Friday, November 20, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

The Mizzou Campus Weather Forecast Will be on break during the week of November 23-27. We will return on November 30th at 10am!

Happy Thanksgiving!


Friday Night -
  Cloudy. Rain starting after midnight. Low: 46-50


Saturday -
Cloudy. Rain throughout the day. High: 44-48

 

Saturday Night -
Cloudy skies. Rain continuing. Low: 38-42

 

Sunday -
  Clouds remain. Rain ending around noon. High: 46-50

Monday -
Clear in the morning, becoming cloudy. Rain beginning in the afternoon. High: 46-50
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Discussion: 

Thanksgiving break in Columbia will start off with cloud cover and rain chances. The cold front that passed Friday afternoon will bring cooler temperatures with more clouds and a chance for rain Friday night. The rain will persist throughout the day on Saturday as temperatures continue to drop. Mid-Missouri will see a break from the rain Sunday afternoon but skies won't clear off until Monday morning. The chances for showers and clouds will return on Monday afternoon when moisture moves back into the area.
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Forecaster: Orr, Vochatzer, Travis
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 20 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
 
Cloud cover and a high possibility of rain dominate Mid-Missouri over this forecast period. The passage of a cold front on both Friday and Saturday night provide the moisture for these systems and varied temperatures. This forecast was assembled using GFS model outputs, GFS soundings, and SREF and GEFS plumes.
 
The GFS plot of 250-mb heights and winds indicates that Columbia is below the influence of a jet streak until 21z on Sunday when the passage of a trough puts Mid-Missouri back under its influence. Before this time, upper level divergence passes through the area, giving plenty of support for the rain events during this time. On 500-mb plots of heights and vorticity, increased circulation remains out of the area until 12z Saturday when chances for rain are at their highest. The magnitude of circulation increases and reaches a maximum with the passage of the trough on 12z Sunday. 
 
GFS 700-mb maps of height and relative humidity show that there is abundant moisture in the atmosphere to provide for the upcoming rain events. While there is moisture present at 21z Friday, soundings at this time show a layer of dry air near the surface, preventing any substantial rainfall. The atmosphere becomes mostly saturated around 06z Sunday, meaning the best opportunities for rain begin after this time. The plentiful moisture remains over Mid-Missouri until 21z Sunday when skies are able to clear out. This break doesn't last long, however, as more moisture returns 21z Monday, allowing for afternoon rainfall. 

At 850 mb, GFS plots of heights, winds, and temperatures give the best depiction of the cold fronts passing by during the forecast period. Surface plots of MSLP and thickness support the passage of these cold fronts. Friday's cold front, passing at 18z, brings with it cooler temperatures. This is the reason for the gradually decreasing temperatures on Saturday. The second cold front passes at 06z Sunday.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 Friday- Increasing clouds. High:60-64


Friday Night -
Cloudy. Low: 44-48

 

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain likely after noon. High: 44-48
 

Saturday Night -
Rain. Low: 36-40


Sunday -
Rain ending by noon with skies clearing up early afternoon. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

Our pleasant weather transitions into a wet weekend as students head home for the upcoming Thanksgiving break. Friday will see increasing clouds through the day with one more day of temperatures in the 60's. Clouds will keep the sun away Saturday through lunchtime Sunday and rain chances will increase Saturday afternoon with as much as a half inch of rainfall possible through Sunday morning. This looks to be a rain event and not a storm event as a cold front slides through the region Saturday night. Temperatures will hover in the low to mid-40's for the majority of the weekend except for early Sunday morning when upper 30's are possible.


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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 20 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
While the weather has been pleasant the past few days, the focus now shifts to a front that will bring rain and cooler temperatures to the region. A blend of the 06Z NAM and GFS were used for the forecast period. GEFS and SREF were used for the consensus of models outputs. 

The 250-mb chart of heights and wind speed shows the region is in zonal flow and in the right-entrance region of a 130 knot jets streak core at 00Z Saturday. This provides weak divergence aloft and convergence at the surface. As the jet moves eastward, Mid-Missouri becomes in the left-exit region of a Sub-Tropical jet streak core at 00z Sunday where there is divergence at the surface and weaker divergence is located aloft. At this time a Polar jet trough is making its' way into the region having its axis overhead around 15Z Sunday. The trough travels just east of St. Louis by the end of the forecast period. 

Looking at the 500-mb vorticity and heights, Columbia begins to see vorticity enter the area around 18Z Saturday. This comes ahead of the shallow trough that moves through Sunday morning. Vorticity also will advect into the region as the trough moves through around 18Z Sunday.

Looking at the 700-mb, 850-mb and forecast soundings, Columbia will keep dry for Friday and into Saturday. Saturday morning, much of the atmosphere above 750-mb will be near saturation, while a North-Northeasterly wind will transport drier air near the surface. This should keep Saturday morning dry, however there is a slight chance the region observes light rain during this time. The main precipitation will begin around 18Z Saturday and last through Sunday morning with up to 0.5 inch possible. Sunday dry air will filter into the region from the North-Northwest allowing the sun to shine by afternoon.
 
 
 
 
 

 

Thursday, November 19, 2020


 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 54-58


Friday -
Mostly cloudy. High: 60-64


Friday Night -
Mostly cloudy. Low: 48-52
 

Saturday -
Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. High: 46-50


Sunday -
Rain ending by noon with skies clearing up early afternoon. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

After an unseasonably warm Thursday, temperatures will take a dive to kick off the weekend. A stationary front passes through the Columbia area Friday evening around 6pm. Temperatures following the slow moving front will steadily decrease and by Saturday drop to near average for this time of year. The beautiful weather will turn to a cloudy and rainy Saturday with these conditions lasting until noon on Sunday. After the rain clears, we will end this weekend with clear skies Sunday afternoon.


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Forecaster: Cochran, Nixon, Travis
Issued: 6:00 PM CST 19 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
The focus for this forecast period is the front moving through the Columbia area, bringing with it clouds, rain, and cooler temperatures. The models used for this forecast period were the 18Z GFS and 18Z NAM, as well as GEFS and SREF. 
 
The upper level ridge responsible for our recent pleasant weather pattern begins to move out of the area on Thursday night. This will be replaced with a shortwave seen at 500mb passing over mid-Missouri by Saturday at 00Z. This region also begins to get a large influx of moisture around this time, suggested by both the NAM and GFS 700-mb plots of RH. This will result in very well saturated air from about 850mb to almost 300mb as shown by model soundings. However, there did not appear to be any significant CAPE values, so the likelihood of storms is minuscule. 
 
This column of well saturated air will be met by a surface low pressure system passing through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The low does not appear to be well developed, but will still aid in the presence of rain beginning around 00Z on Sunday. This will last until no later than noon, with skies clearing up in the early afternoon after the atmosphere has significantly dried out in the upper levels. 
 
The main focus for the next forecast period should be the influence of a longwave ridge that appears to be making its way into the area within the next couple days.

 


 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Thursday -
Partly Cloudy. Windy. High: 68-72



Thursday Night -
Partly Cloudy. Low: 54-58

Friday -
Cloudy. High: 58-62


Friday Night -
Scattered Showers. Low: 44-48


Saturday -
Cloudy. Rain continuing throughout the day. High: 48-52

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Discussion: 

Thursday will be relatively nice.  We will experience much warmer temperatures than we have been this week.  With strong winds pulling Gulf moisture into our area ahead of a cold front.  Due to that cold front, Friday will be much colder than Thursday.  After the front moves in, we will have winds out of the northwest and a continuation of today's partly cloudy skies with chances of rain increasing throughout the day.  The rain will peak in the early morning hours of Saturday just after sunrise.  Though no storms are expected, Saturday will see rain for most of the day. 
 
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Forecaster: Ede, Gasch, Sumrall
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 19 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
The focus for this forecast period is a frontal passage and rain moving into the region Friday night into Saturday morning. SREF and GEFS plumes were used to forecast temperatures, and the GFS was primarily used to forecast timing. Shorter range products such as the NAM were used to verify this forecast. 
 
Starting in the upper levels,  the ridge that has been over Missouri will move eastward, which will allow for the unsettled weather this weekend to move in. Towards the end of the weekend, a trough will move through. 
 
Going down through the atmosphere, at 850 mb, there is a strong low level jet over Missouri today. This will be the cause of the strong winds that will be experienced today with gusts upwards of 40 knots. The jet will weaken throughout this forecast period, but that is what is going to provide the moisture for this weekend's rain. 

Friday, a cold front will be entering the area with increased cloud cover. Winds will become northerly, causing temperatures to be cooler than today. Fog is a possibility in the morning with relative humidity values of more than 90%. Soundings from the GFS show complete saturation up through 850 mb. As the day progresses, upper level moisture increases, bringing the chances for rain up, as well. This rain will be scattered throughout the afternoon and be relatively light.

This weekend, there is no significant convection expected due to a lack of vorticity, so thunderstorms are not expected. The rain we do get will be steady. The front will stall on Friday, giving Missouri the best chances for rain Friday night into Saturday. 

Looking at a cross section analysis, the atmosphere is completely saturated, indicating rain will last throughout the entire day on Saturday. The heaviest rain of the weekend will occur mid-morning through late afternoon on Saturday. Strong vertical motion will promote the development of strong showers in the afternoon. The front will get moving late Saturday evening and take the moisture with it. Rain should wrap up early Sunday morning.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020


 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Wednesday Night -
Clear skies. Low: 46-50

Thursday -
Mostly sunny. Breezy. High: 68-72

Thursday Night -
Becoming cloudy. Low: 52-56

Friday -
Cloudy skies. Light rain beginning before noon. High: 60-64

Saturday -
Cloudy. Rain continuing throughout the day. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

Mid-Missouri's warmup continues into Thursday. Strong winds out of the south will make for windy conditions and help the temperatures reach almost 20 degrees above average for mid-November. Clouds return Thursday night ahead of a frontal system sagging into the region from the northwest. Light showers and drizzle is possible by noon on Friday, but the heavier and more steady rain will hold off until Saturday and continue all day. This front will be slow to move over the Midwest on Friday and keeping skies cloudy into Saturday. Once the front passes Friday afternoon, northeasterly winds will steadily bring town temperatures to near average by Saturday.
 
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Forecaster: Travis
Issued: 5:30 PM CST 18 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
The main issue being looked at for this forecast period is the strangely shaped front that will pass over Columbia Friday afternoon, bringing with it a prolonged period of clouds and rain. The GFS was primarily used for this forecast with consultation of ensemble guidance (GEFS and SREF plumes) for temperatures, rain timing, and QPF.
 
Upper-level analysis shows the central CONUS underneath a ridge and wedged between a mature longwave exiting to the northeast of Missouri and an amplifying wave moving over the western CONUS. The upper-level ridging and zonal flow regime over the Midwest has been responsible for the crystal clear skies of Tuesday and Wednesday. 
 
As the wave to the west approaches, the GFS suggests Missouri will see one more day of clear skies before the flow switches meridional out ahead of the trough. GFS prognostic plots of 250-hPa winds show the polar jet stream stays well to the north for the entirety of the forecast period (keeping the coldest air locked up behind it). By Friday evening and into Saturday, Missouri sits under the inflection point of the trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS. A polar jet streak to the northeast and a subtropical jet streak to the southwest will result increased divergence propagating eastward and placing itself over Missouri by Saturday afternoon. This gives rise to a question as old as time: is the left exit region of the subtropical jet streak coupling with the right entrance region of the polar jet streak? Well, if I have to ask myself the question, the answer is likely yes! 

This pattern reflects itself well at 500 hPa. Quiet, laminar flow remains the story over the central CONUS until the above mentioned upper-level trough moves off of the Rockies. GFS maps of 500-hPa height and absolute vorticity depict increased circulation associated with the trough co-located in time with the coupled divergence aloft. This will provide ample dynamic support for a rain event this weekend should lower level moisture exist. A quick look at the GFS' 700-hPa maps of height and RH suggest that more than enough widespread moisture will be present over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This comes as no surprise after looking at GFS 850-hPa guidance. Prognostics of 850-hPa height and winds indicate a strong >50kt LLJ will be chugging across the Midwest, originating from the moisture-rich Gulf of Mexico. This persistent LLJ will also be responsible for strong WAA bringing Thursday high temperatures near 20 degrees above average. 
 
This comes as two 850-hPa highs parks themselves within fairly close proximity to Missouri. The first sits over Nebraska, resulting in NE winds behind a frontal boundary that will set up by Friday afternoon. The second is really just a far westward extension of the Bermuda high and is responsible for the SW dominant low-level flow to the south of the frontal boundary. Looking at GFS plots of MSLP, the surface boundary will be slow to move to the southeast. The GFS hints at FROPA occurring before midnight on Friday night. Breezy surface winds (>20kts) will give another windy day Thursday, dying down post frontal passage. After which temperatures will be on a steady decline into Saturday. That being said, winds at 850 hPa will remain out of the south for the remainder of the forecast period will keep advecting in enough moisture to support a continuous rain event that persists beyond the scope of this forecast. 

Model soundings reveal more to the story that plan-view maps overlooked. Saturation ahead of the approaching system begins in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Skies will cloud up before sunrise on Friday as full saturation below 700 hPa occurs by 18z on Friday. Some UVM collocated with the low-level saturation points to early onset of light showers Friday afternoon before the main rain event ensues on Saturday. However, little to no upper-level dynamic support, and moisture of only 150 hPa deep, will likely only result in isolated to scattered sprinkles after noon on Friday. As the day turns into night, saturation will continue from the ground up and the column will remain fully saturated until the end of the forecast period. GFS soundings show computed K-indices getting into the upper 20s and lower 30s and PWATs continuously staying above 1 inch by Saturday--another hint at a measurable amount of precip. 3-hourly QPF plumes from both the SREF and GEFS hint at the aforementioned possibility of light showers on Friday, but both models hold off the heaviest, most steady rain until Saturday afternoon. Total amounts differ between the two ensembles. The SREF mean sits at about 0.5 inches by Sunday at 06z while the GEFS mean at about 0.80 inches of rain. 

Future shifts will need to watch the what this system does into Sunday as Skew-Ts by the end of this forecast period (Sunday 06z) are still fully saturated. Totals will likely increase further on Sunday. Needless to say, Missouri will likely receive a nice rain event that will help keep us out of drought going into late November.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Wednesday - 
Sunny skies and breezy. High: 60-64
 
 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50

 
Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72
 
  

Thursday Night -
Partly cloudy. Low: 52-56


Friday -
Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. High: 62-66

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Discussion: 

We are returning to warmer than average conditions during this forecast period. Today and Thursday, strong winds from the southwest will bring warm, clear conditions. The strong wind is responsible for a wildfire hazard to our west that could potentially affect our area. A cold front moving through early Friday morning will cause temperatures to drop slightly, but still warmer than average. The cold front will increase moisture levels, allowing clouds to form and showers in the afternoon.
 
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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall
Issued: 9 AM CST 18 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
A combination of the 06Z GFS model and SREF plumes were used to build this forecast. The main focus for this forecast period is the warming trend today and tomorrow followed by a cold front that will bring increased moisture levels.

A high pressure system to our east and low pressure to our west are responsible for the strong pressure gradient that currently sits over the midwest. This will contribute to the warming trend by causing WAA. Thursday, the pressure gradient relaxes slightly, but a strong LLJ over us will cause even stronger WAA and warmer temperatures for the day. 

Thursday night, a shortwave trough north of Minnesota will move a cold front through our area, bringing increased levels of moisture with it. The LLJ will aid with moisture advection as the cold front passes. The 700 mb level shows that increased RH and negative omega values will be present Friday. GFS soundings show that the atmosphere will be saturated from the surface through 750 mb. Low level clouds and rain are expected Friday afternoon. Models show the cold front stalling out in northern Missouri. This will impact the amount of precipitation and the timing and should be monitored in future forecasts.


Tuesday, November 17, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Tuesday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - 
Sunny skies and breezy. High: 62-66
 
 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50

 
Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72
 

Friday -
Partly sunny. High: 64-68

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Discussion: 

Today was the only fall-like day of the week, as temperature will soar into the 60s and even 70s in the next few days. A calm, but warm, weather pattern will set up across Mid-MO tomorrow, providing clear skies, dry conditions, above-average temperatures through Friday. Southerly winds will allow for the warm-up, but they could be gusty at times. No moisture will move into the area until Friday, as clouds will return.
 
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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas
Issued: 4 PM CST 17 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
A general model blend of the 12Z NAM, GFS and SREF was used to create this forecast. The main focus of this time period is the warming trend Mid-MO will be experiencing through the week.

A 250mb trough is trekking eastward, and a mid-level ridging pattern follows behind it, which will be partly responsible for our warming temperatures. The ridge will allow for south/southwesterly flow into the central CONUS. Through the midweek, a LLJ at 850mb will amplify across the middle Mississippi Valley, allowing even more southwesterly winds to make their way into Columbia. WAA is expected to occur throughout most of the forecast period, beginning tonight. At the surface, a warm front is developing over central Nebraska and Kansas, and FROPA will occur between 06Z and 12Z tomorrow. Forecast wind gusts could reach 30-40 MPH as warm air is funneled into the region.

Moisture makes no threat to Mid-MO until Friday, as a cold front approaches the Midwest. Currently, this cold front is attached to the low associated with the aforementioned warm front. Soundings indicate mid-level clouds to spread out over the state as the front moves closer to us and gains moisture content from the WAA over the next few days. However, the NAM and GFS expect the front to stall to our north and become quasi-stationary through Friday and the weekend. Future forecasters should pay attention to the timing and impacts of this front, as the clouds could inhibit warming and saturation could occur earlier than first believed.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday -
Sunny. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - 
Sunny skies. High: 62-66
 
 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 44-48

 
Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72
 
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 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


Discussion:  
Today's temperatures will warm up to the mid-50s supplemented by sunshine and little cloud cover as an area of high pressure develops over the Midwest. 
Heading into tonight, temperatures will drop into the upper-30s. On Wednesday, temperatures will 
climb into the mid- to upper-60s as the flow shifts to southwesterly. Wednesday night will see clear 
skies with lows in the mid-40s. Thursday's temperatures will increase to reach highs in the lower-70s, 
far above average temperatures for the month of November.


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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter
Issued: 10 AM CST 17 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
This forecast was generated by a general model blend of the 12Z NAM & 06Z GFS, supplemented by the SREF Plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the increasing temperatures as the week progresses.

Currently, an upper-level ridge is in place over the western CONUS, with an upper-level trough located over New England. Both of these features are moving to the east at the time of this writing. Little to no moisture was present in the atmospheric column over mid-Missouri, leading to cloudless skies over the past 12 hours. At the surface, a cold front had just passed through our region, leading to cooler temperatures in the upper-30s this morning, but a surface high, presently located over Iowa, was rapidly building into the region. The flow at the surface is currently out of the northwest, and this flow will persist throughout the day today, resulting in temperatures lower than we have experienced in the past few days with Tuesday's highs reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight Tuesday night, winds began to shift to the west, with temperatures falling into the upper-30s. On Wednesday, the majority of the Midwest sits below an upper-level ridge which continues to keep us dry with warm temperatures in the mid-60s and clear skies expected. Winds will continue to gradually shift throughout the day Wednesday, with southwesterly winds expected by afternoon. This will aid in ushering in warmer air throughout the rest of the week. By Thursday morning, winds will begin to increase as we sit between an upper-level ridge to our east and a upper-level trough to our west. The steep pressure gradient between both pressure systems increases our winds as the low-pressure system located over Kansas pushes eastward. We remain dry throughout Thursday with a few upper-level clouds visible. Temperatures will reach well-above average temperatures increasing to the lower-70s.

The next area of concern is the upper-level low that begins to deepen over northern Kansas. This system is forecasted by the NAM and GFS to bring with it precipitation and colder temperatures after the passage of the initial cold front.

Monday, November 16, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 30-34


Tuesday - 
Sunny skies. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - 
Sunny skies. High: 62-66



Thursday -
Mostly sunny. High: 68-72
 
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Discussion: 

Today's temperatures were above-average, supplemented with sunshine and southwesterly winds. A cold front will pass through early tomorrow morning, only bringing seasonal temperatures to Mid-MO. A warm front is expected to follow short after, providing more above-average temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will pick back up out of the south through the midweek, supplying these warmer temperatures and a little bit of cloud cover. 
 
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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons
Issued: 4 PM CST 16 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
This forecast was generated by a general model blend of the 18Z NAM & GFS, supplemented with the SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is the rollercoaster of temperatures expected from two imminent fronts that will pass through Mid-MO within 24 hours of each other.

Strong storms that moved across Columbia Saturday night were associated with an occluded low with a central pressure below 980mb and a large pressure gradient across the mid and upper Midwest. We felt the effects of it long after its passage in the form of strong winds. Winds were a tad gusty as surface pressure increased through the day today, but those are expected to calm overnight. At the time of writing, we sit under a non-amplified trough with zonal flow. A very weak cold front is expected to move over Mid-MO around 12Z tomorrow, as CAA will occur in the middle Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will shift out of the north, and coming from a dry air mass, no clouds or precipitation will impact Columbia. 

By 12Z Wednesday, WAA will be dominating the Midwest as a warm front lifts over the region. A ridging pattern will set up across the central and eastern CONUS, and low-level gusty winds will start to advect warmth and moisture into the area. This will allow for a few clouds and temperatures to near 70 on Thursday. An amplified LLJ over the lower Mississippi Valley along with a large anticyclone will provide sustained winds of 20 kts or so on Wednesday and Thursday. Future forecasters should watch for the moisture associated with the warm front. Currently, the lower 500mb of the atmosphere looks dry, but this could change as we end the work week.