Friday, February 21, 2020





Friday Night - Clear.  Low: 22-26

Saturday -  Sunny. High: 50-54



Saturday Night -  Clear.  Low: 32-36



Sunday - Cloudy with chances of rain.  High: 46-50



Monday - Cloudy with chances of rain.  High: 44-48



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Discussion: 
We warm up a bit for the beginning of the weekend, on Saturday, as we have no significant weather phenomenons taking place.  However, on Sunday due to the low pressure system moving in from the west, we are expecting some rainfall into Monday.
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Forecasters: Balkissoon, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: February 21, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
From the WPC model diagnostics, the GFS blend was recommended for forecast analyses however the confidence given was below average. As such our map discussion will be done using products from the GFS run.  For our temperature values and the total precipitation amounts, the GEFS plumes were consulted.

Our first map that we looked at is the 250-hPa wind, heights and divergence.  For this weekend we sit underneath the jet.  We observe divergence aloft which implies that there is convergence taking place near the surface.  This convergence at the surface that rises is indicative of cyclonic motion in which there is the expectation of precipitation around Monday at 6Z. 

From the 500-hPa absolute vorticity map, at Monday at 0Z, we have a low pressure system coming in from the west of Missouri.  We observe with this feature, an counter-clockwise curvature of wind flow.  This system is more mature as it has a closed off cycle. 

From the 700-hPa Omega and RH, we observe that there is significant amount of moisture which is being fed from the Pacific.  We do have the combination of lift and saturation which is the reason behind our expectation of precipitation Sunday evening into Monday.  This is also supported from the GFS skew-T which shows both moisture and omega starting from Sunday at 21Z.  From our analysis of the 850-hPa winds, heights and temperatures, we can infer that the precipitation type is rainfall as we are expected to be consistently above freezing into the weekend and early week.  This is so as the warmer air is coming from the South-West.  We also observe the warming effects from looking at the thickness 1000-500-hPa map where the thickness contours are moving closer together.  From this map we observe CAA taking place as the counter-clockwise rotation of the cyclone is bringing in cold air from the north. 

The GEFS plumes have a total accumulation of rainfall in the amount of a little under one and a quarter inches. 


Thursday, February 20, 2020


 
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22  
 


Friday - Sunny. High: 38-42 



Friday Night - Clear. Low: 22-26
 


Saturday -  Sunny. High: 50-54
 
Sunday - Becoming cloudy. Evening rain. High: 46-50



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Discussion: 
As high pressure sets in, there will northerly winds until Friday night bringing in cool, dry air. After the system passes over the central US, we will be left with southeasterly winds meaning warm, but still dry air. This will persist until a low pressure system nears Missouri on Sunday bringing moisture and a decent chance for rain.
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Forecasters: Dowell, Lieberman, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: February 20, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
We primarily used a general model blend of the GFS and NAM as well as SREF plumes and GEFS products. The WPC recommends a general model blend. Currently at 250MB, the jet max is located east of New England, placing Missouri in the left entrance region, increasing the chance for convergence aloft. Flow is primarily zonal over the CONUS. At 500MB, a longwave trough extends from Lake Eerie to Kansas. This feature has rotational energy associated with it over Mid-Missouri. At 700MB, moisture has just moved southeast of Missouri and the area is left with unsaturated air. At 850MB, an anticyclone centered over the Kansas-Nebraska border is causing northerly winds and CAA. At the surface this feature is reflected and station plots show northerly winds and temperatures in the high 20s (Fahrenheit) in the area.


The anticyclone will flow southeast Thursday night until midday along the Missouri-Arkansas border, allowing the CAA to continue. Along with clear skies and radiational heating, Friday will be significantly warmer than Thursday. With relatively no moisture in the area, cloud cover will be minimal or non-existent. Winds will be minimal as the center of the anti-cyclone passes just south of Columbia. Midday, CAA will begin to transition to WAA as the anti-cyclone travels downstream, bringing southwesterly winds and creating solenoids. This will continue overnight Friday into Saturday bringing WAA that will persist as Columbia will see unseasonably warm temperatures.





Saturday night, clear skies and radiational cooling are expected. However, temperatures will quickly warm again as flow remains
southerly and temperature gradients suggest increasing WAA throughout the day. Additionally, a low pressure system will approach from due west and bring moisture into Missouri. This system is expected to bring rotational energy and lift sufficient for stratiform rain beginning Sunday evening. SREF plumes are clustered into a warmer and cooler group for Sunday. dPROG/dt analysis suggest a cooling trend in more recent SREF runs. Therefore, it is expected that the temperatures will be in the mid to high 40's. QPF SREF plumes do not inspire confidence as the spread ranges from 0.02 inch to 1.04 inches with relatively no clustering. Moreover, dPROG/dt suggests an increasing trend. We expect around 0.5 inch of rain. Future forecasters should monitor the system and its expected precipitation output.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020




Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 20-24
 


Thursday - Becoming Sunny. High: 28-32

 

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 14-18  

 

 Friday - Sunny. High: 38-42
 

 
Saturday -  Sunny. High: 48-52

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Discussion: 
Clouds will roll in for the overnight hours, but they will not last long. A high pressure system will build in from the north, bringing sunnier skies by tomorrow morning. The high will actually create clear skies for the next few days. However, it will also bring colder temperatures with it, with the cold air remaining with us through Thursday night. Temperatures will then warm up starting Friday as the high pressure system moves east and southerly winds return to mid-Missouri.
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Forecasters: Pauley, Vanderpool, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: February 19, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 

The WPC Model Diagnostic discussion issued at 3:08 pm this afternoon advocates a general model blend through the short term, with the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET favored after 00z on the 21st. Therefore, we have used the GFS for synoptic-scale guidance, with additional guidance provided by the SREF and HREF.

18z surface analysis reveals an impressive surface high centered over eastern North Dakota. Working from the top down, flow aloft at 250 mb was zonal across the majority of the CONUS. At 500 mb, a positively-tilted trough was noted in the north central United States, with the axis of this trough extending roughly from International Falls, MN to Salt Lake City, UT. The surface high should intensify through the next 12-18 hours as the trough axis passes east of it, setting up negative vorticity advection. This will ensure that the surface high is healthy when it arrives in Missouri. 

Overnight, the aforementioned high will continue to build south. Moisture between 850 mb and 500 mb will be plentiful as cold air advection kicks in, making for a mostly cloudy night over central Missouri. Western and central KS will even see some snowfall -- courtesy of frontogenetic forcing -- but this forcing will remain well west of our area. The moisture aloft will move out Thursday morning, leaving us with northerly winds and sunny skies by the afternoon hours. Those northerly winds will be the cause of the cooler temperatures. 

Thursday night, temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid 10s as the center of the surface high builds into central Missouri. Clear skies, dry air, and light northerly winds will further help to cool near-surface temperatures down. Model guidance from the GFS and SREF is leaning towards a low in the upper 10s and lower 20s, but given the overall setup, temperatures should drop a few degrees lower than that.

Starting Friday, the surface high will shift east. The associated return flow will cause strong warm air advection as winds take on a southerly component. Model solutions still indicate a relative lack of moisture and lift in the atmosphere through Saturday, which should translate into mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures to begin the weekend. Looking to the long term, models continue to advertise cyclogenesis on the east side of the Rockies, with this low pressure system likely to start impacting the weather in Missouri starting Saturday night.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020





Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 22-26





Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. 36-40






Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 20-24





Thursday - AM Clouds/PM Clearing. High: 28-32





Thursday Night -  Clear skies. Low: 18-22

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Discussion: 
The current partly cloudy skies will continue overnight into tomorrow with seasonal high temperatures. Clouds will increase going into tomorrow night and temperatures will fall to below average temperatures as a cold front will start to approach the the area. Thursday will remain cloudy until the afternoon when the cold front will pass through the area. This cold front will drop the high temperatures to below seasonal values. The clear skies will remain into Thursday night which will allow the low temperatures to drop to the coldest of the week.
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Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: February 18, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main topic of this forecast period is the seasonal temperatures the will continue until Thursday, then an approaching cold front which will drop the temperatures to the upper teens Thursday night. Along with the cold front, the skies will clear which will contribute to the cold temperatures. 

Model guidance suggests a general model blend for the next 48 hours, 06z GEFS for temperatures and 18z NAM and 12z GFS soundings for sky conditions.

Current set up has Columbia under a 250mb zonal flow. This will pattern will continue until Wednesday night when a weak shortwave will make its way into the area. In terms of 500mb circulation, there is a lack of circulation until early Thursday morning. This circulation gives an indication of a potential frontal passage. There doesn't appear to be much UVM as well as the highest UVM values will be no higher than 5 ubar/s. The 700mb RH values will remain very dry all the way into Thursday morning with values no higher than 20%. The RH values will increase going into early Thursday morning and reach as high as 90% which could indicate the potential for precipitation, and with the abundance of cold air in place would be a snow potential. The possibility of any snow doesn't look very good due to the lack of UVM during this period though. Once the cold front passes, 18z NAM and 12z GFS soundings indicate the column drying out and a backing wind profile. This will give Columbia clear skies overnight Thursday. This will allow for Thursday night to be the coldest night of the week.

Monday, February 17, 2020





Monday Night - Cloudy and isolated rain showers. Low: 32-36




Tuesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 38-42




Tuesday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 22-26




Wednesday Clear Skies. High: 34-38





Thursday -  Clear skies. High: 36-40

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Discussion: 
Rain will continue through Monday evening as a surface low moves through Central Missouri. After cold frontal passage, cold air and high pressure will move over the Columbia region, bringing in lower temperatures. Temperatures will drop below zero starting on Tuesday and remaining low throughout the remainder of the week. 
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Forecasters: Savoy, Owens, Munley
Issued:  10:00am: February 17, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
Light rain showers throughout the day. SkewT's indicate saturation at the lower levels along with the upward vertical motion that has supported that rain showers throughout the day will begin to dissipate around 21Z. Currently, there is a mid-level trough over the Dakota's at 500 mb, as we move closer into 700 mb the trough deepens. This trough leads into a cyclone at the surface levels over the Northern Nebraska and Southern South Dakota region that with remain north of us in Columbia. This surface-level cyclone helped us warm up over the weekend and into today but as winds begin to back temperatures will drop as the cold front beings to move in. 
The cold front will bring along high pressure as indicated on the 1000-500mb thickness chart, which should keep conditions pretty persistent for the next couple of days. The coldest temperatures should come Tuesday night, after the frontal passage due to the lack of cloud cover to keep us relatively warm. Clouds will remain scarce helping the cold front to keep our temperatures cooler. 

No significant weather changes will be happening during the forecast period but as the group stated before, a negatively titled trough at 250 mb positioned over the Rockies begins to set up Wednesday night. No changes have been noted but futures forecasters should keep watch.



Monday - Overcast. Light rain showers likely from mid-morning to early afternoon. High: 50-54


 
Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 30-34


Tuesday - Mostly cloudy in morning, clearing by afternoon. High: 36-40


Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 20-24





Wednesday -  Mostly sunny. High: 32-36

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Discussion: 
Rain is likely through the day Monday, with rainfall totals less than 0.25". Temperatures will also be warmer, as they were yesterday. A cold front will sweep across Missouri overnight, cooling us down into the 30s for a high temperature tomorrow. High pressure will dominate the rest of the forecast period as clouds begin to move out tomorrow afternoon.
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Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: February 17, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
The 06Z GFS and ensembles helped guide our forecast today, as verified by the WPC. The main topic for the forecast will be the precipitation today and cyclogenesis to our North. Currently in Columbia, light rain showers are falling from overcast skies. Based off current soundings, we assume this will continue until around 21Z as values of omega begin to diminish. The primary form of precipitation will be stratiform. However, there is the possibility for some of this precipitation to be cumuliform in nature given the low CAPE values over Missouri. Satellite imagery confirms some, albeit very little, areas of high clouds. CIN values are forecasted to be high, which would inhibit convection. Saturation from the surface to around 600mb begins to break up after 21Z, ending the possibility of rain showers. We remain saturated close to the surface after this keeping the skies mostly cloudy overnight and into tomorrow. 

Currently, there is a cyclone developing over South Dakota. This cyclone has an associated warm and cold front with it. Right now we are in the warm sector providing warmer temperatures today than what we saw yesterday. The movement of this will be mostly zonal and to the north of us as we remain in the right entrance region of the jet at 300mb. Evidence of backing begins at 03z Tuesday morning as the cold front moves across the state. As the cold air sets in, so does high pressure at the surface. This will help keep things pretty persistent Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday night, temperatures will drop to the lower 20s as this is the first clear night after cold FROPA. Clouds move to our east, and sky conditions will stay clear for the rest of the forecast period. Looking ahead, future forecasters should be aware of a negatively tilted trough at 250mb that begins to move across the Rockies Wednesday night.

Friday, February 14, 2020





Friday Night - Clear. Low: 22-26


Saturday - Overcast. High: 42-46



Saturday Night - Scattered Clouds.  High: 26-30


Sunday - Partially Cloudy.  High: 46-50





Monday -  Rainy.  High: 50-54

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Discussion: 
For this weekend, we expect warmer temperatures than today.  This weekend the flow is more zonal which indicates that we should expect quieter weather.  However going into Monday we expect precipitation in the form of rainfall though it may be a maximum of 0.25 inches. 
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Forecasters: Balkissoon, Munley, Travis
Issued:  5:00pm: February 14, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 


For today's analyses, we will be using a both the GFS, NAM and SREF outputs as the WPC's model diagnostics preference.

Today's low temperature can be attributed to our northward position of the jet as seen in 250 hPa map.  Throughout the remainder of the weekend the flow becomes more zonal as there are no significant strong troughs and ridges thus the expectation of quiet weather.  Similarly for 500 hPa map of relative vorticity, over the weekend there is no significant longwaves or shortwaves  as such we don't see much circulation over our area over the weekend.  However, today since we sit on a base of a trough of a shortwave where there is a counterclockwise wind flow, we incur positive curvature.  Together with the increased shear indicative of the higher change in wind speed over the horizontal contours implies we have increase vorticity over the region.  We observed this from the map.

From the 700 hPa RH and Omega map, there is no moisture over Northern Missouri until Saturday at 12Z however, there is no significant lift (Omega = -1).  Similarly, Sunday at 18Z we have the same situation.   On Monday at 18Z, looking at this map, we observed that precipitation is hindered once again not because the lack of moisture in the atmosphere but the UVM.  Consulting the GFS Skew-Ts we observe the best chances of rain is on Monday from 3pm to 6pm as we do have the combination of these two parameters.  This is supported by the NAM run which puts us at a max of 0.25 inches on Monday at 3pm.  From the SREF, the models average output does show precipitation fro Monday.

From the 850 hPa map, we also see  the transitioning from colder to warmer temperatures from Friday to Saturday.  We observe this from the change in the direction in which the wind is blowing; it changes from the North-West to South-West. Warm air from the NW is blowing through our region.  We see further support of this when we look at the 1000-500  hPa thickness.  The thickness contours are more dense on Saturday than Friday.  From the hypsometric equation delta z is proportional to average temperature, thus we expect our temperatures to rise on Saturday.  From this map, we also observe that the pressure contours are perpendicular to the thickness contours indicative of WAA.     










Thursday, February 13, 2020

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
 
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 2-6


 
Friday- Sunny. High: 28-32 
 


Friday Night - Clear. Low: 22-26

 
 
 
Saturday - Overcast. High: 46-50



Sunday - Clear. High: 50-54


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Discussion: 
Following last night's cold front, we expect clouds to clear out as high pressure sets in. Tonight will be bitterly cold as it is the first clear night after a cold front. However, this weekend will have a general warming trend as warm air moves in from the southwest. High pressure will ensure mostly clear skies except for Saturday where there will be just enough moisture to provide a greater amount of cloud cover.
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Forecasters: Lieberman, Dowell, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: February 13, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
We used primarily the GFS supplemented with NAM soundings and SREF plumes. The WPC recommends a general model blend trending toward the GFS and NAM. At 250MB, a jet max is located over Maine and southeast Canada. This places Columbia well within the left entrance region, indicating higher chances for divergence aloft. At 500MB a positively oriented trough extends from the Great Lakes to western Kansas. At 700MB moisture has cleared out from last night and we are left with northwesterly winds. Moving down to 850MB, we see zonal flow and extremely cold temperature profiles throughout the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure is centered over the eastern Nebraska-South Dakota border. This anti-cyclone is causing northerly winds in Columbia currently.

The trough is expected to pass over mid-MO late tonight going into early tomorrow morning. Despite rotational energy associated with this feature, a general lack of moisture and forecasted lift leave no concern for precipitation. However, aloft, the trough will bring northerly winds and CAA. Moreover, the high pressure system at the surface will continue to bring northeasterly winds and CAA as well. This, combined with tonight being the first clear night after cold FROPA means that it will be exceptionally cold.

Friday, clear skies and radiational heating will bring air temperatures up to near freezing. With relatively no moisture in the area, cloud cover will be minimal or non-existent. Winds will be minimal as the center of the anti-cyclone passes just north of Columbia. Late Friday evening,  CAA will begin to transition to WAA as the anti-cyclone travels downstream, bringing southwesterly winds and creating solenoids.

This will continue overnight Friday into Saturday bringing warmer temperatures. Moisture will also be advected into the area bringing cloud cover. Friday night will therefore be substantially warmer than Thursday night and this trend will continue into Saturday as moisture and WAA persist and Columbia will see unseasonably warm temperatures.

Moisture will clear out Saturday night bringing clear skies on Sunday. This combined with minimal winds will bring slightly warmer temperatures than Saturday. Future forecasters should monitor the possibility for persistent moisture and cloud cover.