Monday, August 26, 2019


Monday Night - Rain ending in the evening.  Low: 60-64

Tuesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 76-80

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 56-60

Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 78-82

Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 84-88

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After today's storms we will stay relatively cool, with another chance for rain in the afternoon to evening.  The middle part of the forecast period will remain clear, with humidity staying low.  Tuesday will see fairly low temperatures for August, with clear skies and a range of 76-80 for the high.  Tuesday night will see temperatures in the upper 50s.  Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday, with slightly higher temperatures.  Thursday will see the return of moisture, leading to higher humidity and more cloud cover.  The temperature will be in the mid 80s.
Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Travis
Issued: 5:15 p.m. ; 26 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
The main focus of this forecast period is the issue of convection firing Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Due to the poor model handling of the system, disregarded Monday's CAMs. Went with GFS guidance for the remainder of the period as per WPC recommendations. 
What started as a promising day for severe weather has diminished due to the passage of the earlier MCS. GOES East VIS is showing a thick stratus shield lingering behind the system covering much of mid-Missouri. This will inhibit chances of recovery of instability along the WF. All of this is being fueled by a shortwave that has propagated into the Midwest and dumped rain on Columbia Sunday night. Without the support of neither an upper-level jet streak structure nor a strong LLJ, this system looks unimpressive dynamically speaking. Mesoanalysis does show convergence at the surface along and south of the WF boundary. Any convection that does have a chance to fire along this line of convergence will not reach severe criteria. Thermodynamically speaking, this system also looks unimpressive with RAP initial soundings showing low-level and mid-level lapse rates of about 7 C/km. The high res models are depicting strong recovery of the atmosphere as the NAM NEST simulated reflectivity shows a strong QLCS moving through Missouri later this evening. The HRRR is slightly less aggressive with its solution, but still overdoing the amount of instability available to be tapped into. Any chances of precipitation will move out of the region after sunset.
Looking forward into the rest of the period the GFS depicts northwest flow at all levels for the remainder of the period. This will keep our temperatures notably below Columbia's August average of 88 F for a high and 68 F as a low. Clear skies will allow for ample diurnal cooling during the nighttime. Columbia will see a gradual warming trend, each day being slightly warmer than the previous. Thursday, GFS soundings show a moistening of the column point to clouds moving back in. According to SREF and GEFS plumes, we will warm back up to near average temperatures for this time of the year.

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