Friday, September 28, 2018




Friday Night -  Mostly cloudy with light rain developing late.  Low:  48-52.


Saturday - Rain and drizzle ending by noon, otherwise mostly cloudy. High: 67-71.


Saturday Night - Partly cloudy.  Low: 54-58.


Sunday - Partly sunny. High: 78-82.

Monday - Mix of sun and clouds. High: near 82.
  
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Discussion:
It appears as though conditions through early Saturday afternoon will be mainly cloudy, with a chance of drizzle/light rain from roughly sunrise to lunchtime Saturday. Clearing and a resulting warm-up can be expected Saturday afternoon. Sky conditions will remain variably cloudy accompanied by seasonably warm temperatures through the remainder of the period.

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Forecaster:  Travis, Ritter, Johnston, Market, and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m., September 28, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
At the start of the forecast period, the cold front has moved the area. This has put us into the cold sector for the night. Moisture behind the front continues to build in overnight as clouds develop. By 03 UTC, the column has become saturated from the surface to 3 km up. This coupled with vertical amount at this level gives confidence that there is chance for drizzle and light rain early Saturday morning. Not much liquid is expected to fall, just enough to lightly moisten the ground as models show 0.05" falling. Models depict rain ending by 18 UTC by clouds and low level moisture remains for the day. The cold front that moved through Friday night modifies and becomes a warm front that then pushes north through KCOU. Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal as upper 70s to the lower 80s look possible. This front remains well to our north into Monday as warmer temperature persist.

Thursday, September 27, 2018


Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low: 48-52.



 
Friday - Clear skies into Friday Night. High: 67-71.



 

Friday Night -  Chances of showers.  Low:  48-52.



Saturday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 67-71.

Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Low: 54-58




Sunday- Partly Sunny. High: 78-82
  
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion:
Cold front expected to move through Friday evening into Saturday morning bringing chances of rain during overnight hours. Once passed, clouds will continue to stick around into Sunday morning ridding the cold front and bringing back warmer weather into the rest of the weekend.

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Forecaster: Doll,Myers, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:02 p.m., September 27, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 Cooler temperatures, sunny skies and reduced moisture in the atmosphere will be the theme for the next few days. Friday we see and increase in moisture with humidity values returning to around 80%, there is also an increase in PWAT's from around 0.5in to 1in. There is the possibility of a weak cold front making its way through the area possibly Friday night, Saturday morning bringing the next chance for precipitation.  As we move through Saturday afternoon a high pressure system makes its way into the area. This will provide warmer temperatures and partly sunny skies for Sunday.

Wednesday, September 26, 2018


Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low: 46-50.
 



 
Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 67-71.

 

 
Thursday night -  Mainly clear.  Low:  48-52.


 

Friday - Mostly sunny. High: 67-71.



 
 Saturday - Possible Morning showers.  High:  64-68.

  
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
The cold front has passed with drier and cooler conditions.  There will be partly cloudy skies this evening and clearing out into the morning with a overnight low of about mid to upper 40s.  Pleasant and sunny skies for Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Thursday night looks nice with a low in the upper 40s, low 50s and mainly clear sky conditions.

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Forecaster: Munley, Sumrall, Market, Bongard, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:22 p.m., September 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
With the passage of the cold front, more fall like conditions have settled over Missouri. A trough like pattern in the upper levels persists through Friday but will have little affect on the weather. Cooler temperatures, sunny skies and reduced moisture in the atmosphere will be the theme for the next few days. Strong cold air advection will contribute to lows Wednesday night in the mid 40's. Friday we see and increase in moisture with humidity values returning to around 80%, there is also an increase in PWAT's from around 0.5in to 1in. There is the possibility of another cold front making its way through the area possibly Friday night, Saturday morning bringing the next chance for precipitation.  

Tuesday, September 25, 2018



Tonight - Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the early evening. Low: 50-54.
 



 
Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 66-70.

 

 
Wednesday night -  Mainly clear.  Low:  43-47.


 

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 70-74.


 
 Friday - Mostly sunny.  High:  Near 75.

  
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion:
The cold front is passing through tonight bringing colder temperatures compared to what we have recently seen. For Wednesday and Thursday the front pushes out of the area to the southeast and we can expect mostly sunny skies with cooler temperature in the upper 60's. Overnight Wednesday temperature will be in the middle to upper 40's.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:35 p.m., September 25, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Frontal passage and the chance for convection are the main headlines of this forecast shift. Current regional radar imagery shows the well defined cold front currently pushing through the Kansas City metro area. Missouri Mesonet data is showing temperature drops on the order of 10-20 degrees with FROPA. Convection has struggled to initate across the area thus far this afternoon with only subtle forcing ahead of the front. Convection chances should end with the passage of the front.  Cold air advection will continue throughout the day Wednesday and Thursday and will lead to more near average high temperatures. The coldest night of the forecast period should be overnight Wendesday into Thursday, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s amid clearing skies and strong cold air advection. Uncertainty arrives on Friday in the form of the timing of another cold frontal passage. Models differ on timing, and will defer to later shifts in regards to impacts on the high temperature for the day as well as potential precipitation. 

Monday, September 24, 2018


Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Low: 65-69.
 

  
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms. High: 78-82.


 

Tuesday night - Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the early evening. Low: 50-54.


 
Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66.


 
Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 68-72.
  
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion:
A cold front moves in Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. After the front moves through temperatures will be much cooler for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Skies will clear up by Wednesday morning and remain sunny through Thursday, bringing fall like temperatures.

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Forecaster: Danaher, Johnston, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., September 24, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Frontal passage and the chance for convection are the main headlines of this forecast shift. FROPA on Tuesday should hold off until the late evening with generally good agreement between models in regards to this timing. Warm air advection will continue throughout the day Tuesday and will lead to above normal high temperatures. Best forcing for ascent appears to stay north of the area across Northeastern Missouri and Western Illinois, closer to the parent low. Regardless, if convection can initaiate along the boundary further south, a primarily linear storm mode should dominate with a unidirectional wind profile. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat in the strongest storms. QPFs are generally light across the area, mostly owning to the displacement of the best forcing. After the cold front passes, expect a drying trend into Wednesday and Thursday with clearing skies expected. Temperatures will be closer to average with a general warming trend towards the end of the forecast period.


Monday - Cloudy. High: 78-82.
 

 
Monday night - Cloudy. Low: 65-69.

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms. High: 78-82.


 
Tuesday night - Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the early evening. Low: 50-54.


Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66.
  
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion:
Moisture at the surface will keep us cloudy for the next few days with comfortable, seasonal temperatures. A cold front moves in Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler for Wednesday. Skies will clear up by Wednesday morning.

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Forecaster: Carlson, Scroggins and Hirsch
Issued: 9:30 a.m., September 24, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Another cold front currently to our west is making its way toward MIssouri, and current model solutions agree that it will sweep through the area tomorrow afternoon.  Timing looks good for convection in the afternoon, with CAPE and effective shear values suggesting the possibility of  convection that may approach severe limits over mid-Missouri, although the wind profile points toward line-type convection.  This conclusion is supported by the latest GFS and NAM soundings as well as the SREF plumes for COU.  More consistent northwesterly flow settles in to the area for the rest of the week, returning us to more fall-like temperatures.

Friday, September 21, 2018






Friday Night - Mostly cloudy  Low:  56-60.
  


Saturday - Gradually clearing skies.  High: 70-74.

 

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 50-54




Sunday - Mostly sunny skies. High:74-78



 
Monday - Increasing clouds, chance afternoon showers. High: 78-82  





Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion: Cooler air has finally arrived in the mid-Missouri area.  A cold front passed through central Missouri around dawn, bringing with it some cloudiness and a few showers.  Only 0.06" of rain was recorded at Sanborn Field, so we got just enough to wet the ground, but not enough to help relieve the mild drought conditions that still persist.  Still, cooler weather has arrived, so turn off the AC, open the windows, and enjoy the first days of fall.

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Forecaster:  Doll, Myers, Travis, Ritter, Market, and Hirsch
Issued:  4:13 p.m., September 21, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The remnants of FROPA continue to impact our weather for the foreseeable future. Clouds have persisted throughout the day and should persist overnight. Northwest flow as taken over and cold air will be filtering in bringing overnight lows near normal for this time of year. A high moves to the west of the area putting us at the surface in a northerly flow with winds, helping to limit temperatures for Saturday. This coupled with the fact that frontal passage occurred today means these are the coldest temps. The remainder of the week looks pleasant as warm back up again as the high shifts to the west and we get in a southerly flow. Aloft however, 850mb, the winds remain from the east stifling warmth. The next weather system looks to approach on Monday. There appears to be moisture but the front looks a bit weak now. This bears watching on Monday as SPC highlights a 15% region just to our north. The timing looks to be later in the evening. Have erred on side of showers for now.

Thursday, September 20, 2018





Tonight - Becoming mostly cloudy, with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder overnight.  Low:  66-70.



Friday - Mostly cloudy. High: 74-78.



Friday Night - Mostly cloudy  Low:  56-60.
 

Saturday - Gradually clearing skies.  High:  near 70.

Sunday- Mostly sunny skies. High: 71-75





Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion: The much anticipated cold front is finally beginning to make its way toward mid-Missouri, and should arrive in the area right after dawn on Friday.  Instead of the widely scattered showers and thunderstorms that have pestered the area the last few days, a more organized system will sweep through the Columbia area.  We can expect rain and showers for the morning commute through lunch time, and then conditions should begin to improve.  Much cooler temperatures will settle in for the duration of the weekend.
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Forecaster:  Sumrall, Hirsch, Johnston and Market
Issued:  4:12 p.m., September 20, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
As the low pressure system moves off to the northeast it will strengthen as it goes. The cold front will move through Missouri late Friday morning. As the low pressure system continues to strengthen there are enhanced levels of vorticity associated with it. This will not impact Missouri's weather as much as it will those to the north and closer to the center of that low pressure system. As the trough moves out, it leaves behind a ridge pattern that will bring more fall like weather conditions. There is an initial drying of the atmosphere as the front passes, but we will see an increase in moisture as conditions settle into the high pressure mode. Moderate temperatures will be the theme for Saturday and Sunday with highs only reaching the mid 70's and lows down to the 50's. Saturday we will see decreasing cloud cover as we move into the afternoon hours.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018





Tonight - Mainly clear.  Low: 68-72.



Thursday - Mix of sun and clouds . High:  90-94.


Thursday Night -  Becoming mostly cloudy, with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder overnight.  Low:  66-70.
 

Friday - Mostly cloudy. High: near 80.


Saturday - Gradually clearing skies.  High:  near 70.





Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

http://weather.missouri.edu/radar/BR.jpg 

Discussion: Thursday will look very similar to today, but changes are coming late Thursday night into Friday.  Currently, there is a stationary front stalled to our north over the Missouri-Iowa border.  An upper level disturbance now over the Rocky Mountains will make its way into the region late tomorrow night and encourage the front to get moving and push southward as a cold front.  This new activity will bring the threat for rain Thursday night into Friday.  Much cooler temperatures will result for the weekend.
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Forecaster:  Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch, and Market
Issued:  4:55 p.m., September 19, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
There is a quasi-stationary front that is in northern Missouri, Iowa border. A strong trough out to the west will be responsible for moving this cold front to the south, but not until Friday morning. PWAT's decrease slightly from 2in Wednesday to 1.5in on Thursday. As the front moves through friday our PWAT values will drop to less than 0.5in. Instability increases during the afternoon hours on both Wednesday and Thursday due to diurnal heating. Ample amounts of moisture paired with slight vorticity and instability will provide a chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon. As the cold front moves through Friday we will see a significant decrease in temperatures with high's only reaching into the upper 70's.