Monday, February 17, 2020

Monday - Overcast. Light rain showers likely from mid-morning to early afternoon. High: 50-54

Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy in morning, clearing by afternoon. High: 36-40

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 20-24

Wednesday -  Mostly sunny. High: 32-36

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Rain is likely through the day Monday, with rainfall totals less than 0.25". Temperatures will also be warmer, as they were yesterday. A cold front will sweep across Missouri overnight, cooling us down into the 30s for a high temperature tomorrow. High pressure will dominate the rest of the forecast period as clouds begin to move out tomorrow afternoon.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: February 17, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
The 06Z GFS and ensembles helped guide our forecast today, as verified by the WPC. The main topic for the forecast will be the precipitation today and cyclogenesis to our North. Currently in Columbia, light rain showers are falling from overcast skies. Based off current soundings, we assume this will continue until around 21Z as values of omega begin to diminish. The primary form of precipitation will be stratiform. However, there is the possibility for some of this precipitation to be cumuliform in nature given the low CAPE values over Missouri. Satellite imagery confirms some, albeit very little, areas of high clouds. CIN values are forecasted to be high, which would inhibit convection. Saturation from the surface to around 600mb begins to break up after 21Z, ending the possibility of rain showers. We remain saturated close to the surface after this keeping the skies mostly cloudy overnight and into tomorrow. 

Currently, there is a cyclone developing over South Dakota. This cyclone has an associated warm and cold front with it. Right now we are in the warm sector providing warmer temperatures today than what we saw yesterday. The movement of this will be mostly zonal and to the north of us as we remain in the right entrance region of the jet at 300mb. Evidence of backing begins at 03z Tuesday morning as the cold front moves across the state. As the cold air sets in, so does high pressure at the surface. This will help keep things pretty persistent Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday night, temperatures will drop to the lower 20s as this is the first clear night after cold FROPA. Clouds move to our east, and sky conditions will stay clear for the rest of the forecast period. Looking ahead, future forecasters should be aware of a negatively tilted trough at 250mb that begins to move across the Rockies Wednesday night.

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