Tuesday, December 3, 2019

  Tuesday- AM Clouds. Afternoon Clearing. High: 46-50

 Tuesday Night- Clear. Low: 28-32

  Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 48-52

Wednesday Night- Clear. Low: 32-36


Thursday - Partly Cloudy Low: 50-54

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Currently there are high level clouds over Columbia. These clouds are going to clear out this afternoon giving us sunny skies for the rest of the day and high temps around 50 degrees. Tonight and tomorrow skies will remain clear with light winds from the NW. This will keep the forecast pretty persistent with temperature again around average. Thursday, winds begin to shift to WSW as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains. This will help bring in some moisture and will will see increasing clouds for the afternoon.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00 am, December 3, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

General model blend is recommended by the Weather Prediction Center. Therefore, we used 06Z NAM and GFS models for this forecast. The next couple of days seem pretty persistent with the main topic of discussion on Thursday with the possibility of rain. 

The overcast skies that are currently over the area are expected to move off to the East this afternoon. This is due to the region being in a post-trough pattern which is ushering in dry NW winds. GFS soundings indicate that the skies will remain clear overnight into Thursday morning as the column remains dry throughout this entire period. The flow at 250mb remains zonal as well giving us relatively calm conditions and seasonal temperatures. This calm weather pattern is also due to the Middle Mississippi Valley region situated between the polar and subtropical jets. Thursday morning a shortwave trough is anticipated to be over Central California. This shortwave will bring the potential for late afternoon rain. 06z GFS sounding indicates Thursday the column becoming saturated between 700mb to 680mb, and also between 450mb and 400mb. There however is a dry layer from the surface to 700mb and at 680mb to 450mb, with all this in mind indicates sky condition for Thursday afternoon is expected to be partly cloudy skies. Refer to later forecast shifts for more details on the rain potential for Thursday.

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