Monday, September 17, 2018

Tonight - Mainly clear skies.  Low: 66-70.

Tuesday - Partly cloudy with isolated afternoon showers. High: 88-92.

Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Low: 68-72.

Wednesday -  Partly cloudy. High:  90-94.

Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 68-72.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Hazy, humid August-like weather will persist for the start of the week. Tomorrow afternoon an isolated shower may occur with low amounts of rainfall. A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes currently extends southwest into Missouri. This arrangement will keep the remnants of Hurricane Florence to our south and east. Meanwhile, a new low pressure system will take shape to our west over the next few days. This morning's ridge will slowly break down as the week progresses and warm, southerly flow will filter back into the area. Relief from the summer-like temperatures can be expected as we get closer to the weekend. 
Forecaster:  Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Market, and Hirsch
Issued:  5:02 p.m., September 17, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Above average temperatures and the potential for isolated showers during the day Tuesday are the primary concerns with the forecast period. NAM and GFS model guidance have come into better agreement with regards to precipiation Tuesday afternoon and evening, with both models indicating light QPF across the forecast area. These showers are most likely driven by warm air advection and the proximity of a shortwave passing just to the north of the area. Precipitation totals should be light, as QPFs are generally 0.1" or lower for the entire forecast period, with most SREF members indicating less than 0.05" of total precipitation. Will defer to later shifts for higher confidence precipitation chances. Regardless of precipiation activity, above average temperatures are likely with strong warm air advection ahead of a cold front currently aross the Northern Plains. H85 temperatures above 20° C and strong mixing should lead to surface temperatures well into the 90s over the next few days. With surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will be on the rise as well. 

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