Friday, August 30, 2019

 
Friday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers ending in the evening. Low: 62-66

 
Saturday - Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible throughout the day. High: 72-76


 
Saturday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 64-68


 
 Sunday - Skies becoming mostly clear. High: 78-82


 
Monday - Mostly clear. High: 84-88


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Discussion:
Soggy weather will continue in Columbia for much of Friday, slowing down as the day progresses. For the most part, showers should be out of mid-Missouri by sundown with skies potentially clearing slightly overnight. Saturday, there remains a slight chance for lingering isolated showers. Our temperatures will remain slightly below average for this time of the year until this system exits the region Saturday night. The sun will return on Sunday and will allow us to warm up to near average. Monday we will see more summer-like temperatures just in time for Labor Fay Festivities.
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Forecasters: Travis
Issued:  2:30 p.m. ; 29 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

As the greatest chances for rain diminishes into Friday night, the main focus of this period is the issue of sky conditions during the day and to what extent diurnal heating will play in this weekend's temperatures. Went primarily with GFS and SREF as per WPC's recommendations of a non-NAM blend. 

The S/W that developed in northern KS yesterday has since moved into MO, pushing through the storms we saw just off to our west on Thursday night. RAP analysis loops place the vorticity maximum to the southwest of Columbia, over Clinton, MO. Prognostics of GFS 500-hPa heights and absolute vorticity show this S/W moving swiftly to the east by this evening. This will take with it, the chances for widespread precipitation, but lingering showers overnight, Friday night into Saturday, will not be out of the question. 

Saturday will see slim chances for isolated showers following the exit of the S/W and the approach of the next disturbance. The majority of the moisture and lift will be well to the region's east at this point hence the slim chance and isolated nature of the showers. Skies may even have a chance for partial clearing. If skies are able to clear, diurnal heating will play a role in daytime highs and therefore current thinking of 72-76 may turn out an under-prediction. If a thick deck of low clouds from 820 hPa to the sfc remains into Saturday (as is favored by both GFS and NAM Skew-Ts) temperatures will likely be right at the above range.

In its wake, the GFS resolves a much weaker S/W taking a very similar path from northern KS into MO, on Saturday night into Sunday. Due to the weaker intensity of the wave itself, and the lack of significant moister in the atmosphere, this wave will not bring any chances of precipitation into Sunday. In fact, Sunday we will see the sun return as GFS soundings dry out the column significantly. With the presence of ~1200 J/Kg of CAPE during the day Sunday, it is likely that diurnal heating will play a significant role in allowing our daytime temperatures to climb back to normal for this time of the year. Of course, with the absence of plentiful moisture as well as a dynamic setup, not forecasting anything in the way of thunderstorm activity, Sunday. 

Monday the flow at 850 hPa shifts southerly and advection will begin to aid the solar insolation in yet another temperature climb for Labor Day. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s, perfect summer weather for the holiday. 

Thursday, August 29, 2019




Thursday Night - Skies becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Low: 68-72



 
Friday - Cloudy. Showers continuing into the morning. Lingering afternoon thundershowers are possible. High: 76-80



Friday Night - Cloudy. Overnight showers likely. Low: 64-68




Saturday - Cloudy. Scattered showers possible in the afternoon. High: 82-86


 
Sunday - Partly cloudy skies. High: 84-88



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Discussion:
Unfortunately, once the sun goes down Thursday evening, mid-Missouri will likely not see it again for a few days. A dynamic weather maker will approach the region tonight and stick around until Saturday night. The lack of sun will keep our temperatures relatively mild (upper 70s). Showers and showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through after 10:pm. Columbia is under a severe thunderstorm watch. A few storms could produce some small hail and strong winds. Lingering showers will stick around into most of Friday with more thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. These storms, if they do occur, will likely not reach severe limits. Grey skies and rain chances continue into Saturday until partial sunshine is finally expected to return Sunday.
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Forecasters: Travis
Issued:  p.m. ; 29 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

 An active weather pattern is shaping up across the region. The NWS has placed Boone County under a severe thunderstorm watch until 11:00pm. Beyond the convection that is already developing north of the city, the chances for continued rainfall over much of the state for much of the forecast period looks to be the main issue for this forecast. For short term, used the HRRR, 12km and 3km NAM. As per WPC recommendations, went primarily with the GFS and SREF for extended guidance. 

As of 21:00 UTC severe warned storms have already begun to fire along the OFB of this morning's MCS over SE Iowa and extreme NE Missouri. The first of the two storms has begun to weaken slightly, but was supercellular in nature. The storm behind it near Kirksville appears to be taking on the characteristics of a supercell as well. SPC Mesoanalysis of CAPE and Eff. Bulk shear suggests that as the storms continue southeast, they will be moving into an stronger sheared environment with less CAPE to tap into. 

Moving ahead into tonight, according to simulated reflectivity, both the HRRR and NAM NEST want a loosely organized line of storms moving through Columbia in between 5:00 and 6:00 UTC. GFS time heights and RAP soundings are in consensus with precipitation beginning at this time. To our south, closer to Springfield the line becomes much more well organized. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds. Seeing as the WBZ height is above 10kft, according to GFS soundings for tonight, the threat for large hail remains low. GFS 500-hPa vorticityJust as the vorticity maxima that is driving this afternoon's convection, a new shortwave will develop in northern KS and move into MO overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will keep rain in our forecast for most of tomorrow and into tomorrow night. CAMs suggest much more isolated showers after 18:00 or 19:00 UTC. 
GFS 700-hPa RH and Omega suggests moisture will linger over the state for much of Saturday. Therefore the threat for showers continues into the day Saturday. Both GFS 700-hPa and soundings indicate a drying of the column; clouds should move out after Sunday mornings and temperatures will be on the increase.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019


 


Wednesday Night - Mostly Clear.  Low: 62-66



 
Thursday - Partly sunny. High: 82-86
 


Thursday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 68-72




Friday - Rain High: 76-80


 
 Saturday - Rain. High: 80-84



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Discussion:
A very nice day out today with the forecast area climbed into the low 80s today with plenty of sunshine to enjoy and light winds out of the west.  Tonight we drop down into the middle 60s tonight with clear skies persisting.  Thursday brings a sunny day with low to mid 80s for a high with a mix of xun and clouds but increasing cloudiness on through Thursday night and into Friday.  The next chance of rain around Mizzou looks to be on the day of Friday as well during the day Saturday.
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Forecasters: Heaven, Munley
Issued: 4:45 p.m. ; 28 August 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

 The forecast area has been under the influence of high pressure and will continue into Thursday.  Southerly winds return to the area introducing WAA and noticeable humidity values on the day Thursday as the high pressure system that was over the area Wednesday moves off to the Southeast, bringing slightly warmer temperatures back into the area being in the low to mid 80s.  Friday and Saturday are the days in question, depending on where a stationary front sets up will determine ho much rain the area sees as well as an impact of temperatures as well.  

A minor shortwave is expected to move in through the area Friday morning and with the unstable atmosphere, morning organized convection is possible.  A stationary front will eventually set up around the northern edge of Boone County, bringing steady rain with it.  GFS runs from the previous day had set the stationary front farther north, so its position may need to be adjusted for tomorrows forecast.  This stationary front will have fairly constant rainfall associated with it, and will head south of us Saturday night.  An inch of rain is expected from Friday through Saturday afternoon.  When the stationary front finally exits the area, high pressure will begin to settle in for the rest of Labor Day Weekend.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019


 


Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear.  Low: 58-62



 
Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 82-86
 
Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 62-66

 
 
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 84-88


 
 Friday - Rain. High: 80-84



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Discussion:
The first part of the forecast period will bring temperatures that are fairly low for August, with values in the low to mid 80s.  Humidity values will also remain low.  Clouds will start to build in on Wednesday night, keeping temperatures relatively high overnight.  The end of the week will see the return of a chance for rain, with rain possible during the day Friday. 
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Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Travis
Issued: 4:45 p.m. ; 27 August 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

 WPC Model Guidance prefers the GFS during the forecast period, with confidence being above average.  Temperatures are expected to climb throughout the week, as we recover into near normal temperatures.  GFS surface analysis shows a surface high tracking south through the upper Midwest, before heading east across Kansas and Missouri.  Winds will start out of the east, before switching to the south on Thursday as the high tracks past.  GFS soundings indicate that clouds should stay clear until Wednesday night, at which point we will start seeing moisture return over Missouri.  Given the clear skies and eventual shift of winds to the south, a warming trend is expected until Friday.  

Friday will see the return of chances for rain for Columbia, and with it the possibility of thunderstorms.  Current GFS guidance indicates a cold front draping through the Great Lakes to the Missouri-Iowa border on Friday morning.  This is expected to move south, at which point the cold front will collide with a warm front extending out of a surface low based in far western Kansas.  A stationary front will set up during the day on Friday across mid-Missouri.  Where this stationary front sets up exactly will impact how much rain we get, with GFS indicating total rainfall values of over an inch along the stationary front. 

Monday, August 26, 2019


 



Monday Night - Rain ending in the evening.  Low: 60-64



Tuesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 76-80

 
Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 56-60



 
Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 78-82



 
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 84-88



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Discussion:
After today's storms we will stay relatively cool, with another chance for rain in the afternoon to evening.  The middle part of the forecast period will remain clear, with humidity staying low.  Tuesday will see fairly low temperatures for August, with clear skies and a range of 76-80 for the high.  Tuesday night will see temperatures in the upper 50s.  Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday, with slightly higher temperatures.  Thursday will see the return of moisture, leading to higher humidity and more cloud cover.  The temperature will be in the mid 80s.
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Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Travis
Issued: 5:15 p.m. ; 26 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
The main focus of this forecast period is the issue of convection firing Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Due to the poor model handling of the system, disregarded Monday's CAMs. Went with GFS guidance for the remainder of the period as per WPC recommendations. 
What started as a promising day for severe weather has diminished due to the passage of the earlier MCS. GOES East VIS is showing a thick stratus shield lingering behind the system covering much of mid-Missouri. This will inhibit chances of recovery of instability along the WF. All of this is being fueled by a shortwave that has propagated into the Midwest and dumped rain on Columbia Sunday night. Without the support of neither an upper-level jet streak structure nor a strong LLJ, this system looks unimpressive dynamically speaking. Mesoanalysis does show convergence at the surface along and south of the WF boundary. Any convection that does have a chance to fire along this line of convergence will not reach severe criteria. Thermodynamically speaking, this system also looks unimpressive with RAP initial soundings showing low-level and mid-level lapse rates of about 7 C/km. The high res models are depicting strong recovery of the atmosphere as the NAM NEST simulated reflectivity shows a strong QLCS moving through Missouri later this evening. The HRRR is slightly less aggressive with its solution, but still overdoing the amount of instability available to be tapped into. Any chances of precipitation will move out of the region after sunset.
Looking forward into the rest of the period the GFS depicts northwest flow at all levels for the remainder of the period. This will keep our temperatures notably below Columbia's August average of 88 F for a high and 68 F as a low. Clear skies will allow for ample diurnal cooling during the nighttime. Columbia will see a gradual warming trend, each day being slightly warmer than the previous. Thursday, GFS soundings show a moistening of the column point to clouds moving back in. According to SREF and GEFS plumes, we will warm back up to near average temperatures for this time of the year.