Columbia and a max of 0.1 inches 21Z east of Columbia.  From the NAM run we also get traces of precipitation Sunday 15Z.

No comments:

Post a Comment