Monday, December 10, 2018



The MU Campus Weather Forecast is on holiday break, and will not be forecasting from 12/10/2018 to 1/21/2019. 

Thanks to all of you who have visited this page over the last few months (at about 1,000 views per month!)


Thanks also to these dedicated students who made the CWF a reality and a success!

Left to right:  Griffen McAfee-Myers, Evan Travis, Caleb Brown, Sam Ritter, Adam Hirsch, Colby Scroggins, Sean Munley, Alex Johnston, Lucy Doll, Kasey Carlson, Sean Danaher, Jehnna Azzara, Katherine Rojas Murillo, Jon Bongard, and Paula Sumrall.  (Not pictured:  Matt Hefner.)

We will return for Spring 2019!

Friday, December 7, 2018






Friday night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26



Saturday - Cloudy. High: 30-34



Saturday night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 18-22.


 
Sunday - Increasing cloudiness during the afternoon. High: 32-36

 

Monday - Becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. High: 30-34.
 


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!




Discussion: 
A strong high pressure system will govern our weather for much of the period. In its wake, we will see tranquil, albeit much cooler than normal weather during this period. As a storm system passes to our south tonight into tomorrow, we will a thick layer of high clouds, but now precipitation is forecast. Another system will move west of our area Sunday night into Monday, producing more high-level cloudiness. Overall, daytime highs will vary only slightly from day to day.


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Forecasters: Travis, Ritter, and Hirsch
Issued: 3:06 p.m., December 7, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
A seemingly quiet weekend ensues over mid-Missouri for much of the forecast period. A big anticyclone is parked over much of the Midwest. Mid-Missouri will remain in the center of the air mass until early next week. Sky conditions and temperatures will remain relatively constant for the forecast period. GFS 700 hPa RH predicts drying out Friday night and remaining very dry for the rest of the weekend. This does not mean clear skies, however, as GFS Skew-T's show persisent saturation with respect to ice in between 500-300 hPa. Over the course of the forecast period, high clouds will thin out during the day letting some sunshine in. Skew-T's for Sunday indicate enough clouds clearning to let our temperatures rise just a few degrees. GFS 500 hPa vorticity shows a clipper coming down from Alberta late Sunday into early Monday. This system will knock temperatures back to the persistent highs seen thus far.

Thursday, December 6, 2018






Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 18-22.



Friday - Cloudy. High: 35-39.


 
Friday night - Cloudy. Low: 19-23.


Saturday- Cloudy. High: 35-39.

Sunday-   Partly Cloudy. High: 36-40.
 


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Discussion: 
Conditions will remain pretty constant throughout the course of the weekend. Tonight, we will see a suspense of precipitation seen earlier today with clouds remaining overnight. Tomorrow the clouds will stick around for the course of the day with cold air keeping temperatures below average. Saturday clouds will remain in the area with calm conditions at ground level. Sunday clouds will stick around through the morning through mid afternoon but will begin to dry out through the night breaking up clouds and giving more sunny conditions going into Monday. 
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Forecasters: Doll, Myers, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 3:47 p.m., December 6, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
A high pressure system will be responsible for cold air advection is keeping conditions consistent through the entirety of the weekend. With air coming from the north to northeast, we will continue to see temperatures below freezing through tonight and tomorrow. The 300-500mb level will be saturated tomorrow morning to mid afternoon which will keep clouds around. Eventually the saturation continues into the mid-lower atmosphere at 600 mb later Friday night, until this saturation disappears and the 300mb level begins the process all over again. The 300mb-500mb levels will remain saturated from late Friday night through late Sunday afternoon keeping clouds around for the weekend. The 700 mb level will be extremely dry throughout Sunday keeping the possibility of precipitation non-existent. Temps will remain below freezing during this saturation and drying out through Sunday.    

Wednesday, December 5, 2018






Tonight - Clouds increasing over night. Low: 29-33.

 Thursday - Chance of snow in the morning, remains cloudy.
  High: 32-36.



 
Thursday night - Partly cloudy. Low: 16-20.

 

Friday- Partly sunny. High: 33-36.

Saturday-   Cloudy. High: 28-32.
 


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Discussion: Sunshine was short lived as clouds move back into the area this evening.  A cold front moves into the area around 2am Thursday morning. The passage of the cold front will bring a chance of snow tonight lasting through tomorrow morning and ending around noon with around a half an inch of accumulation expected.  Clouds will stick around tomorrow with some clearing out as a high pressure enters our area Thursday night and into Friday leading to some peaks of sun during the day Friday.  The high will linger long enough to keep  chances of precipitation off to our south for Saturday.


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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 3:58 p.m., December 5, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

We saw some sunshine today and that allowed us to warm up enough to melt off any residual snow from yesterday. We have not seen any type of precipitation today and that will hold off since we have a large dry layer between 700-850 mb. Once we overcome that we can quickly expect some snow in the overnight hours as a cold front approaches. That will be due to a good amount of lift and a short wave that will make its way towards the forecasting area. Snow chances continue during the day tomorrow but should clear out after lunchtime since our moisture will dry out, the front will have passed and the lift will not be able to support precipitation. Once the snow exits the region we will remain dry and cloudy. We can expect to see around a half an inch of accumulation. The rest of the work week will be very similar to each other as we will be under a high pressure zone. Clouds will be present and high temperatures will stick around the freezing mark so the snow that we get from the Thursday system will likely stick around until the weekend. Addressing the possible winter storm over the weekend, the GFS still has the track on the low pressure system to our south in northern Arkansas. Further monitoring of the system will be necessary as the slightest change in the path of the low could substantially impact the weather in mid-Missouri.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018






Tonight - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 22-26.

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny.
High: 40-44.



Wednesday night - Cloudy. Low: 28-32.

Thursday- Cloudy with light snow in the morning. High: 30-34.

Friday-  Mostly Cloudy. High: 26-30.
 


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Discussion: Expect cool temperatures, overcast conditions, and light flurries to persist tonight. Wednesday will offer a brief break from our recent chilly conditions as high temperatures reach into the low 40's. A cold front will travel across Mid-Missouri Thursday morning returning cool air and light morning snow with less than an inch of accumulation expected.


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Forecasters: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:30 p.m., December 4, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

With slightly above average confidence, GFS was used for this forecast. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow across the CONUS with the core of the jet streak located over the Mississippi valley. Though a ribbon of vorticity propagates west to east at 500 mb, there are no chances of precipitation on Wednesday.
Tonight, around midnight time height cross section analysis indicates upper motion (-3 mb/s) with high relative humidity which suggests flurries, that is what GFS and NAM solution indicates.
Maximum temperatures for tomorrow will increase, reaching the 40's promoted by a change in the wind direction from W to SW which will lead to warm air advection. Condition become more interesting Thursday morning, as the cold front approaches to the area associated with some mid-level vorticity, higher values of omega and a saturated air column aloft. This will bring a risk of snow showers that will last until Thursday around noon. After that, temperature will struggle to reach the freezing mark to end the week.

Monday, December 3, 2018





Tonight - Overcast skies remain. Low 24-28. 


 
Tuesday - Overcast skies. High: 30-34.


 
Tuesday night - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 24-28.



Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny. High: 40-44. 



Thursday- Cloudy with a brief light snow shower. High: 30-34.
 


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Discussion: We will have overcast skies until clouds move out Wednesday morning. Sunshine will heat us up for Wednesday, bringing us closer to average for this time of year. Cold air returns on Thursday with a cold front that will move through our area during the afternoon. This will bring us a chance of a brief light snow shower with little accumulation expected.


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Forecasters: Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:15 p.m., December 3, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

Went with a blend of NAM, GFS, and EURO for this forecast package. The NAM appeared to have a good handle on current jet positions while the GFS seemed to displace it further south. Currently a high pressure system to our west will help keep us dry, but moisture hanging around near the surface will keep us overcast for the next couple of days. The column is mostly dry above 800mb with little to no vertical motion aloft. We could see flurries Tuesday morning due to this layer of moist air, but chances are slim given that this moist layer is very shallow. For the rest of this week we will stay just to the north of the upper-level jet and keep northerly flow that will continue to reinforce the cold air and lead to below average temperatures. Cloud-cover and the lack of diurnal heating will help to contribute to those cold temperatures as well. A small chance of light snow will occur Thursday morning into the afternoon. Soundings from the NAM and GFS have shown that winds will shift from veering to backing only for a short period of time. It also becomes particularly evident that the vertical column will be cold enough to support snow as the dominant precipitation type. Forcing for ascent will help to promote this snow chance as well. The NAM claims that about 0.20 inches will fall and the GFS says 0.17 inches. Future forecast periods should be aware of the potential snowfall.


 
Monday - Overcast skies. High: 32-36.



Monday night - Overcast skies remain. Low 24-28. 
 


Tuesday - Overcast skies. High: 30-34.
 


Tuesday night - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 24-28.

 

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny. High: 42-46. 

 


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Discussion: Dry upper-level conditions and a high pressure system to our west will keep us free of precipitation over the next few days, but we will have overcast skies until clouds move out Wednesday morning. Sunshine will heat us up for Wednesday, bringing us closer to average for this time of year.


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Forecasters: Carlson, Scroggins, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 9:30 a.m., December 3, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)A high pressure system to our west will help keep us dry, but moisture hanging around near the surface will keep us overcast for the next couple of days. We are mostly dry above 800mb with no vertical motion in the atmosphere. We could see an isolated snow shower Tuesday morning due to this layer of moist air, but chances are slim given that its pretty weak. For the rest of this week we will stay just to the north of the upper-level jet and keep a northerly flow that will continue to contribute to our unseasonably cold temperatures. Cloud-cover and the lack of heating at the surface will help to contribute to those cold temperatures as well.