Monday, September 17, 2018

Monday Afternoon - Mostly sunny.  High: near 90.

Tonight - Mainly clear skies. Low:  66-70.

Tuesday -  Morning sun giving way to some afternoon clouds.  High: 88-92.

Tuesday Night -  Partly cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy with isolated afternoon showers. High: near 90.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Hazy, humid August-like weather will persist for the start of the week. A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes currently extends southwest into Missouri. This arrangement will keep the remnants of Hurricane Florence to our south and east. Meanwhile, a new low pressure system will take shape to our west over the next few days. This morning's ridge will slowly break down as the week progresses and warm, southerly flow will filter back into the area. Relief from the summer-like temperatures can be expected as we get closer to the weekend. 
Forecaster:  Carlson, Market, and Hirsch
Issued:  9:52 a.m., September 17, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The 06 Z NAM was used to forecast this morning. Analysis of Florence and the existance of the ridge over the great lakes matched best with the NAM handling the system. Moisture from Florence is limited as the axis of dilitation exist from central IN south to northern-central MS. The ridge breaks down and southerly flow moves into the area. This ridge slowly deteroiates as a warm front develops extending from central CO to southern MN.  There will be an area of rain to our north while we remain in the warm sector. Temperature during this time period will be roughly 10 degrees above normal. Sun looks to be persistent for the first few days.For now, moisture remains limited and showers looks possible, albeit scattered on Wednesday afternoon, after 21 Z. The NAM holds off on rain while the GFS is more aggressive for the rain event. SREF also brings in light rain. This is an area for further forecasters to watch as we progress throughout the week.

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