Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 22-26

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. 36-40

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 20-24

Thursday - AM Clouds/PM Clearing. High: 28-32

Thursday Night -  Clear skies. Low: 18-22

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The current partly cloudy skies will continue overnight into tomorrow with seasonal high temperatures. Clouds will increase going into tomorrow night and temperatures will fall to below average temperatures as a cold front will start to approach the the area. Thursday will remain cloudy until the afternoon when the cold front will pass through the area. This cold front will drop the high temperatures to below seasonal values. The clear skies will remain into Thursday night which will allow the low temperatures to drop to the coldest of the week.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: February 18, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main topic of this forecast period is the seasonal temperatures the will continue until Thursday, then an approaching cold front which will drop the temperatures to the upper teens Thursday night. Along with the cold front, the skies will clear which will contribute to the cold temperatures. 

Model guidance suggests a general model blend for the next 48 hours, 06z GEFS for temperatures and 18z NAM and 12z GFS soundings for sky conditions.

Current set up has Columbia under a 250mb zonal flow. This will pattern will continue until Wednesday night when a weak shortwave will make its way into the area. In terms of 500mb circulation, there is a lack of circulation until early Thursday morning. This circulation gives an indication of a potential frontal passage. There doesn't appear to be much UVM as well as the highest UVM values will be no higher than 5 ubar/s. The 700mb RH values will remain very dry all the way into Thursday morning with values no higher than 20%. The RH values will increase going into early Thursday morning and reach as high as 90% which could indicate the potential for precipitation, and with the abundance of cold air in place would be a snow potential. The possibility of any snow doesn't look very good due to the lack of UVM during this period though. Once the cold front passes, 18z NAM and 12z GFS soundings indicate the column drying out and a backing wind profile. This will give Columbia clear skies overnight Thursday. This will allow for Thursday night to be the coldest night of the week.

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