Monday, February 24, 2020

Monday Night - Overcast with rain early evening showers. Low: 34-38

Tuesday - Overcast with morning rain showers and evening snow showers High: 38-42

Tuesday Night - Overcast. Light snow showers. Low: 26-30

Wednesday - Early morning snow. Decreasing clouds throughout the day.  High: 32-36

Thursday- Clear. High: 36-40

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Rain has been falling throughout the day, most recent amounts recorded at 0.83 inches. Rain totals through tonight are expected to reach close to an inch. The rain will dwiddle over night and pick back up again Tuesday morning. Snowfall is expected to begin Tuesday around sunset as temperatures begin to drop but there is little accumulation to be expected. Light Snowfall, if any, will be around until Wednesday morning when clouds are expected to clear bringing in sunshine all the way into Thursday. 
Forecasters: Owens, Savoy, Ritter
Issued:  10:00am: February 24, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Model verification is tricky today given that we are dealing with an occlusion moving through central Missouri. The SREF does not have the system occluded as deeply as the upper air data is showing. HREF does have a better handle on the situation. RAP and GFS Skew-t's were verified with upstream data, from KTOP and were within acceptable deviations, only being slightly warmer than KTOP, both being 3 degrees higher than the 12Z observed.

For the short term forecast, the rain will continue to fall until the occlusion and associated wrap-around moisture moves downstream of Columbia. Model products are currently progging this at 0500Z, and, using the extrapolation method on the radar, the center of the low is expected to follow this pattern.

While Central Missouri is dealing with the rain, the next weather system has been developing over North and South Dakota. As this system begins to move toward the Columbia area, snowfall and rain have to be considered. Current model timing is placing this system moving into the region Tuesday afternoon. With Columbia being well to the North of the 0-degree isotherm, at the 850-mb level than snow is a distinct probability. However, SFC temps are expected to be right around freezing, in the afternoon, so any snowfall should not accumulate. These will pass through early Wednesday morning.

After Cthulhu gets done spreading his insanity in the area, conditions are expected to improve. There will still be some cloud cover over Wednesday morning, however, this will dissipate and clear blue and 22 will dominate the area for the remainder of the period. With this, temps will be increasing on both Wednesday and Thursday, with temps going above freezing Wednesday afternoon.

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