Monday, December 3, 2018

Tonight - Overcast skies remain. Low 24-28. 

Tuesday - Overcast skies. High: 30-34.

Tuesday night - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 24-28.

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny. High: 40-44. 

Thursday- Cloudy with a brief light snow shower. High: 30-34.

Thanks to for the icons!

Discussion: We will have overcast skies until clouds move out Wednesday morning. Sunshine will heat us up for Wednesday, bringing us closer to average for this time of year. Cold air returns on Thursday with a cold front that will move through our area during the afternoon. This will bring us a chance of a brief light snow shower with little accumulation expected.

Forecasters: Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:15 p.m., December 3, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

Went with a blend of NAM, GFS, and EURO for this forecast package. The NAM appeared to have a good handle on current jet positions while the GFS seemed to displace it further south. Currently a high pressure system to our west will help keep us dry, but moisture hanging around near the surface will keep us overcast for the next couple of days. The column is mostly dry above 800mb with little to no vertical motion aloft. We could see flurries Tuesday morning due to this layer of moist air, but chances are slim given that this moist layer is very shallow. For the rest of this week we will stay just to the north of the upper-level jet and keep northerly flow that will continue to reinforce the cold air and lead to below average temperatures. Cloud-cover and the lack of diurnal heating will help to contribute to those cold temperatures as well. A small chance of light snow will occur Thursday morning into the afternoon. Soundings from the NAM and GFS have shown that winds will shift from veering to backing only for a short period of time. It also becomes particularly evident that the vertical column will be cold enough to support snow as the dominant precipitation type. Forcing for ascent will help to promote this snow chance as well. The NAM claims that about 0.20 inches will fall and the GFS says 0.17 inches. Future forecast periods should be aware of the potential snowfall.

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