Thursday, February 20, 2020

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22  

Friday - Sunny. High: 38-42 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 22-26

Saturday -  Sunny. High: 50-54
Sunday - Becoming cloudy. Evening rain. High: 46-50

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As high pressure sets in, there will northerly winds until Friday night bringing in cool, dry air. After the system passes over the central US, we will be left with southeasterly winds meaning warm, but still dry air. This will persist until a low pressure system nears Missouri on Sunday bringing moisture and a decent chance for rain.
Forecasters: Dowell, Lieberman, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: February 20, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
We primarily used a general model blend of the GFS and NAM as well as SREF plumes and GEFS products. The WPC recommends a general model blend. Currently at 250MB, the jet max is located east of New England, placing Missouri in the left entrance region, increasing the chance for convergence aloft. Flow is primarily zonal over the CONUS. At 500MB, a longwave trough extends from Lake Eerie to Kansas. This feature has rotational energy associated with it over Mid-Missouri. At 700MB, moisture has just moved southeast of Missouri and the area is left with unsaturated air. At 850MB, an anticyclone centered over the Kansas-Nebraska border is causing northerly winds and CAA. At the surface this feature is reflected and station plots show northerly winds and temperatures in the high 20s (Fahrenheit) in the area.

The anticyclone will flow southeast Thursday night until midday along the Missouri-Arkansas border, allowing the CAA to continue. Along with clear skies and radiational heating, Friday will be significantly warmer than Thursday. With relatively no moisture in the area, cloud cover will be minimal or non-existent. Winds will be minimal as the center of the anti-cyclone passes just south of Columbia. Midday, CAA will begin to transition to WAA as the anti-cyclone travels downstream, bringing southwesterly winds and creating solenoids. This will continue overnight Friday into Saturday bringing WAA that will persist as Columbia will see unseasonably warm temperatures.

Saturday night, clear skies and radiational cooling are expected. However, temperatures will quickly warm again as flow remains
southerly and temperature gradients suggest increasing WAA throughout the day. Additionally, a low pressure system will approach from due west and bring moisture into Missouri. This system is expected to bring rotational energy and lift sufficient for stratiform rain beginning Sunday evening. SREF plumes are clustered into a warmer and cooler group for Sunday. dPROG/dt analysis suggest a cooling trend in more recent SREF runs. Therefore, it is expected that the temperatures will be in the mid to high 40's. QPF SREF plumes do not inspire confidence as the spread ranges from 0.02 inch to 1.04 inches with relatively no clustering. Moreover, dPROG/dt suggests an increasing trend. We expect around 0.5 inch of rain. Future forecasters should monitor the system and its expected precipitation output.

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