Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Tonight - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 22-26.

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny.
High: 40-44.

Wednesday night - Cloudy. Low: 28-32.

Thursday- Cloudy with light snow in the morning. High: 30-34.

Friday-  Mostly Cloudy. High: 26-30.

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Discussion: Expect cool temperatures, overcast conditions, and light flurries to persist tonight. Wednesday will offer a brief break from our recent chilly conditions as high temperatures reach into the low 40's. A cold front will travel across Mid-Missouri Thursday morning returning cool air and light morning snow with less than an inch of accumulation expected.

Forecasters: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:30 p.m., December 4, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

With slightly above average confidence, GFS was used for this forecast. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow across the CONUS with the core of the jet streak located over the Mississippi valley. Though a ribbon of vorticity propagates west to east at 500 mb, there are no chances of precipitation on Wednesday.
Tonight, around midnight time height cross section analysis indicates upper motion (-3 mb/s) with high relative humidity which suggests flurries, that is what GFS and NAM solution indicates.
Maximum temperatures for tomorrow will increase, reaching the 40's promoted by a change in the wind direction from W to SW which will lead to warm air advection. Condition become more interesting Thursday morning, as the cold front approaches to the area associated with some mid-level vorticity, higher values of omega and a saturated air column aloft. This will bring a risk of snow showers that will last until Thursday around noon. After that, temperature will struggle to reach the freezing mark to end the week.

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