Monday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 54-58
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 72-76
Tuesday Night - Becoming overcast. Low: 54-58
Wednesday - Cloudy. An isolated shower is possible. High: 70-74
Wednesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 52-56
Discussion:
While tomorrow is the first day of fall, today's weather was very autumn-like. Temperatures were in the mid-70s with little to no cloud cover. However, the next few days will be dependent on the path of Tropical Storm Beta. We expect at the very least a lot more cloud cover ahead of this system, but at this point, temperatures don't look to change too much. The path of Beta further inland is still uncertain, but we could potentially see rain showers from this on Wednesday if enough moisture is funneled into Mid-MO.
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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons, McGuire
Issued: 5 PM CDT 21 September 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
This forecast was generated from a general model blend of the 18Z NAM and GFS, but the main focus for this
forecast period was on the track of the slow-moving Tropical Storm Beta about to make landfall on the Gulf coast
in Texas.
Currently, the CONUS is under zonal flow, and the eastern U.S. is being influenced by a anticyclone over the NE.
As this anticyclone continues to move to the NE, Columbia is seeing SE winds, and that has allowed temperatures
to warm up from the upper 60s on Saturday to the middle 70s this afternoon. Calm weather has engulfed most of
the eastern CONUS, but the slow movement of T.S. Beta is set to disrupt this.
At this point, T.S. Beta's track is still uncertain, as it has not made landfall in Texas yet. The NHC suggests a more
easterly path as the cyclone weakens and moves inward with the LLJ over the southern CONUS. If that were to
occur, Mid-MO wouldn't see any rain. However, if it's path shifts northward, we could see more moisture advected
into Columbia which would help us reach saturation at more significant heights. Skew-T's for Tuesday and
Wednesday suggest saturation near 850mb which would be indicative of low-level clouds ahead of Beta, but dry
conditions exist higher in the atmosphere. Skew-T's also suggest veering winds as this system inches closer to us,
so this could lead to WAA which would assist moisture advection at this time. Either way, models suggested increased
cloud cover ahead of Beta, and this will lead to slightly warmer nighttime temperatures and slightly cooler daytime
temperatures. Low temperature are expected to cool heading into Wednesday night as clouds exit the region, allowing
for radiation to effectively rise in the atmosphere and clear out.
Future forecasters need to monitor the track of T.S. Beta, because a more northern track would allow for higher
confidence in rain for the middle of the week. The track will most likely be more well-known after Beta makes
landfall, which is expected to be tomorrow. The timing of its landfall could also impact the timing of the increased
cloud cover that we expect in Mid-MO.
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