Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Tuesday Night - Cloudy, sleet possible. Low: 26-30

Wednesday- Overcast. snow showers. High: 28-32


Wednesday Night - Overcast. Snow showers. Low: 24-28

Thursday - Overcast. AM snow/PM clouds High: 28-32

Friday- Cloudy. High: 30-34

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A cloudy and cold night is in store for Mizzou but winter weather is on its way once again.  Sleet is expected to fall overnight causing slick roadways and elevated surfaces.  Wednesday widespread snow is expected not just in Columbia but state wide.  Snow showers are expected to last all day Wednesday and continue until mid-morning Thursday.  Once the snow showers come to an end, cloudy skies will continue into Friday.  Wind chills for the coming days will be in the upper teens to low twenties, so bundle up!
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: February 4, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
Current set up is that there is a 250mb low that is set up to the southwest in the four corners region. This low will slowly make its way into the southern Missouri/northern Arkansas region. This well give us the set up for the winter storm that will impact the state for tomorrow.

The model that was used for this forecast was NAM and SREF Plumes for temperatures and snow timing and NAM 18z sounding for precipitation type.

Currently, we are under cloudy skies and light drizzle. That light drizzle will begin to transition over to sleet as we head into the overnight hours, This is because when looking at the sounding. There is a warm nose between 700-850mb and the temperatures above 700mb is below freezing. The column is saturated as well. This means that there will be freezing precipitation from 700mb and up. There will be melting from 700-850mb and re-freezing from 850mb to the surface. This will constitute the potential for sleet overnight. The warm nose will begin to disappear at 3am and will be fully below the freezing line at 8am. There will be a break in the precipitation until 8am. This is because there will be a lack of UVM and there will be a dry layer from 900mb down to the surface. The column will begin to re-saturate and be fully saturated at 8am. Along with the re-saturation, the 700mb RH values will increase to 95-100% at 8am also and these high RH values will remain all day. This indicates that the snow will begin tomorrow at 8am and continue throughout the entire day. CAPE values will also be anticipated  to be 40-50 J/Kg. This could give us the potential for thundersnow tomorrow afternoon. If this occurs, then snow totals will be higher than initially forecasted. As of right now though, it looks like the snowfall totals will be on the range 3 to 6 inches. This winter storm will move out of the area Thursday morning but there will be cloud cover remaining the rest of the day into Thursday night. Friday will also remain cloudy and there will be wind chill values in the upper teens to low twenties, so bundle up!

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