Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 20-24

Thursday - Becoming Sunny. High: 28-32


Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 14-18  


 Friday - Sunny. High: 38-42

Saturday -  Sunny. High: 48-52

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Clouds will roll in for the overnight hours, but they will not last long. A high pressure system will build in from the north, bringing sunnier skies by tomorrow morning. The high will actually create clear skies for the next few days. However, it will also bring colder temperatures with it, with the cold air remaining with us through Thursday night. Temperatures will then warm up starting Friday as the high pressure system moves east and southerly winds return to mid-Missouri.
Forecasters: Pauley, Vanderpool, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: February 19, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The WPC Model Diagnostic discussion issued at 3:08 pm this afternoon advocates a general model blend through the short term, with the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET favored after 00z on the 21st. Therefore, we have used the GFS for synoptic-scale guidance, with additional guidance provided by the SREF and HREF.

18z surface analysis reveals an impressive surface high centered over eastern North Dakota. Working from the top down, flow aloft at 250 mb was zonal across the majority of the CONUS. At 500 mb, a positively-tilted trough was noted in the north central United States, with the axis of this trough extending roughly from International Falls, MN to Salt Lake City, UT. The surface high should intensify through the next 12-18 hours as the trough axis passes east of it, setting up negative vorticity advection. This will ensure that the surface high is healthy when it arrives in Missouri. 

Overnight, the aforementioned high will continue to build south. Moisture between 850 mb and 500 mb will be plentiful as cold air advection kicks in, making for a mostly cloudy night over central Missouri. Western and central KS will even see some snowfall -- courtesy of frontogenetic forcing -- but this forcing will remain well west of our area. The moisture aloft will move out Thursday morning, leaving us with northerly winds and sunny skies by the afternoon hours. Those northerly winds will be the cause of the cooler temperatures. 

Thursday night, temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid 10s as the center of the surface high builds into central Missouri. Clear skies, dry air, and light northerly winds will further help to cool near-surface temperatures down. Model guidance from the GFS and SREF is leaning towards a low in the upper 10s and lower 20s, but given the overall setup, temperatures should drop a few degrees lower than that.

Starting Friday, the surface high will shift east. The associated return flow will cause strong warm air advection as winds take on a southerly component. Model solutions still indicate a relative lack of moisture and lift in the atmosphere through Saturday, which should translate into mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures to begin the weekend. Looking to the long term, models continue to advertise cyclogenesis on the east side of the Rockies, with this low pressure system likely to start impacting the weather in Missouri starting Saturday night.

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