Monday, February 3, 2020

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 32-36

Tuesday - Overcast. Freezing Drizzle. High: 32-36

Tuesday Night - Overcast. Freezing Drizzle into snow. Low:26-30

Wednesday - Overcast. Light snow. High: 28-32

Thursday - Decreasing clouds. High: 28-32

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Clouds will continue to increase as the cold front off to our west approaches. Temperatures will drop signifinatly from the record breaking high temperatures we had on Sunday and Monday. The clouds will continue into Tuesday while the precipitation brought in by the front will begin to fall. Freezing drizzle will be expected late Tuesday into the night hours. As saturation increaseses, snow fall into Wendesday afternoon is the most likely from of precipitation. As the cold front moves out late Wednesday, another round of cold moves in right behing it.
Forecasters: Owens, Savoy, Ritter
Issued:  10:00am: February 3, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 

The current models of choice for the forecast period are the GFS, HREF, SREF, and RAP. Currently, these products are verifying well against live data, and the GFS has also been initializing the most consistently against previous runs. The primary weather threat forecast period is the two fronts that will move over Columbia, Tuesday and Thursday.

Currently, there is a front over Kansas that is moving East. This front will move over central Missouri this evening. The primary concern with this front is if this is going to produce precip and in which form. Whilst the influence of the front will cause cig to thicken and degrease, to CAT A conditions, which may cause delays to air travel. The GFS and RAP model Skew-Ts are currently projecting dry conditions in the lower to mid-levels, however, the SREF plumes are showing a small spike in the probability of precip and three-hour precip, 0.02. Because of this, we are taking out the rain showers.

After FROPA, temperatures will plummet due to CAA, causing the record-breaking temperatures, earlier in the week, to be longed for. With this, the Rocky Mountian Low will push into the Central Missouri area and bring snowfall. This will primarily be influenced by the front, however, the dry air in the mid and upper levels will be fairly dry and not able to support the microphysics of snowfall. As such any precip received will most freezing drizzle.

For Wednesday, the primary issue will be snowfall. As the atmosphere will be saturated up to the 250-mb level, there is quite a high probability of seeder-feeder set up. The main issue is going to be timing and amounts that this system produces. GFS SKEW-T is currently showing the most likely time to be 12Z, whist SREF is showing start times to be closer to 06Z.

After the Rocky Mountian Low passes to the East of Missouri, the cloud cover will clear out. Temperatures will still remain low, which will help any snowfall remain, for the Thursday, and quite possibly Friday.

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