Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Tonight - Isolated showers early, partly cloudy.  Low: 68-72.


Wednesday - Mix of sun and clouds. High: 90-94.

Wednesday Night -  Mainly clear.  Low: 68-72.

Thursday - Mix of sun and clouds . High:  90-94.

Friday - Mostly cloudy. High: Near 80.

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Discussion: Tonight an isolated shower may occur with low amounts of rainfall. Warmer conditions will persist tomorrow as we approach near record temperatures.  A mix of sun and clouds is expected for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. The high pressure slowly begins to move off to our east. A big change in weather is possible on Friday. This looks to bring cooler temperatures and a shot of rain, leading to some much needed relief. 
Forecaster:  Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Market, and Hirsch
Issued:  5:02 p.m., September 18, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Regional GOES visible imagery shows a well defined outflow boundary across Northern Missouri drifting south towards Central MO. This is leading to showers and thunderstorms across the area. These should continue to drift south and east throughout the evening prior to sunset and the loss of diurnal heating. QPFs will generally be around 0.1" in areas that see precipitation this evening, with locally higher amounts possible. Attention then turns to near record high temperatures on Wednesday. Strong vertical mixing and warm temperatures at H85 will lead to surface temperatures pushing into the low to mid 90s. Warm air advection will continue throughout the day Wednesday and into Thursday and again will lead to above average temperatures. A lower confidence scenario exists on the day Friday, as the timing of FROPA will have a massive impact on high temperatures and potential precipitation. GFS and NAM appear to be in decent agreement with FROPA during the early afternoon on Friday. Will defer to later shifts in regards to potential precipitation and QPF amounts, with large ensemble spread evident.

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