Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 26-30

 

Friday - Clear in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 46-50

 

Friday Night - Cloudy skies leading to rain starting around midnight. Low: 36-40
 

Saturday - Overcast. Rain throughout the day into the evening. High: 56-60

 

Sunday- Windy and mostly sunny. High: 50-54

 

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Discussion: 

As the week comes to a close, expect colder temperatures as a cold front moves through Thursday night. Friday will be pleasant as a high-pressure system passes in the morning, being followed by partly cloudy skies. However, anticipate rain beginning around midnight persisting into Saturday. Winds from the southwest will bring warmer temperatures for Friday night into Saturday. Rain will briefly taper off by the afternoon on Saturday, but will return Saturday night.  Succeeding the late night cold front, strong northwest winds will bring a return of colder temperatures and for Sunday. 

 

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Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Travis

Issued: 6PM CST 12 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This weekend we see two cold fronts passing over Columbia, causing fluctuating temperatures and precipitation on Saturday. This forecast was assembled using the 18Z GFS model while referencing the SREF and GEFS plumes for temperature.

Looking at the 250-hPa level, GFS depicts a long wave traveling across the U.S. over the weekend with it's trough passing over Columbia by Saturday night. The 500-hPa level sees significant circulation over the Midwest on Friday and Saturday, that propagates out of the region by Sunday at 15Z. The 700-hPa level shows a dry atmosphere most of Friday, with the air saturating on Saturday. Unlike Thursday night's front, there will be more than enough moisture to support precipitation throughout Saturday. Model soundings tend to support this argument with deep enough saturation in the column for widespread precipitation to occur. It then drys up again Sunday after the front passes through.

Looking at the GFS surface plots we can see a cold front passing through on Thursday at 23Z. This will be accompanied by moderate cold air advection resulting in much cooler temperatures for Thursday night and Friday day. With this we also see a wind shift from the SW to the NNW, which helps to transport that cold air to Columbia. High pressure builds in quickly behind the front, keeping skies clear until roughly Saturday at 03Z. At this time, GFS soundings show increasing saturation around 500 hPa. This will cause high level cirrus clouds forming ahead of the approaching system. At 15Z our winds shift back from NNW to the SW resulting in warm air advection continuing into Friday evening and Saturday. Saturday's temperatures will be warmer because of this. The cold air advection returns Saturday night as the second cold front moves through, leaving behind clear skies on Sunday. SREF Plumes show hefty rainfall totals of 0.5 inches when all is said and done.