Friday, February 7, 2020

Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26

Saturday -  Skies begin to clear. High: 34-38

Saturday Night - Clear. High: 28-32

 Sunday - Overcast with rain. High: 44-48

Monday -  Scattered Clouds. High: 36-40

Thanks to for the icons!

As we embark on this weekend, we expect clearer skies on Saturday.  However, this is short lived as on Sunday, the passage of a warm front is expected in the morning.  We are expected to have overcast skies with rain for the duration of 6am to 3pm, according to the average of all the models output.  
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Heaven
Issued:  5:00pm: February 7 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 

From the GFS 250 hPa wind divergence we observe that this Friday we sit in the trough, north of the jet which can account for our cold temperatures today.  On Saturday the jet moves east of us and by Sunday the flow becomes more zonal.  Similarly, from the 500 hPa vorticity map on Friday, we see regions of high circulation over our area as expected.

From the 700 hPa Omega and height, on Sunday at 9Z we see regions of moisture but that is not accompanied by any lift.  We see on Sunday at 12-15Z however, there is significant vertical motion to support precipitation.  From the GFS Skew-T, this is supported, as saturated environment is observed is observed from 9Z - 18Z on Sunday.  The NAM gives similar runs as it places 0.02 - 0.06 inches of rainfall during this period.  From the SREF, the max amount of rainfall is 0.03 inches. 

We note a rise of approximately 10 degrees from Saturday to Sunday's High because we see from the 850 Wind-Height map, warm air is advecting from the south.  Also since we lie in the warm sector, which is indicator of why we expect rainfall on Sunday. 

No comments:

Post a Comment