Monday, February 3, 2020

Monday- Increasing clouds. High: 62-66

Monday Night- Overcast. Rain after 9pm. Low: 32-36

Tuesday- Overcast. Morning rain, transitioning to sleet. High: 32-36

Tuesday Night- Overcast. Light snow. Low: 24-28

Wednesday- Decreasing clouds. High: 30-34

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Spring-like conditions stick around in Columbia through Monday. Southerly winds not only funnel in warmer temperatures, but moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Cloud cover will increase today, and rain is possible overnight. A cold front will move through the Midwest overnight allowing for temperatures to drop through Tuesday; the forecasted high in the mid 30s tomorrow will be reached in the morning. As temperatures drop tomorrow, sleet is possible in the afternoon, transitioning to snow by tomorrow evening and sticking overnight. Accumulations are small--only a few inches expected at most. Moisture finally moves to the east by Wednesday as clouds decrease, but cold air stick around.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: February 3, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main topic for this forecast will be the the approaching cold front and the precipitation that it brings with it. Model verification data from the Weather Prediction Center suggests using a mix of NAM and ensemble data. Therefore, the NAM, GEFS, and SREF were all used in this forecast.

Upper air data at 250mb from the NAM shows mostly zonal flow through Monday with a trough located over the Rockies. As a precursor to the upcoming trough, SW winds continue to bring moisture and warm air from the Gulf. As we get closer to the surface we begin to see a shortwave trough begin to develop over Colorado and Kansas, helping develop this cold front. At 3Z Tuesday morning winds begin to shift counterclockwise from the surface indicative of backing and cold air advection. While this cold front will certainly drop temperatures, the lack of a strong temperature gradient and little forcing causes little concern for any serious precipitation amounts. Around 5Z we are saturated from the surface to 800mb suggesting rain with temps above freezing to start out our Tuesday. We can expect light rain throughout most of the day as we remain saturated. However, as temps continue to drop as the cold front passes we can expect the rain to transition to sleet and mixed precipitation for the evening hours around 16Z. That will transition to all snow around 21Z as we are saturated and below freezing from the surface to 600mb. Clouds will begin to break apart early morning Wednesday, but temps will still remain in the low 30s for the day.

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