Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Tuesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 28-32

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 48-52

Wednesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Thursday- Increasing clouds. Rain possible late. High: 52-56

Friday- Partly cloudy. High: 40-44

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Tuesday night we remain in a quiet weather pattern, keeping skies mostly clear. As we move into Wednesday, skies remain mostly clear with quiet weather patterns still in place. Sunny skies with light winds from the west will allow temperatures to heat up into the upper 40's. The quiet weather patterns continue into mid Thursday, when a disturbance will enter the region. This will bring in a chance for precipitation late Thursday into Thursday night, with a cold front following behind the rain. Friday will be cooler as the cold front moves past.
Forecasters: Savoy, Lujan, Vanderpool
Issued:  5:00 pm, December 3, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC Model Diagnostic discussion supports a general model blend, with less weight on the 12z GFS by Day 3. Therefore, 12z GFS is our model of choice, with more attention towards the SREF by later in the period.

There is really not too much to talk about in our region of the CONUS right now. A large trough (which is supporting a pretty potent Nor'easter just off the coast of New England) is located just to our east. This trough is moving away from us, which is leading to northwesterly flow aloft over our area. A fairly quiet pattern will remain in place for the next two days, with not much to speak of weather-wise.

For tonight, cool conditions are expected as light winds and clear skies allow for radiational cooling. We have elected to keep lows in the 28-32 degree range for now - models want to push a couple degrees warmer, but the lack of wind and cloud cover should allow cooler temperatures than what the models currently suggest. Tomorrow, clear skies and light winds will allow for a sun-driven warm-up, with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Overall, a pleasant late Fall day is in store for our Wednesday.

The quiet pattern continues Wednesday night and into the first half of our day on Thursday, with the airmass modifying only slightly - therefore, temperatures Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, and temperatures Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than tomorrow. For late in the day Thursday, our only shot at some more active weather will present itself in the form of an upper-level shortwave passing over Missouri. This shortwave will provide just enough lift, combined with sufficient moisture, to produce a few rain showers over the area Thursday evening and night. The shortwave will be accompanied by a cold front, which should enter the region late Thursday night/ early Friday morning. The front will drop temperatures about ten degrees from where they will be on Thursday, and as a result, we're expecting a partly cloudy day on Friday with temperatures hanging in the low to mid 40s.

1 comment:

  1. I appreciate this blog! It's an excellent way for me to keep track of mid Missouri weather conditions. I love reading the "nerdy details", too! I don't understand a lot of it, but it's cool to read about the tools and analysis you use to arrive at your forecast. Keep up the good work, team!