Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Tonight - Mainly clear.  Low: 68-72.

Thursday - Mix of sun and clouds . High:  90-94.

Thursday Night -  Becoming mostly cloudy, with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder overnight.  Low:  66-70.

Friday - Mostly cloudy. High: near 80.

Saturday - Gradually clearing skies.  High:  near 70.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Thursday will look very similar to today, but changes are coming late Thursday night into Friday.  Currently, there is a stationary front stalled to our north over the Missouri-Iowa border.  An upper level disturbance now over the Rocky Mountains will make its way into the region late tomorrow night and encourage the front to get moving and push southward as a cold front.  This new activity will bring the threat for rain Thursday night into Friday.  Much cooler temperatures will result for the weekend.
Forecaster:  Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch, and Market
Issued:  4:55 p.m., September 19, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
There is a quasi-stationary front that is in northern Missouri, Iowa border. A strong trough out to the west will be responsible for moving this cold front to the south, but not until Friday morning. PWAT's decrease slightly from 2in Wednesday to 1.5in on Thursday. As the front moves through friday our PWAT values will drop to less than 0.5in. Instability increases during the afternoon hours on both Wednesday and Thursday due to diurnal heating. Ample amounts of moisture paired with slight vorticity and instability will provide a chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon. As the cold front moves through Friday we will see a significant decrease in temperatures with high's only reaching into the upper 70's.

No comments:

Post a Comment