Thursday, December 5, 2019

Thursday Night- Cloudy. Low: 34-38

Friday-  Cloudy in the morning, with clearing skies in the afternoon. High: 40-44

Friday Night- Mostly Clear skies. High: 34-38

Saturday - Mostly Clear skies, clouds moving in overnight. Low: 46-50

Sunday- Mostly cloudy. High: 54-58

Thanks to for the icons!

On Thurday evening there will be some cloud cover over the Columbia region which will stick around until Friday morning. Friday afternoon will bring clear skies as a low pressure moves away from Central Missouri and bring fair conditions into Saturday. On Sunday there will be a front to the west of the region, which will bring in clouds just in time for finals at Mizzou next week. 
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard 
Issued:  17:00 December 05, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Upper Air Data: 12Z Diagnostics
The 300-mb chart from 12 Zulu Upper air is primarily showing a well amplified ridge-trough meridional pattern. The jet placement is showing that Columbia is on the left entrance region of the jet, with a jet max of 90 knots over the Southern Alabama / Mississippi region.
On the 500-mb, there is a low pressure system forming off the California coast, with a ridge over the Rocky Mountains and a trough over the eastern CONUS.
The 700-mb primarily shows a tightening pressure gradient over Central Missouri and Dry Air Advection (DAA).
The 850-mb chart is showing a weak high pressure over the Rocky Mountain region, and DAA over Central Missouri.
With the SFC chart, there are light winds over Columbia and light winds and a front to the east of Columbia.

Radar / Vis: Radar is showing no echos over Columbia. Vis Sat (Blue Band 1 and Red Band 2) showing that there is a low over the Four Corners region. With this system, there exists some clouds moving from this region into the Midwest. 
IR / WV: IR is confirming that there are upper-level clouds over the station and WV is confirming jet placement.

Observed Skew-T: Upstream Skew-T is taken form KTOP (Topeka, KS), at 12Z. The sounding shows the atmosphere as stable with a radiation inversion and light winds. 

Model Verification:
KCOU GFS and NAM MOS are currently handling temperatures fairly well. Temperatures recorded from the obs are 57 degrees with the GFS needing a 3-degree adjustment up and the NAM needing a 0-degree adjustment.
NAM 18z model SKEW-T is currently 6 knots short of current conditions at KCOU. However, is verifying well on cloud heights.
SREF/HREF: Both are verifying well with the 12z Upper-Air package. In addition to this, the moisture on the 700-mb level is verifying well with cloud heights.

Forecast Reasoning:
Thursday Night: The primary issue with Thursday night is if there will be any precipitation from the clouds streaming into the region from the Four Corner's Low. While there is snowfall in the Wyoming / Colorado region of the US there has been no precipitation outside of the Rockies. The low-level pressure gradient is also fairly weak giving Columbia light winds.
Friday: The primary issue will be how much influence the Four Corner's Low will have on the Mid Missouri Region. Currently, the HREF is forecasting the ridge to the west of the Low to push it out of the Four Corner's region and into the Great Plains. As the Low moves to the east of Central Missouri, it will help clear out any remaining clouds Friday afternoon.
Saturday: During the day, the NAM Skew-T is forecasting a substance inversion over Columbia. With this, any real cloud development will be capped at 900-mb. In addition to this, the atmosphere is dry throughout most of the column and Omega values are non-existent, which also supports a clear, blue and 22 type day. 
Sunday: Sunday's conditions will primarily be caused by a cold front moving into Central Missouri in the evening hours. Any notable precip will be primarily confined to the Monday morning time frame. Pre-Frontal conditions will increase the RH values and lift and contribute to cloud formation throughout the day Sunday.

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