Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

 

 

Thursday - Mostly clear. High: 60-64

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42
 

Friday - Becoming mostly cloudy by evening. High: 56-60

 

Saturday - Cloudy skies. Rain likely during the day. High: 56-60

 

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Discussion: 

A cold front passed through Columbia this morning between 10 and 11am CDT according to surface observations out of Columbia Regional Airport. This front did not bring with it a sudden drop in temperatures nor did it bring in any moisture. It did however, bring with it an increase in winds. Wind speeds at Sanborn field peaked at about 25 mph this afternoon. These increased winds out of the northwest will continue to knock down our temperatures. Columbia will see much cooler high's and low's to end off our work week. Thursday night will likely dip as low as the upper 30s. Sensitive plants should be brought indoors or covered in the event of a frost. We will remain dry until Friday night until our next system brings with it cloudy skies and rain overnight into Saturday to kick off the weekend.

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Forecaster: Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 30 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Temperatures at Sanborn peaked at 74.5 F at 2:19pm CDT. Winds have since shifted from a WSW direction to a NNW direction and pressure has begun rising. All indications that cold frontal passage already occurred. A look at the METAR plots around the state of Missouri, overlain with RAP surface analysis loops indicate FROPA occurred at KCOU between 15z and 16z. A weaker front, void of moisture, this cold front mainly brought with it an increase in winds as KCOU METAR observed a wind increase from 5-10 kts prefrontal passage to ~20kts post frontal. Behind the front, high pressure from the surface to 850 hPa has already begun setting up and will keep our skies clear going forward.

The main concern for this forecast period is the potential first frost of the season as temperatures will continue to plummet to end off the week. Attention then turns to the next system that will drop out of the north into the Midwest that will bring with it chances for rain into Saturday. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used as there was consensus between the two models in terms of timing of the precip Friday night. 

Much of south-central Canada and the Upper Midwest remain on the poleward side of LW trough for the entire forecast period so suggests GFS and NAM plots of 250-hPa heights and wind. This will allow cold air to surge south. Both GFS and NAM 700-hPa RH plots are in good agreement that moisture associated with the parent LW trough will stay confined to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds at 850 hPa will stay out of the NNW, allowing the cold air to penetrate further south into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Thursday night is where the GFS and NAM consensus diverges slightly. The GFS wants to keep the 850 hPa 0-C isotherm to the north of Columbia while the NAM is slightly more aggressive with the southern surge, bringing the isotherm further south than Columbia. Temperatures could very well dip into the upper 30s and possibly lower if the NAM has its way. Would not be surprised to see the potential for frost early Friday morning as skies will remain clear and winds relatively calm. 

Attention turns to a SW seen in 500-hPa heights and vorticity that both models want propagating along the parent LW mentioned earlier. As the aforementioned high pressure at 850 hPa and the surface slides to the east over the Middle Mississippi Valley, winds will see a shift from northwest to southwest coinciding with the wave's arrival. The LLJ originating from the Gulf sets up over the Southern Plains that will advect plenty of moisture into the Middle Mississippi Valley during the day on Friday. The moisture, combined with the dynamically primed SW will result in high chances for precip Friday evening into Saturday. GFS soundings show a moistening of the lower levels with a closing "zipper" at the surface occurring around 21z Friday afternoon. Saturation from 700 hPa to the surface continues through Friday night and into Saturday morning. Will defer to later forecasting shifts to narrow down the timing of both the precip's arrival and departure.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 48-52

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny and windy. High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

 

Thursday - Mostly sunny and windy. High: 60-64

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 38-42

 

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Discussion: 

We saw a high of 66 this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will remain over us throughout the night helping to trap the warm air closer to the surface, leading to a warmer night. Clouds will clear out during Wednesday as a warm front pushes through the area, creating warmer conditions for tomorrow afternoon. However, a cold front follow right behind it and will cause chillier temperatures overnight into Thursday, when temperatures will be similar to what we saw today. Thursday night looks to be one of the coldest nights we've seen in a long time. This is due to the passing cold front and clear skies. Little to no moisture will be associated with either of these fronts.

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Forecaster: Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  5 PM CDT 29 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was created through a general model blend from the 12Z NAM and GFS, supplemented with the SREF and GEFS plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is a very brief warm-up expected tomorrow.

Today, we reached a high in the mid 60s as breezy conditions persisted. Mid-MO is still dealing with the effects of the low pressure system currently over eastern Canada with a moisture-filled cold front stretching south. This system brought us much-needed rain on Sunday, as well as a drop in temperatures about 5-10 degrees below average for the end of September. A prominent trough at 250mb continues to encapsulate most of the eastern CONUS as we've been dealing with meridional flow aloft. The low is continuing to provide a larger pressure gradient over Missouri, providing those windy conditions at the surface and cooler temperatures from the northwestern direction of the winds on the backside of the low.

Our focus is now shifting to the occluded system that sits just to our north. A warm front is expected to stretch south and force winds to veer with height. WAA is expected across Mid-MO overnight, but moisture is not associated with these systems. Very dry air exists to our west, so moisture and even cloud cover is not particularly expected during this time period (unlike the cold front we saw Sunday). Cold FROPA is expected to occur within 18 hours of the warm FROPA tonight, and this sudden shift in winds will also cause our stronger wind gusts to persist. Since the atmosphere looks dry from the ground up Wednesday through Thursday, temperatures will be much cooler, especially Thursday night, as that is expected to be our first full clear night after cold FROPA. Future forecasters should monitor the magnitude of the blast of cold air expected behind tomorrow's cold front. We decreased temperatures slightly from what previous forecasters wrote, but we could potentially see some more below-average temperatures as we begin the month of October.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather 

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66

Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 46-50

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High 58-62

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 Like yesterday, today will have similar temperatures and clearer skies during the afternoon. Tuesday night the temperature dips down into the upper-40s with a few clouds moving into mid-Missouri. Temperatures rise Wednesday due to a warm air mass filling in the area. Wednesday night, a cold front will push through the area, reinforcing the colder Canadian air mass and forcing the warm air mass to depart. This will result in temperatures dropping into the low- to mid-40s overnight Wednesday. Thursday, temperatures will follow similar trends to Wednesday night with cooler high temperatures near 60. We remain dry for the duration of the forecast period.

 

 

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 29 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

For this forecast period, our Primary concern was determining surface temperatures, especially on Wednesday. We used a 

blend of the NAM and GFS, supplemented by SREF plumes to help us get a better handle on temperatures.

 

Currently, mid-Missouri is under the influence of a deep upper-level trough. The moisture in the mid-levels and low-levels of the 

atmosphere that brought us a good deal of cloud cover yesterday has departed. Northerly/Northwesterly flow at the low levels of 

the atmosphere continues from yesterday, though the near-surface winds have weakened. At the surface, with mostly clear skies 

and northwesterly winds, we experienced the coldest night of the season thus far last night, and we will continue to experience 

below-avergae temperatures today.

 

As we look ahead to the next few days, we will experience large temperature swings from day to day. Per the model blend, the 

upper-level trough that is overhead currently is expected begin to modulate to the east this afternoon, departing the region entirely 

by Wednesday morning. Mid-level moisture will be non-existent, and lower-level flow will shift from northwesterly to 

southwesterly by early Wednesday morning as well. This will allow the warm airmass over the southwestern CONUS to build 

into the region on Wednesday. Therefore, temperatures should remain cool today, with afternoon highs nearly mirroring those of 

yesterday, but we should experience a significant warmup for Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening, however, the upper-

level trough is expected to once again deepen into the central CONUS, bringing with it a cold front and a reinforcing shot of cold 

air, driving the warm airmass back in the southwestern CONUS. This cold front will still be devoid of any moisture, so it will pass 

with very little fanfare. Low-level winds will shift back to northerly/northwesterly, further aiding in ushering in colder air. 

Furthermore, Wednesday night and Thursday will be much cooler, with temperatures during those periods similar to, if not slightly

cooler than last night and today, respectively. Cloud cover looks to be a non-factor during this period, with mostly clear skies 

prevailing.

 

 

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Monday Night - Partly cloudy--passing clouds. Low: 42-46

 

 

Tuesday - Mostly sunny morning, partly sunny afternoon. High: 62-66

 

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 46-50

 

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

 

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Discussion: 

After the cold front passed through yesterday, today we saw much cooler temperatures

and windier conditions. Tonight we will see passing clouds and temperatures in the mid

40s as we still feel the effects from the cold front passage yesterday. Tuesday will look very similar to today until later in the evening, as winds start to shift out of the south and warm us up as we head into Wednesday. From these winds we expect to see drier conditions leading to clearer skies.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 28 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

We primarily used a general model blend from the 12Z NAM and GFS for this forecast, with help from the SREF and GEFS ensembles. The main focus for this time period is varying cloud cover and a warm-up in the middle of the week.

Yesterday, we saw a fairly strong cold front pass across the state, and it was associated with a lot of moisture and windier conditions due to a vertically stacked cyclone attached to it with a central pressure of 992mb. A much-needed rainfall was delivered to Mid-MO, but we are still experiencing effects from this large system today. Surface temperatures dropped to the mid 60s today as northerly winds gusting up to 20kts continued to funnel in cooler air. A larger pressure divide sits across Missouri from the backside of the aforementioned low pressure system, and this is causing winds to gust a bit higher. The jet stream at 250mb this morning showed a negatively-tilted trough that dug across the central CONUS, meaning that the front's effects were starting to weaken over Mid-MO, but tomorrow is expected to be another cooler day as the low moves further to the east.

A rather sudden shift in winds is forecasted for Tuesday evening, as Skew-Ts for this time show veering winds with height which suggests WAA. Looking at all heights, this air is coming from an area of dry conditions, so we don't expect moisture to advect towards us. Temperatures will soar into the mid 70s on Wednesday, but the WPC suggests another cold FROPA will occur later in the day--this one not associated with moisture. Winds start to back and advect cold air into Columbia as another trough tries to dive south into the central CONUS. Future forecasters should monitor the timing of this cold front--if it passes earlier on Wednesday, temperatures might not make it to the mid 70s.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Monday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66

 

 

Monday Night - Variable amounts of cloud cover. Low: 42-46

 

Tuesday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66

 

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 46-50

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76

 

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Discussion: 

With  rain departing mid-Missouri this morning, we are left with a positively pleasant forecast. Heading out the door this morning, there was definitely a fall chill in the air as a cold front pushed through the region yesterday. With northerly winds and partial cloud cover remaining from yesterday's system, today should be a cool but beautiful day with highs in the mid-60s. Tonight will be the coldest night this area has experienced since Spring, with lows in the mid-40s. Tuesday should be pretty close to a carbon copy of today, but as winds shift from northerly to southwesterly overnight Tuesday night, much warmer air will move into central Missouri. Clouds will largely clear out as well, leaving us with a warm and sunny Wednesday.

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Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 28 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The biggest concerns with this forecast will be cloud cover Monday through Tuesday night, and temperature changes between Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS was used as primary guidance for this forecast, supplemented by SREF plumes.

This morning, clouds and rain associated with the cold front that pushed through central Missouri yesterday have moved well off to our East. Behind this feature, an upper-level trough was digging into the central CONUS. Mid-level moisture was present near the front stretching from Louisiana into Ontario and across the upper-Midwest in the vicinity of the upper-level low. Low-level winds were out of the north/northwest. These winds were quite strong, too, with speeds AOA 40 kts at 850 hPa. At the surface, temperatures were cool, only in the 50s, with light northwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover.

As we progress through the day today and into tomorrow, the GFS guidance suggests that the upper-level trough will continue to dig down into the central CONUS. As it does this, there may be one or more small, fast-moving disturbances that push through our area. Each disturbance will likely bring some cloud cover with it, but, per GFS Skew-T's, it looks like the air near the surface is too dry to support even a sprinkle from this system. Overall, between now and Tuesday evening, there will be plenty of sunny time, but also plenty of cloudy time as well. Because these disturbances are moving so quickly, the cloudy periods will not last long; therefore, I have opted to use "periods of sun and clouds" or "variable amounts of cloud cover" to most accurately address the forecast sky conditions over the next 36 hours. By Tuesday night, it looks like much of our cloud cover will exit, and we will be left with mostly sunny skies by Wednesday.

As for temperatures, because periods of clouds are expected today along with winds backing from NW to SW with height, I only expect afternoon highs to reach the mid-60s. Because tonight will be the first night after a cold fropa, overnight lows will be in the mid-40s, some of the coldest we've experienced in months. Tomorrow looks almost exactly like today in terms of wind direction and cloud cover, so I expect afternoon highs tomorrow will be very similar to today's. Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds should shift to the SW, with some veering in the lowest 150 hPa of the atmosphere. This would be indicative of WAA, and with the clouds clearing out, I do expect a much warmer day on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-70s.