Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 38
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45
Thursday: AM Sun. PM Clouds. High: 70
Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 55
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Discussion:
Sunny and dry conditions will continue until Thursday evening. Winds will be a lot calmer Wednesday and Thursday resulting in very nice days with plenty of sunshine. The next weather system will move in Thursday evening that should bring much needed and widespread rain to the area Thursday night and into Friday morning. Enjoy the nice spring weather!- Peine
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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smitty
Date Issued: 05/02/2023 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
The 18Z GFS model was utilized for this forecast due to a better handling on moisture transport Thursday night into Friday morning. The primary focus for this forecast period is the chance for some much needed rain Thursday evening into Friday.
At 250 mb, an upper-level low is currently over the Great Lakes region, keeping us under northwesterly flow with breezy conditions due to the tight pressure gradient. As we lose daytime mixing, winds will begin to lighten up overnight tonight to around 5-10 mph. High pressure will begin to move into the region and keep sky conditions clear, so this will result in efficient radiational cooling, causing low temperatures to be 10 degrees below average tonight (avg. low 51).
On Wednesday, high pressure will be overhead, keeping winds light out of the northwest at 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be able to climb into the low 70s with sunny conditions forecasted throughout the day. Wednesday night, the aforementioned high pressure will slide towards the Tennessee River Valley and allow for more of a southerly component with our winds. With light winds at the surface and mostly clear conditions, overnight lows should dip down into the mid- 40s.
For Thursday, high pressure will continue to move to the southeast and help draw cloud cover northward into our region. Even with the increasing cloud cover, temperatures should be near average (avg. high 72) Thursday afternoon due to southerly winds at 10-15 mph. A surface low will begin to develop across the central High Plains late Thursday afternoon and help bring some much needed rainfall to our area starting Thursday evening. With high pressure over the southeast CONUS, moisture will be advected into the region. However, the low-level jet will be rather weak across southwest Missouri, so we will not be dealing with any flooding concerns in central Missouri. Rain will continue to fall throughout the night on Thursday into Friday morning, yet there is low confidence in how much rain will fall Thursday night. Confidence is higher for heavier rain across southern Missouri as a weak stationary front will be draped across the region. As of now, central Missouri should see rainfall totals between 0.5”-0.75”, but this could change due to the spread in the models. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s due to plenty of cloud cover and rain that is forecasted.
Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the development of the low pressure system and the increasing confidence in warmer than average temperatures for the weekend. We hope that you enjoyed our forecasts this semester! Signing off for the last time…
-McCormack, Peine, Smitty
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