Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 50-54

Wednesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 34-38

Thursday- Increasing clouds. High: 56-60

Thursday Night- Cloudy with rain. Low: 34-38

Friday- Cloudy, with clouds thinning. High: 40-44

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Wednesday is expected to get fairly warm for December, with temperatures expected to get into the 50s.  Winds will remain out of the northwest through the day.  In the early hours of Thursday, winds will start to change to be out of the south, bringing warmer temperatures into the area.  These temperatures are not expected to be too much higher than Wednesday's, as cloud cover is expected to move in ahead of a low pressure system.  Rain is likely Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.  Early Friday morning the cold front will pass over Columbia, and temperatures are expected to fall to close to normal temperatures, although still a little on the warm side. 
Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  10:00 am, December 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC guidance indicates that a non-UKMET blend is ideal, and as such, the forecast will be made using the 06Z GFS and  09Z SREF plumes. 

Wednesday will continue to see clear skies, with soundings indicating no saturation at any level.  Winds will be out of the northwest through the day.  Temperatures are expected to get relatively high due to diurnal heating. 

Early Thursday morning will see Columbia enter WAA ahead of a surface low based over the Great Lakes, along with clouds starting to build into the area ahead of the cold front attached to this low.  Precipitation is not expected during the day Thursday, but Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.  Rain is expected to start around 00Z.  No storms are expected with this pre-frontal precipitation, as soundings indicate no CAPE and positive LI. Rainfall totals are expected to be quite low, as this rain will be stratiform in nature and quite light.

Early Friday morning will see cold frontal passage.  Temperatures will drop a fair amount, with clouds lingering behind the front, but starting to thin throughout the day.  CAA will be in place most of the day, with CAA ceasing late Friday. 

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