Tuesday, October 22, 2019

  


Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy. Low: 39-43
 


Wednesday - Partly Sunny. High: 64-68


 
 Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45
 


Thursday - Overcast. Showers Possible. High: 46-50



Friday - Clouds Early, Clearing Out Afternoon. High: 52-56

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Discussion: 
Dry conditions are in the forecast for the next 24 hours. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies to transition to partly cloudy as the night wears on. Lows should bottom out in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Tomorrow, south winds will help to warm things up again, with mid to upper 60s likely under partly sunny skies. Tomorrow night into Thursday, our next weather disturbance will arrive. A cold front will drop temperatures Thursday morning into the low 40s, with overcast skies and rain showers keeping highs for Thursday likely remaining below 50. Friday, we should see clouds and rain move out, with sunny skies and chilly conditions by the afternoon. 
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Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 22,  2019



Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC model diagnostics indicates a preference for general model blend, with above-average confidence. We will be using the 12z GFS for the majority of this forecast, with consideration also being given to the 12z/18z NAM 12km and the SREF.

Overall, it's a pretty active setup over the CONUS. A powerful, well-occluded surface low was situated over Lake Superior at 18z. This low was located within a very large 500mb trough that extended into the central CONUS. A 500mb jet max was noted over eastern Indiana and NW Ohio in association with that trough, helping to support an east-moving cold front running roughly along the eastern foothills of the Appalachian Mountains.This trough and accompanying surface low will continue to swing eastward with time, setting the stage for a fairly uneventful night in mid-Missouri.

Tomorrow, WAA returns, with GFS model-generated soundings indicating the majority of this WAA in the sfc-700mb layer. Thus, although we will warm up quite a bit tomorrow (mid to upper 60s, with some places possibly seeing 70), the warm-up will not be too spectacular. Also, both GFS and NAM indicate moisture present near the 850mb level, which should help to create some clouds throughout the day.

Wednesday night, another longwave trough swings into the Midwest, driving a powerful cold front down through Missouri. Temperatures with the fropa will drop as low-level CAA kicks in on its backside, thus lows Thursday morning will bottom out in the lower to middle 40s. The sfc front continues south through the day Thursday, but moisture advection at the 700mb layer and above will really help to saturate the atmosphere. This keeps Mid-Missouri in solid overcast throughout the day. Thursday night into Friday, a disturbance (as evidenced by 500mb and 700mb vorticity) reaches the base of the trough over mid and southern MO and provides lift to the saturated atmosphere. This gives us a good chance for some cold rain throughout the overnight hours. Clouds and rain for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night will keep temperatures down, with highs Thursday likely not breaking out of the 40s.

For Friday, upper-level winds finally switch around to the NW as the 700mb and 500mb trough axes progress east. This leads to a rapid scouring out of moisture by mid-day, ending the rain and overcast skies. Interesting to note here is that the NAM and GFS disagree on timing, with GFS pushing moisture out by late morning and the NAM keeping it through evening. If the NAM is correct, Friday will be much cooler and cloudier. However, GFS solution appears more likely for now, so sunny skies will likely prevail Friday afternoon, with light N winds.
  

Tuesday - Sunny Skies. High: 55-59


Tuesday Night -  Mostly Clear. Low: 43-47
 



Wednesday - AM Sun/Increasing PM Clouds. High: 64-68


 

Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45
 


Thursday - Possible Showers. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 
Today will remain sunny with breezy conditions and temperatures below seasonal average. Skies will remain clear overnight as a warm front will make its way into the area which will shift our winds out of the SW. Those SW winds will warm out temperatures to more seasonal levels. Clouds will begin to make their way into the area Wednesday night as a cold front will shift our winds out of the NW. There is a possibility of rain on Thursday once the cold front passes and temperatures will drop to well below seasonal averages.
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Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Farr
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 22,  2019



Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current model guidance a general model blend has been used to make this forecast.  Current temps are in the mid 40s for Mid-Missouri. The skies are clear and the air is fairly dry.

Today dry condition will continue and so will the breeze.  The forecast area is still under the influence of a 40kt low level jet due associated with a strong low pressure system still to our northeast,  With the LLJ still at about 40-50kts at times today, winds at the surface will be around 15-20mph sustained gusting to 30mph at times. Winds do begin to die down as the sun begins to set tonight. Cloud conver is expected tomorrow in the form of a mid-level clouds according to GFS and NAM forecast soundings as a we expect to be under the warm sector.  Temperatures warm fairly quickly as WAA is introduced from the warm front off to the north  Wednesday night into Thursday a cold front is expected to move through the forecast area. Models are in disagreement on how far south the cold front does go and how fast it moves through the area as well,  NAM is about three hours faster than the GFS so timing is an issue, currently anticipating FROPA to be around midnight Thursday.  As the cold front passes there will be some precipitation ahead of the front but post front rain is expected with a potential upper level disturbance moving along the gradient of the cold front.  NAM and GFS do differ of the strength of the upper level disturbance so depending on how strong this disturbance is will depend on how much rain does fall during the day Thursday. 

Monday, October 21, 2019

  

Monday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 42-46


 
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 54-58
 
 
 
Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Clouds building in. High: 64-68
 
 
 
Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 50-54
 
 

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Discussion: 
We will see clouds building in overnight Monday, resulting in partly cloudy skies on Tuesday with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's. It will stay partly cloudy Tuesday night, and we will continue to have lows in the lower 40's. On Wednesday, we will see clouds building in over the afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60's, and those clouds will remain in the area as we head into Thursday where temperatures will drop into the lower 50's.
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Forecasters: Heaven, Travis, Munley, Hatch
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 21,  2019



Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current model guidance, the 12Z GFS will be used, along with 15Z SREF plumes for temperature forecasting. 

Surface analysis currently indicates tightly packed MSLP contours, along with perpendicular contours of thickni,  leading to high winds and strong CAA.  Columbia will continue to cool down even more through Tuesday, however the low on Monday will be rather warm, as we will be under wrap-around cloud cover overnight.  The high on Tuesday will be fairly low once again, with partly cloudy skies keeping some insolation from warming Columbia.  The area will be under the influence of the 540 Thickness contour.  Temperatures be quite cool on Tuesday night, before WAA begins early Wednesday morning.  This WAA will ramp up quickly, with temperatures being 10 degrees higher than they were Tuesday.  Clouds will build through the day ahead of another cold front.  This cold front will pass late Wednesday into Thursday, with currently frontal passage expected around midnight.  Thursday will once again see the 540 line pass over Columbia. 
 
 

Monday - Decreasing clouds and breezy. High: 58-62 

Monday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 42-46

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Partly sunny. High: 64-68

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Discussion: 
A cold front passed through the Midwest last night bringing thunderstorms between midnight and 5am. Clouds will linger this morning but will filter out through the day as high pressure sets in. This will dominate our forecast period allowing for seasonal temperatures and minimal cloud cover. We're also looking at breezy conditions at the surface during most of our forecast period.
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Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, and Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 21,  2019



Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Overnight, a squall line moved across the Midwest creating severe weather mainly to the south of our forecast area, but we still saw heavy rain and some convection between 06Z to 12Z this morning. Rain totals were anywhere between 0.5" to a little over an inch. Most of the storms were ahead of the front. Shortly there after, the front passed through Mid-Missouri (not long after this forecast was issued). The cold front was associated with a stacked occluded low over the South Dakota-Nebraska border that is causing a very tight pressure gradient through our area. This will cause breezy conditions at the surface for the next few days. We're looking at wind gusts up to 25 knots. After the fronts and low pressure systems moved to our east, a high pressure system develops and moves just south of our forecast area, dominating our forecast period. Today, clouds will decrease as moisture moves to our east along the cold front, but thanks to the rain we saw last night, we will have enough moisture for low-level clouds tonight. Clouds will clear for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tuesday night will be a much cooler night since it is the first clear night after FROPA. Models suggest moisture and warmer air from the Gulf to filter in on Wednesday as the surface high moves to the east allowing for southerly flow. Future forecasters will need to keep an eye on rain potential Wednesday night.

Friday, October 18, 2019

 
 
Friday Night - Clear.  Low:  45-49



Saturday - Partly Cloudy. Afternoon showers possible. High:  60-64
 


Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 47-51

 

 Sunday - Cloudy. High: 63-67
 


Monday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 57-61

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Discussion: 

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Forecasters: Heaven, Travis, Fox, Balkissoon
Issued:  4:00 p.m. ; October 18,  2019


This weekend we expect to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies.  The average temperature ranges from the models outputs, puts us in the upper 40s for the lows of tonight as well as Saturday night. The high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are 60-64 and 63-67 degrees respectively. Monday's high is below the average temperature over the weekend due to the passage of a cold front associated with a low pressure system north of Missouri.  We expect on Sunday night, under 0.5 inches of rain.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
 
From the GFS 250mb Wind Divergence map, there is a formation of a low pressure system north-east of Missouri Sun 18z.  The max upper air divergence occurs on Monday 12z.  Around this period, this coincides with the maximum range of vorticity for our forecast period.  There is an area of positive vorticity representative of the circulation associated with this cyclonic development. A comma cloud is noted in the GFS 700mb map of RH in which around 15z on Monday, Missouri is in the dry conveyor belt region of the system.  The strong thickness (delta z) is also noted in the vicinity of the low pressure system on Monday when viewing the GFS 1000-500mb thickness map.

From GFS Skew-T analysis, we see that unlike Friday night, the atmosphere shows conditions conducive to rain as Saturday around 9am, areas of saturation is noted in the mid to upper levels (600hPa to 400hPa) and the same on Sunday but in the lower levels (850hPa to 1000hPa).  However, from the NAM total precipitation product, rain is expected in the North-Eastern parts of Missouri on Saturday 18z.  The maximum range of precipitation occurs on Monday at 7am throughout Missouri with values ranging from 0.26 to 0.90 inches. The NAM is however, over aggressive in its model precip output as both the GREF and SREF mean precipitation amounts from the various model run, saw rainfall value of approximately 0.3 inches.  


 
 Friday - Mostly sunny. High: 64-68


 Friday Night - Clouds building overnight. Low: 48-52

 


 
Saturday - Mostly cloudy with spotty showers.  High: 58-62


  
 Saturday Night - Most cloudy. Low 48-52

 
 
 Sunday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 61-65

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Discussion: 

Pleasant temperatures continue for Friday. We are expecting lots of sunshine for the end of our work week. Temperatures will remain seasonal, but they will be slightly cooler on Saturday thanks to a weak cold front moving through. Ahead of this cold front that will move through around mid-morning to early afternoon on Saturday, the clouds will begin building. As the front passes through mid-Missouri, spotty showers are expected. After the front passes, clouds will linger Saturday night into Sunday. Late Sunday night we have a chance for storms as a strong cold front approaches.
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Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued: 10:00am; October 18th, 2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

On Friday, the high pressure system that brought sunshine and warmer temperatures will persist. However, this high pressure system will move out of the area as a upper level trough moves through the area beginning Friday night. This upper level trough is associated with a weak cold front that will bring increasing cloud cover and the possibility for spotty showers. By Saturday evening, this cold front will move out of the area however, cloud coverage will linger.

Sunday will remain mostly calm ahead of our next storm system that will move through Sunday night. A strong upper level jet will push into our area Sunday ahead of our next frontal system. With this system, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight Sunday in Monday morning.

Thursday, October 17, 2019



 
Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 48-52

  


Friday- Clear. High: 72-75 

 
 Friday Night - Mostly sunny, with high clouds.  Low: 52-55


 

Saturday- Partly Cloudy. Highs: 71-74




 


Sunday - Cloudy with rain showers.  High: 75-78

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Discussion: 
Thursday and Friday will be quiet high pressure days with temperatures higher than what is seasonal. Saturaday clouds will move over Columbia as a cold front beings to influence the region. Sunday there will be rain showers, with the cold front and cloud cover will begin to dissapate after the weekend. 
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Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued: 5:00pm; October 17th, 2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Currently, the 300mb chart is showing that we are in a Meridonal pattern, with a jet max entering the base of the trough upstream of the forecast area. As the jet max enters the base of the trough, the trough will deepen and as the ridge leaves the trough the ridge will strengthen. This, in turn, translates to the ridge dominating Columbia for this evening and tomorrow.

Currently, the SREF and HREF are showing an LLJ moving into Missouri on Friday. However, this is closer to KMCI than KCOU. The current run is also showing a front moving into the area on late Saturday evening, early Sunday morning. With this precipitable water is showing 0.75-1.00 inches, so not a lot of water to work with. LI is currently showing the greatest probability of thunderstorm development, as does CAPE, at 18z Sunday. This, in turn, does not line up with the front moving through the area at 12Z Sunday morning. With this in mind, if there is more than a wind shift it will most likely be showers over Columbia Sunday morning.


 Thursday - Sunny. High:  64-68
 


Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 44-48

 
 
 Friday - Mostly sunny, with high clouds.  High: 66-70

 

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 45-49

 

 Saturday - Cloudy with rain.  High: 60-64

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Discussion: 
Today and tomorrow are going to be kind of slow weather wise. We have a high pressure system sitting over central Missouri. That is the reason we will be experiencing mostly sunny skies with southwest winds. Going into Saturday, our next system moves in causing winds to shift from southwest to northwest. This system will give us the possibility of showers during Saturday.
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Forecasters: Munley, Pauley, Gallahan
Issued: 10:00am; October 17th, 2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The WPC preferred model blend for this forecast period.

The main question for today is when will the winds make their directional shift? When looking at the winds at all the different levels, the models are in good agreement that the wind direction will begin to shift from the northwest to out of the west around 1:00am tomorrow morning. The winds will continue to make a directional shift and come out of the southwest between 10:00am and 1:00pm tomorrow. This indicates a veering winds which will bring WAA to the area. This will lead to temperatures Friday to be a little above seasonal average. This wind shift is also indicative of us being under a ridge of high pressure that is situated over the central CONUS. Things change for us Saturday as winds will begin to shift out of the NW around 10:00am Saturday. This will be a backing wind profile which will bring us CAA. This wind shift will also bring us a possibility of rain late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. This rainfall does not look very impressive however since we have PWAT values around 1 inch, so there won't be much moisture to work with. Vertical velocity also doesn't look all that impressive either, so there won't be much rising motion either. Lastly we lack any CAPE, so there won't be much convection associated with this rain either, so precipitation-wise we are looking at a possibility of scattered showers starting around 9am  and lasting until around 3pm. These showers however do not look to be continuous, but more off and on during this time period.