Friday, December 6, 2019

Friday Night - Scattered clouds. Low: 28-32

Saturday - Clear skies. High: 44-48

Saturday Night - Clear skies.  Low: 32-36

Sunday- Mostly cloudy. High: 52-56

Monday- Overcast skies High: 42-46

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We have colder temperatures today in the low of 43 degrees (Sanborn Field) because current winds are out of the north.  However, this will be an uneventful weather weekend ahead.  Temperatures are expected to rise and we expect clear skies for most of the weekend as there is no systems moving through the area. However Sunday night, we expect traces of rain over Columbia which will persist into Monday morning. 
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Travis
Issued:  5:00pm December 06 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From the analysis of the 12Z GFS run 500-mb absolute vorticity map, we see that for the majority of Saturday and Sunday there are no areas of circulation. This is as a result of a zonal flow for most of the weekend from the GFS 500-mb height map and a surface high pressure system moving to the East which is observed from the  GFS MSLP map.  On Monday, however, as a low pressure system comes in from the S-W, we see regions of circulation over Missouri.  From further analysis, looking at the 700-mb RH and Omega map, whilst there is significant RH values, they do not coincide with high UVM.  As such, we do not anticipate much precipitation on Monday.

From the GFS Skew-T analysis and the NAM total precipitation run , this is supported.  We see a saturated environment and moist air mass from Sunday 3pm to Monday mid-day but only a trace to max precipitation amount of 0.04 inches in Columbia.  The GEFS also indicates low precipitation amounts with a total being 0.01 inches.   This is as a result of not having a strong Omega field in conjunction with a saturated environment.    

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