Tuesday Night - Rain/Snow Showers. Low: 26-30
Wednesday - AM Snow/Afternoon Clearing. High: 32-36
Wednesday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 18-22
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 38-42
Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 38-42
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Discussion:Rain and snow showers will continue into tonight, and changeover to all snow is anticipated overnight with the rate of snowfall being light in nature. The snow will continue into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, the skies will start to clear out and the skies will remain clear overnight into Thursday morning with cold temperatures overnight as well as high pressure takes over. Thursday there will be some increasing clouds, but not totally overcast and temperatures will be slightly below average. Overnight Thursday looks to remain partly to mostly cloudy with below average temperatures as well.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued: 5:00pm: February 25, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Model guidance suggests a NAM/ECMWF/UKMET model blend. The NAM was used for this forecast period, and SREF plumes were used for temperatures.
The main concern for this forecast period is the potential for rain and snow, and when the rain will transition to all snow, the intensity, and how much snow will fall.
Current set up at 250mb has the polar jet to the south of Columbia putting us in the base of the trough. This trough is positively tilted indicating that the system is hasn't matured yet. The system is also not vertically stacked with the 20z low's 250 mb located over western Kansas, and the surface low over southern Ohio. Even though the system isn't fully mature, the potential of a rain/snow mix looks to occur throughout the evening with a changeover to all snow starting around around 10 to 11pm tonight. The snow intensity doesn't appear to be much more than some light snow showers. This is because even though there is areas of circulation at 500mb over central Missouri and 700 mb RH values at 90%. The layer of cold air isn't very deep and there is a lack of UVM during this time. This potential for light snow will last until early tomorrow morning. During tomorrow afternoon, Columbia will be situated on the backside of the surface low which will cause the winds to shift to out of the north bringing in cold, and dry Canadian air for tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Thursday, and Thursday night, there will be an increase in clouds, however not totally overcast allowing the sun to pop out during the afternoon. This will warm the afternoon temperatures up somewhat, but temperatures will still remain below season values. Friday looks to be a repeat of Thursday.