Monday, February 24, 2020

Monday - Overcast. Rain showers likely all day. High: 44-48

Monday Night - Overcast. Isolated showers possible early evening, then dry until morning. Low: 34-38  

Tuesday - Overcast. Scattered showers through the day. High: 38-42

Tuesday Night - Overcast. Rain turning to snow early evening. Low: 26-30

Wednesday - Overcast morning; decreasing clouds through the day. Lingering snow showers possible in morning. High: 30-34

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Rain is settled over Missouri today. As of 8am, Mizzou's campus has already received a little over 0.5" of rain, and at least another 0.5" is expected from this rain event. We expect some dry time overnight before rain ramps back up tomorrow. However, tomorrow's rain looks to be more scattered than today's widespread rain. Tuesday night, cold air moves into the state. Temperatures will drop and snow showers are possible on the backside of this system. Moisture will move out by midday Wednesday where we may finally see the sun again.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: February 24, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
Model guidance from the WPC recommends to use a general model blend given the average and less than average confidence of the next couple of days. Therefore, for this forecast we used a combination of the GFS, GEFS, and the SREF. The main focus for today's forecast will be the duration of the current precipitation, when the next wave of precipitation will start, and the precip type for Wednesday morning. 

Currently, the cyclone affecting our current weather is parked over northeastern Oklahoma. The present low is evident from 700mb down to the surface at this same location. This vertically stacked low helps diagnose this as a dying system. Around 21Z today at 700mb, the low parks itself over Missouri and remains stationary for a couple of hours. A developing cyclone looks to move south from South Dakota and begins to engulf the present low. This new system will likely strengthen due the vast amount of upper lever support such as a negatively tilted trough at 300mb. This system will then move northeast over the Great Lakes and continue to gain strength.

In terms of precipitation, today we will likely see rain all day. Soundings from the GFS show omega values dwindling around 03Z tomorrow indicating a possible break in precip tonight. Nevertheless, we remain saturated so isolated showers are still possible overnight. Tuesday remains relatively persistent in relation to today as the low still hovers over the Midwest. Omega values increase throughout the day so rain is forecasted to dominate our weather tomorrow. Rain totals look to be in the 1-1.5" range after all is said and done on Tuesday. Mizzou's campus has already received over 0.5" of rainfall, so we have high confidence in that forecasted amount.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the aforementioned new system begins to translate to the northeast and matures rapidly. This results in CAA over Columbia, also enhanced by a LLJ from the north. Temperatures decrease quite a bit and we could see some snow from wraparound precip. However, the LLJ brings continental air which does not support moisture. This could potentially inhibit snowfall for Tuesday night. At this point in time, light snow showers are still possible, but future forecasters should keep an eye on the moisture and lift associated with this system.

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