Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72
Friday: Mostly cloudy with light rain throughout the day. High:65
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Discussion:
A rainy Stop Day is in store for Mizzou as rain begins Thursday night, lasting into Friday. Rain will lighten throughout the day on Friday with brief periods of sunshine to end the semester.
-Chirpich
Forecasters: Chirpich and Cook
Date Issued: 5/03/2023 5:00 PM CDT
The 12Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast as its forecast upper-level pattern for Wednesday closely matched satellite imagery and current upper-level water vapor flow patterns. The problem of the day for this forecast period is the rain Thursday night into Friday.
Upper-level maps show an omega block pattern with a low-pressure system over the Great Lakes region and a high-pressure system on its way into mid-Missouri. This high-pressure system will allow for an influx of moisture to be brought into the area due to return flow. As the high-pressure system moves into Missouri, a ridge will build in, putting the region in a meridional pattern. On Thursday at 15Z, divergence begins to pop up at 250MB. The highest divergence values will be seen on Friday from 03Z to 12Z, which is when the heaviest rain is expected. Vort maxes are seen Friday from 06Z to 21Z, provided the needed forcing for continuous rain throughout the day on Friday.
Cloud cover is expected to return on Thursday afternoon, as moisture builds in around 18Z at 700MB and doesn't leave the area until Friday at 21Z. Soundings support this increase in cloud cover and show that rain is expected to begin Thursday around midnight. Early Friday morning at 09Z, the column is fully saturated with increased omega in the upper-levels and plenty of downward motion at the surface. Due to the large amount of downward motion and the lack of severe weather indices, this system is expected to be rain only, no thunderstorms. The rain will be heaviest Thursday night and will lighten during the day on Friday. However, the light rain is expected to continue all day on Friday, allowing Missouri to pick up over 1" of rain for the entire passage of the system. The column will continue to desaturate into Saturday morning, leaving the weekend to start with a few isolated showers.
-Chirpich
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