Monday, February 10, 2020

Monday - Scattered clouds. High: 36-40

Monday Night -  Becoming overcast. Low: 26-30

Tuesday - Overcast. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Overcast. Low: 30-34

Wednesday - Overcast. Snow transitioning into sleet back into snow. High: 36-40

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A cold front moved through the Midwest late yesterday allowing for cooler, more seasonal temperatures today. We expect to see the sun peek through broken clouds a few times today. Moisture sets in overnight and overcast skies dominate over the rest of the forecast period. We expect this to fall as precipitation on Wednesday. Temperatures will be hovering around the freezing line, so we should see more than one precipitation type. As of now, snow will begin Wednesday morning, transitioning into a rain/snow mix (sleet), and then back into snow by sunset.
Forecasters: Clemons, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: February 10, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
The 06Z GFS and 09Z SREF plumes were primarily used in this forecast, as suggested by the WPC. A cold front slowly moved across Missouri yesterday which brought our temperatures below freezing overnight once again. Soundings indicate backing wind profiles which suggest CAA and low moisture advection. Today looks to be an average early February day. Surface maps indicate a disturbance tonight where a shortwave could possibly dump some light snow on Columbia. However, soundings suggest a large dry layer close to the surface, and the CAA mentioned before indicate little to no moisture support. The atmosphere finally becomes saturated late tonight and into Tuesday where soundings indicate WAA and winds from the south, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to funnel into the Midwest. Forecasted high temperatures are a little warmer on Tuesday due to this. All eyes shift towards Wednesday as saturation occurs from the surface up to about 600mb.

Yet again this winter, Mid-Missouri is the victim of a tricky forecast with different types of precipitation possible on Wednesday. The 540gpm line hovers over Columbia, shifting slightly to our north and south Starting around 12-15Z Wednesday, the 540gpm line shifts slightly to our South. Surface temperatures look to be right at 0 degrees Celsius with no warm layers aloft which suggests that this precipitation will begin as snow. We predict to slowly warm up through the day on Wednesday. By 18Z, we begin to make the transition into mixed precipitation. A warm layer begins to form with temperatures still hovering around freezing, which allows us to lean towards sleet as our p-type. Upper air analyses don't support a pure rain sounding at this time. By 03Z Thursday, the 540gpm line shifts well to our south where we expect remaining precipitation to fall as snow, ending by sunrise Thursday morning.

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