Monday, February 10, 2020

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night -  Becoming overcast. Low: 26-30

Tuesday - Overcast. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Overcast. Low: 30-34

Wednesday - Overcast. Snow transitioning into sleet back into snow. High: 34-38

Thursday - Overcast.  High: 22-26

Thanks to for the icons!

Conditions will remain cold and cloudy Monday night all the way until Tuesay night as things begin to pick up. As a cold front begins to approach, precipitation will lead the way. Snow should be expected Wednesday morning.  As temperature increase throughout the day the snow will transition into a snow/rain mix and back to snow again as the temperatures decrease at the end of the day. This will lead into a cold front passage Wednesday night bring colder temperature into Thursday.
Forecasters: Owens, Savoy, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: February 10, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class) 
Over Monday evening through Tuesday, the weather will remain cold and cloudy. As winds shift to the south, ahead of the incoming cold front, moist air advection and slight WAA will increase over central Missouri. With this, clouds will thicken and temperatures will increase. This will bring us into Wednesday, and the primary forecast hazard of snowfall vs a rain/snow mix.

Whilst the NAM, GFS, HREF, and SREF were consulted in regards to Wednesday, the ultimate discussion was to use the NAM for precip type and the SREF for timing. Whilst the SREF handled the overall pattern better, the NAM is trending slightly colder. In addition to this, the GFS is not initializing well between the 66hr and 69hr, jumping from 00C to -10C between these two times.

With this in mind, current projections are showing that snowfall will begin 1500Z on Wednesday ( 0900 local time). During the daytime there will be a small increase in temperatures, that will allow the snow to slight transition to a snow/rain mix. As the day progresses evaporative cooling will cause another drop in temperatures, which will have the rain/snow transition back to snow. Once FROPA occurs at midnight on Wednesday temperatures will begin to fall.

No comments:

Post a Comment