Friday, September 20, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Friday Night - Becoming Cloudy. Showers possible beginning after midnight. Windy. Low: 68-72



Saturday - Cloudy skies. Intermittent showers throughout the day. Windy. High: 78-82


 
Saturday Night - Cloudy. Showers ending in the evening. Windy. Low 70-74

 

Sunday - Cloudy. Rain beginning in the late morning hours. High: 72-76



Monday - Skies becoming clear. High: 72-76
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Discussion:
This weekend, if you like cooler temperatures, you will enjoy this Friday's night low of 68 to 72 degrees with the possibility of cloudy skies and showers.  Intermittent showers will persist through out this windy Saturday.  High probability of showers are given around noon of Sunday.  After the passage of a cold front, midnight on Sunday, we expect clearer skies and a high of 72-76 degrees on Monday. 

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Forecasters: Balkissoon, Heaven, Munley, Travis 
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 20,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
As the hot temperatures exit the region, the main issue for this forecast period is assessing the chances for precipitation throughout the weekend. Model disagreement was an unfortunate issue as WPC lowered forecast confidence as the NAM and CMC began to disagree with the GFS and Euro. Went with primarily GFS guidance with consult of SREF and GEFS for temperatures.

GOES East VIS satellite shows increasing cloudiness to the southwest of Columbia. These clouds will filter into the region as skies become overcast Friday night. This is all associated with a strong upper level disturbance. GFS 250-hPa heights and winds show the longwave trough over the western CONUS moving eastward breaking down the strong upper level ridge that has been stationary over the central US. Friday night into Saturday morning, Columbia will be sitting in the inflection point between the ridge to our east and trough to our west. GFS 500-hPa heights and vorticity favor an elongated area of circulation moving in from the southwest. Flow will remain out of the southwest in the lower levels of the atmosphere according to GFS 700 and 850 hPa. 700-hPa heights and RH show the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda breaking apart, with ample moisture transport into mid-Missouri following the southwesterly flow.

Saturday, 850-hPa heights and winds show a strong LLJ maximizing off to our west eventually bringing strong winds over Columbia. GFS soundings show a 20 kt wind beginning Saturday morning and persisting into Sunday night until FROPA. Expect gusty winds for the course of the weekend. Seeing as these string winds will be out of the southwest, there exists the potential for strong moisture advection and WAA. GFS Skew Ts want a dry small dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere. If partial clearing can occur, current estimates of daytime highs may be an underestimate. Temperatures will remain relatively steady until Sunday night despite likely rain. This is due to the WAA offsetting evaporational cooling by precipitation. Storm chances will be limited by the immense amount of moisture being brought in from Imelda remnants. Mean RH of the column is well above the 45% to 75% range suitable for severe convection. Partial clearing may also help to destabilize the atms for convection. Skew Ts do show ~600 J/kg  of CAPE Saturday morning, so thunderstorms are not completely out of the question.

Rain chances drop off after sunset Saturday evening. According to Skew Ts omega diminishes and the surface to ~600 hPa dries out. This dry time will not stick around for long as the entire column saturates with plenty of omega to support widespread precipitation. Rain will likely stick around until cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. GFS Skew T shows evidence of a classic cold FROPA occurring around 06z Monday. Winds shift from the S to NW and the column drys out significantly. SREF wants >10 F drop in dew points. This cold front will not make much progress in knocking down our temperatures as we will quickly be under the influence of a new upper level ridge according to GFS 500-hPa heights.


Thursday, September 19, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 66-70

 

Friday - Becoming mostly cloudy after noon. High: 84-88



 
Friday Night -Becoming cloudy after sunset. Showers beginning after midnight. Breezy. Low:68-72

 
Saturday - Cloudy. Showers continuing throughout the day. Breezy. High: 76-80
 

Sunday - Cloudy. Showers continuing. Breezy. High: 76-80
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Discussion:

Thursday night cloud cover will into the AOR becoming a scattered deck. This will transition into further cloud cover on Friday and overnight CIGS will lower and thicken into a broken/overcast layer. In the early AM hours, showers will begin dropping VIS, however will remain Cat D. In the Saturday morning hours precip will become more predominate, and up to 23mph. Sunday conditions will continue to persist.
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Forecasters: Owens, Travis 
Issued:  4:30 p.m. ; September 19,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This forecast was created using the 12z HRRR, the 15z SREF, 12z NAM/GFS Meteogram, 12z GFS MOS, 12z GFS SREF/GEFS Plumes, 19Z RAP Skew-T. With the unseasonably hot weather winding down, the main issue of this forecast period is assessing the chances for precip this weekend.

Upper level analysis is primarly showing a meridional pattern (T/R/T) in the 250mb level. 500/700mb is showing a S/W Trough (CA/NV) upstream of the AOR with MAA at the 700mb level. In addition to this the AOR is dominated by an area of High pressure, centered downstream of the station. This is continued to be reflected down on 850mb/SFC levels with a cold front reflected on the SFC. 

Over the course of Thursday night into Friday the primary influence over station will be the MAA in the mid-levels from Tropical Depression. While the Atmosphere continue to reflect a conditionally unstable environment, there is no strong trigger moving through the area to truly take advantage of this. There have been isolated pockets of convection, however this is a none issue over the station, as convective temperature is not expected to be reached. 

As Friday evening approaches the down stream cold front will move into the AOR. While this cold front is still expected to be weak, it will interact with the MAA that has been pushed into the AOR. While most of the current model run is in agreement that this will not be enough energy for convection, the most interesting numbers are 200J of CAPE. There will still be enough lift and moisture to provide showers through the remainder of the forecast period. 

In addition the this, there will also be strong southerly flow in the low levels. Whilst this will provide strong enough wind speeds to help with the needed lift, this will also combine with the tightening gradient, generated by the low to give 20kts of winds.
 



Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Thursday  - Partly Cloudy. pop-up t-storms possible.  High: 88-92

 

Thursday Night-  Partly Cloudy.   Low: 68-72
 
 


Friday -  Mostly sunny AM/ PM Rain possible.  High: 84-88
 
 
 
Friday Night- Rain possible.   Low: 68-72



Saturday - Cloudy skies with rain chances.  High: 78-82
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Discussion:
The hot weather will continue throughout today and the for rest of the work week. High pressure continues to sit over the Midwest. The ridge is bringing southerly winds which is bringing in those warmer temperatures. It will also feel muggy as well again along with those hot temperatures due to the winds from the south bringing in the warm tropical moisture from the south. However, after Friday night into Saturday morning, the temperatures will become more seasonal due to a cold front that will make its way into the area Saturday afternoon. This cold front will bring showers and some thunderstorms into the area for Saturday afternoon and evening.
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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Pauley, Munley 
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 19,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC indicates a use of EURO Ensembles and GEFS Ensembles, we are using the 12Z GFS and GEFS Ensembles for this forecast.

Clear conditions to begin Thursday as we are still under the influence of a upper level ridge that has been fairly slow moving to exit the forecast area.  Convection is ongoing up in Iowa due to a shortwave that is trying to roll through the ridge.  Pop up showers are possible for during the afternoon according to the 13Z HRRR due to surface based convection from the heating of the day but chances die off after sunset and give way to partly cloudy skies overnight.  Friday sunny skies turn into cloudy skies for the afternoon as upper level moisture is introduced into the column as WWA continues with southerly winds and tropical moisture is being transported from now remnants of Imelda. With all that moisture will bring high level clouds turning into mostly cloudy skies for Friday night.  Friday night scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible as the column does begin to saturate with a slightly unstable atmosphere but with little lift, it is expected to be more of a lighter rain.  Saturday brings a better chance of rain with tropical moisture continuing to be transported from remnants of Imelda as PWAT values are up near 1.70-2.00in.  700mb RH and omega line up better to give a chance for more widespread steady rain, a stray thunderstorm is not out of the question. Rain is expected for most of the day but also expected to subside around 00Z Sunday briefly then rain picks back up overnight Saturday into Sunday. 

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Isolated showers ending with sunset.  Low: 68-72

 

Thursday -  Partly Cloudy.  Isolated showers in the afternoon.  
High: 88-92
 

Thursday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Isolated showers ending with sunset.  
Low: 68-72
 
 
Friday - Mostly Cloudy with rain starting in the afternoon.  
High: 82-86
 


Saturday - Rain with storms in the evening.  High: 82-86
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Discussion:
Columbia will begin to see chances for pop up storms for the beginning half of the forecast period.  Looking around Columbia, one can see towering cumulus around the area, along with some of these showers starting to show up on radar.  Temperatures will stay high, as will humidity.  Thursday will also see the potential for pop up showers in the afternoon.  Any of these pop up storms will begin to fade as the sun goes down.  Temperatures will remain high through Thursday, with high temperatures in the low 90s to high 80s.  Friday looks to start off quiet, however rain is expected after noon.  Temperatures thus will not be able to get quite as high, however temperatures will still stay in the mid 80s.  Saturday will see even more rain, with a similar temperature to Friday. 
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Forecasters:  Heaven, Dowell
Issued:  4:20 p.m. ; September 18,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC indicates models are not in great agreement on Friday and Saturday, the current reccomendation is GEFS Ensembles; as such, 12Z GFS will be the preferred deterministic model, along with usage of the 15Z SREF, 18Z HRRR, and 12Z GEFS ensembles. 

Given current Satellite and radar images, along with 18Z HRRR guidance, pop up storms have been put into the main forecast; GOES East shows the Cu field over Missouri starting to agitate, along with these storms that are starting to rise showing up on radar.  These storms are still fairly few and far between, thus the isolated showers.  These pop up storms are also present for Thursday afternoon on the 18Z HRRR.  The HRRR is pointing towards low level convergence as the reason for these pop ups, along with the current high temperatures and dew points.  Friday will begin to see the breakdown of the ridge directly overhead, as the massive trough over the entire western United States begins to finally move east.  Soundings from the 12Z GFS show very little vertical motion, and a stratiform style of rain; there is little indication for convective precipitation, if any.  Rain is expected Friday afternoon into night, ending overnight for a short period before resuming again on Saturday.  12Z GFS indicates Saturday will see Columbia enter southwesterly flow as we begin to enter the trough.  GEFS Ensemble also show us beginning to enter the trough on Saturday.  Rain is expected most of the day Saturday. This rain will be very widespread, with soundings from Saturday evening indicating some sort of embedded convection.  700mb Omega also seems to line up with this, giving high omega values Saturday evening.  Storms are expected Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Low: 68-72

 

Wednesday-  Partly Cloudy.  High: 90-94
 


Wednesday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Low: 68-72
 
 
 
Thursday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 88-92
 


Friday - Mostly Cloudy with PM Rain Possible.  High: 82-86
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Discussion:
Mid Missouri will continue to remain unseasonably warm and humid over the next two days due to a persistent high pressure centered over the lower Midwest. Overnight lows will tend to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, while afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Partly cloudy skies will persist through Thursday night. This warm pattern should begin to erode on Friday, however, as a disturbance approaches from the west. This will cause high temperatures on Friday to be 5-10 degrees lower, with increasing clouds and rain possible by the afternoon hours.
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Forecasters: Vanderpoll, Lujan, Munley, Heaven
Issued:  4:30 p.m. ; September 17,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Once again this afternoon's forecast is a persistence forecast.  Challenges are really sky condition and temperatures. According to the WPC guidance is to work with the GFS and GEFS ensembles.

500mb driving winds are are very low, keeping the vertically stacked high meandering around the Missouri-Arkansas border. The ridge currently over us seems to be wanting to stick around, as GFS does not want to move it at all through at least Thursday. Southerly winds are dominating our forecast period continuing to usher in warm air in throughout the column. Wednesday upper level and mid-level moisture according to GFS 12Z forecast Skew Ts indicating a cirrus cloud day kind of like today and maybe a few diurnal cumulus for Wednesday and through Wednesday night.  Thursday sky conditions look to be partly cloudy and hot, and will be the case until the upper level ridge moves out from the area.  Friday the column wants to try to moisten up to give a good chance for cloudy skies and forecast soundings indicate a possibility for rain Friday evening but will defer timing to later shifts. Friday temperatures should drop to around 82-86 with the help of cloud cover building into the area and is something to look forward to rather these 90 degree days. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 Tuesday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 90-94

 

Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Low: 68-72
 


Wednesday -  Partly Cloudy.  High: 90-94
 
 
 
Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Low: 68-72
 
 
 
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 88-92
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Discussion:
This week will continue to see unseasonably warm temperatures and dew points.  Columbia is forecast to be quite muggy through Thursday, with dew points nearing 70 degrees.  Fair weather cumulus is expected in the forecast for most of the week.  High level cirrus may also show up at random periods throughout the week. 
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Forecasters:  Heaven
Issued:  9:30 a.m. ; September 17,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This forecast period is not going to see all too much change with model preferences, given the significant ridge overhead.  Any model will do, however GFS has been selected for this forecast period, with SREF for supplemental temperature forecasting. 

The ridge currently over us seems to be wanting to stick around, as GFS does not want to move it at all through at least Thursday.  Driving winds at ~500mb are very low, keeping the vertically stacked high meandering around the Missouri-Arkansas border.  The forecast period is to be dominated by fairly weak southerly winds, keeping moisture relatively high and temperature in the low 90s.  500mb Absolute Vorticity shows a few shortwaves trying to cross the ridge, however all of these that can hold themselves together stay off far to the north.  Troughs will continue to attempt to erode at this ridge, however no breakdown of the ridge is expected at all through Thursday.  All days of the forecast will experience fair weather cumulus, thus the partly cloudy forecast.  With this ridge dominating our forecast, and no shortwaves attempting to traverse the ridge near us, no precipitation is expected.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
Monday Night - Mostly Clear.  Low: 68-72
 
 

 Tuesday - Partly cloudy.  High: 90-94

 

Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Low: 66-70
 


Wednesday -  Partly Cloudy.  High: 90-94
 
 

Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 88-92
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Discussion:
We are dealing with much the same here in mid-Missouri. If you are not a lover of the warm weather, you are not going to enjoy this forecast. A large high pressure system parked over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas will keep our temperatures in the low to mid 90s with dew points near 70. Fair skies and ample sunshine with intermittent high level clouds will continue for the remainder of the work week.
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Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis
Issued:  4:30 p.m. ; September 16, 2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
With such a quiet period for the week ahead, the main issue of this forecast is the summertime heat sticking with mid-Missouri. As per WPC recommendation of a general model blend, went primarily with GFS guidance due to its coverage of the entire forecast period. Consulted SREF and GEFS for temperature guidance.

A classic late summer early fall like weather pattern has setup over the CONUS. RAP analysis loops depict a strong ridge at both 250 hPa and 500 hPa sitting over the central United States. To the west, a longwave trough attempts to chip away at the dominating ridge, but according to the analysis loops, it is not succeeding. Looking forward at the GFS for both 250 hPa and 500 hPa, the trough is not able to break down the ridge for the remainder of the forecast period. Prognostics of GFS 500-hPa heights and absolute vorticity show a series of minor shortwaves riding the ridge, but well off to our north in the Upper Midwest. Looking at 850-hPa heights and winds, flow will remain out of the WSW for the remainder of the week, continuing WAA and moisture advection. GFS Skew-Ts depict intermittent high and mid level saturation throughout the week. This will more than likely show itself as much of the same conditions mid-Missouri saw Monday: fair weather cumulus clouds and high level cirrus clouds. Evening cirrus clouds will help keep overnight lows in the low 70s (possibly higher).